Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and other quantities for infectious disease models

Abstract

Performing forward sensitivity analysis has been an integral component of mathematical modeling, yet its implementation becomes increasingly difficult with a model's complexity. For infectious disease models in particular, the sensitivity analysis of a parameter known as the basic reproduction number, or R0, has dominated the attention of ecology modelers. While the biological definition of R0 is well established, its mathematical construction is elusive. An index with a concrete mathematical definition that in many cases matches the biological interpretation of R0 is presented. A software package called Sensai that automatically computes this index and its sensitivity analysis is also presented. Other "quantities of interest" that provide similar information to R0 can also be implemented in Sensai and their sensitivities computed. Finally, some example models are presented and analyzed using Sensai.