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Impacts of population growth and climate change on California's future water supplies




Jenkins, Marion W., author
Lund, Jay R., author
Howitt, Richard E., author
U.S. Committee on Irrigation and Drainage, publisher

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CALVIN, an economic-engineering optimization model of California's water supply system, is used to assess the interaction of potential impacts of population growth and climate change on water supplies in California. CALVIN includes the state's surface and groundwater system and is driven by economic values for agricultural and urban water use. Future agricultural and urban demands are represented by water value functions estimated from separate agricultural and urban economic models. In addition, values for hydropower generation and flood damage reductions are being developed for CALVIN to represent these additional water management benefits. This allows CALVIN to re-operate statewide facilities and allocate water supplies to minimize economic losses to agricultural, urban, hydropower, and flooding sectors throughout the system for changes in climate or water demands. Methods for developing economic values of the different water functions and for adjusting hydrologic inputs for climate change in CALVIN are presented. Water supply impacts to agricultural and urban sectors are assessed for a range of population and climate scenarios.


Presented at the 2002 USCID/EWRI conference, Energy, climate, environment and water - issues and opportunities for irrigation and drainage on July 9-12 in San Luis Obispo, California.

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