Mountain Scholar :: Browsing by Author "Loomis, John, advisor"

Browsing by Author "Loomis, John, advisor"

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Open Access
An econometric model of determinants of visitor use on western national forests
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Kasberg, Kevin, author; Loomis, John, advisor; Koontz, Stephen, committee member; Newman, Peter, committee member
The accuracy of visitor use data from the National Visitor Use Monitoring Program (NVUM) allows for testing the relationship between public land visitation and individual site characteristics and facilities. In an attempt to predict visitation on both BLM and USFS lands, forty National Forests in the Western US were chosen for their spatial and landscape resemblance to BLM lands. Using multiple regressions, facility and landscape characteristics have a statistically significant relationship with the four recreation types in NVUM data: Day use developed sites (DUDS), Overnight use developed sites (OUDS), General Forest Area (GFA), and Wilderness. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of prediction calculated using ten out of sample National Forests for Wilderness was lowest at 69%, with OUDS, DUDS and GFA higher at 93%, 103% and 115% respectively. As an alternative method to estimate the predictive power, stepwise procedures were applied to all forty observations. These resulting models were used to construct a spreadsheet calculator that provides an annual visitation prediction for a USFS or BLM land.
Open Access
Bird and rodent pest control in select California crops: economic contributions, impacts, and benefits
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Schein Dobb, Jennifer, author; Loomis, John, advisor; Kling, Robert, committee member; Shwiff, Stephanie, committee member; Anderson, Aaron, committee member
Although numerous factors affect agriculture production, significant yield and quality losses of crops have been attributed to wildlife, insects, and diseases; collectively known as pests. To mitigate pest activity agricultural producers utilize a variety of control tools and techniques including rodenticides, trapping, exclusion, and chemical aversion (Sexton et al., 2007); causing integrated pest management to become an integral part of modern agricultural production. Although crop savings is arguably the most important contribution of pest control, relatively few studies have attempted to quantify prevented crop loss and the economic impacts of these cost savings. This study found that current California control practices as applied to alfalfa, almonds, avocados, carrots, cherries, citrus, grapes, lettuce, melons, peaches, pistachios, rice, strawberries, tomatoes, and walnuts were effective at mitigating crop loss which had the potential to significantly restrict the domestic supply of these agricultural commodities. These practices were shown to lower wholesale prices and were estimated to prevent multi-million dollar losses to California growers, and multi-billion dollar losses to consumers nationwide. In addition to the direct benefits realized through these crop savings, the production and sale of these additional yields further stimulates economic activity within the state. Modeling the forward and backward linkages between California suppliers and consumers enabled monetary flows in secondary markets to be quantified, providing a more conclusive estimate of the total benefits of bird and rodent control in California. This study found that expenditures related to the production of additional yields protected from rodent damage contributed $1.7 billion to California's economy and supported 23,000 jobs, with farm revenue earned on these yields supporting another 11,000 California jobs and contributing nearly $951 million to the state's economy. Findings from this study also estimated that the production of yields protected from bird damage were estimated to contribute $1.39 billion to the state's economy and supported more than 20,000 jobs, with farm revenue earned on these yields supporting another 6,775 jobs and contributing another $565 million to California's economy.
Open Access
Econometrics of market and non-market goods
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Tabatabaei, Maryam, author; Loomis, John, advisor; Koontz, Stephen, committee member; Iverson, Terrence, committee member; McCollum, Daniel, committee member
This dissertation illustrates how different econometric methods can be applied to market and non-market goods. The first essay focuses on forecasting cheddar cheese prices by utilizing time series models from the simplest model autoregressive order 2 AR (2) model, to more complex models such as second order vector autoregressive (VAR(2)) or second order vector error correction models (VECM(2)). One-to twelve month ahead forecast horizons for cheddar cheese levels and difference models were calculated for each forecasting methods for the out of sample time period of January 1990 to December 2013. The forecasts' accuracy was diagnosed by using root mean squared error (RMSE), and Diebold-Mariano (D-M) tests and comparing the forecasted cheddar cheese prices to existing USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) cheddar cheese prices, and Futures. The D-M test is comparable to the RMSE test for forecasting price level, AR (2) forecasting method has lower forecasted error in January and February, and VAR (2) is more accurate from March onward. VAR (2) has the lowest RMSE for forecasting price level. In the forecasting model of price differences AR (2) forecasting method results are more accurate from January to April and VAR (2) has more accurate results from May onwards, and VECM (2) were never better than simpler forecasting methods in both forecasting price levels and price differences models. In the second essay, Colorado households' non-market values for two forest management options for reducing intensity of future wildfires and associated non-market environmental effects of wildfires has been calculated. The first policy is the traditional harvesting of pine beetle killed trees and burn on-site. The second policy also involves harvesting trees but involves moving the trees offsite and converting them into biochar, thus reducing some of the environmental effects associated with burning on-site. A contingent valuation method mail survey was implemented to evaluate these two management options. The survey achieved a 47% response rate. I used a non-parametric Turnbull estimator to calculate the willingness to pay (WTP) for burn on-site and off-site biochar conversion. The calculated WTP for burn on-site and off-site biochar conversion is $411 per household, and $470, respectively. In the third essay, household's non-market values for forest management options for avoiding forest fires in Larimer County have been calculated using a different stated preference survey design. A thousand surveys were mailed that asked respondents to rank the management options (including their costs to households) from best to worst. We used rank ordered and conditional logit models to calculate the WTP for burn on-site and biochar option. The rank ordered model outperformed the conditional logit in terms of consistency with economic theory. However even the rank ordered logit had insignificant cost coefficient for the burn on site option. The annual willingness to pay (WTP) for the biochar option, in rank-ordered logit model is $508 per household.
Open Access
Estimating farmers' willingness to pay for improved irrigation: an economic study of the Bontanga Irrigation Scheme in northern Ghana
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Alhassan, Mustapha, author; Frasier, Marshall, advisor; Loomis, John, advisor; Davies, Stephen, committee member; Andales, Allan, committee member
This thesis estimates the willingness of farmers under the Bontanga Irrigation Scheme (BIS) in Northern Ghana to pay for improved irrigation services. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) was used in this study and farmers were randomly selected for interviewing based on the location of their farms (upstream, middle, and downstream) within the scheme. The payment card elicitation format was used and the data were analyzed using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) procedure that is capable of accommodating the intervals in payment card data. The mean willingness to pay was found to be GHC 16.32 (US$ 8.50) per ha per year and the median was GHC 14.00 (US$ 7.29) per ha per year. Tobit regression model was also used to estimate the mean number of labor days farmers under the scheme would be willing to contribute to improve the project. The mean labor days was found to be 5.26 days per year and the median was 5.28 days per year.
Open Access
Measuring citizens' preferences for protecting environmental resources: applications of choice experiment surveys, social network analysis and Deliberative Citizens' juries
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Geleta, Solomon, author; Loomis, John, advisor; Janmaat, Johannus, advisor; Davies, Stephen, committee member; Kroll, Stephan, committee member; Buyere, Brett, committee member
Many reasons have been suggested as explanation for observed differences in citizens' environmental conservation projects policy choices and willingness-to-pay (WTP) values. Some people attribute this distinctive decision behavior to contrasts in the overall policy outcome expectations (preference heterogeneity) and/or differences in reactions to the changes in the environmental attributes (response heterogeneity). Others attribute this to differences in individual choice rationales, personalities, encounters, and past and present experiences. In other words, regardless of the possibility that outcomes are the same, people do not have the same emotions, convictions, disposition, or motivations. In three separate essays, I investigate the possible reasons for the observed differences in citizens' environmental conservation policy choices and examine how preference and response heterogeneity arise. In the first essay, I ask if a priori environmental damage perception is a source of heterogeneity affecting conservation option choice decisions. In the second, I investigate if social networks (interactions among decision-making agents) affect choice decisions. In the third, I investigate if preferences change when decision making agents are allowed to deliberate among peers. For the first essay, I conducted an on-line choice experiment (CE) survey. The survey asked questions that help to measure citizen preference for protecting environmental public goods, ascertain the value local residents are willing-to-pay (WTP), and determine how preference heterogeneity arises. CE attributes included groundwater use (measured by share of total water use from groundwater), aquatic habitat (measured by count of spawning kokanee salmon return), natural habitat health (measured by the sensitive ecosystem area reclaimed), and rural character (measured by a decrease in urban sprawl and/or a decrease in population density in rural areas). I used a special property levy as the vehicle of payment. Random parameter logit (RP) and latent class (LC) models were estimated to capture response and preference heterogeneity. The results suggest that (1) both preference and response heterogeneities were found for the choices and all environmental attributes respectively (2) respondents who have a higher value for one environmental good will have a higher value for other environmental goods, and (3) a priori damage perception could be one of the sources of response and preference heterogeneity. In the same survey, I included people's egocentric networks, interactions, environment related activities and perceptions to empirically evaluate whether social network effect (SNE) is a source of systematic differences in preference. I estimate consumer preferences for a hypothetical future environmental conservation management alternative described by its attributes within a Nested Logit Model: nesting broader and distinct conservation options within choices impacted by individual's network structure. The results show that some network centrality measures capture preference heterogeneity, and consequently the differences in WTP values in a systematic way. Third, I compare the value estimated based on the traditional choice experiment (CE) with the results obtained using the citizen jury (CJ) approach or a group-based approach or also called the "Market Stall" in some literature. I estimate the effect of deliberation on conservation choice outcomes by removing any significant differences between the people who participated in the CJ (people who volunteered to be contacted again after deliberation treatment) and those people who did the survey twice but did not volunteer for CJ (control group) in terms of their socioeconomic status and be able attribute the changes in preferences to deliberation treatment only. CJ approach involved two 90 minute deliberations held over two days to discuss and consider their preferences and WTP values with other household members. Results show that deliberation improves individuals' valuation process and there is observed difference in choice outcomes between the deliberation treatment and control groups. Both preference and response heterogeneity relatively vanish when people were allowed to deliberate among peers.
Open Access
Quantifying the economic health cost of exposure to wildfire smoke: four essays in non-market valuation, methodological comparisons, and econometric methods to address endogeneity
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Richardson, Leslie A., author; Loomis, John, advisor; Champ, Patricia, committee member; Seidl, Andy, committee member; Kling, Robert, committee member
Wildfires and their proximity to urban areas have become more frequent, yet few economic studies have looked closely at the welfare implications exposure to wildfire smoke has on affected individuals. Further, there is a growing concern that human health impacts resulting from this exposure are ignored in estimates of the monetized damages from a given wildfire. Current research highlights the need for better data collection and analysis of these impacts. Using unique primary data, this dissertation quantifies the economic health cost of exposure to wildfire smoke using non-market valuation techniques including the contingent valuation and defensive behavior methods. The individual willingness to pay for a reduction in symptom days as well as perceived pollution levels are quantified and compared to a simple cost of illness estimate. Results indicate that many residents surveyed did not seek medical attention for major health effects, but rather suffered from minor health impacts whose cost is not captured in a cost of illness estimate. As a result, expenditures on defensive activities and the disutility associated with symptoms and lost leisure are found to be substantial for the case of wildfire smoke exposure.
Open Access
The influence of climate, amenities and socio-economic factors on population growth in areas around western national forest land
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015) Weiss, David, author; Loomis, John, advisor; Joyce, Linda, committee member; Warziniack, Travis, committee member; Weiler, Stephan, committee member
Understanding factors that do and do not affect population change helps public land managers anticipate future population changes around national forests and informs future land management planning decisions. This study examines the effects of climate, natural and manmade amenities and socio-economic factors on population growth in rural counties in the West that contain national forest land. Further, it employs a series of forecasting models to estimate population change through 2060 under multiple climate change scenarios and a baseline climate scenario, with particular focus on the five Wyoming counties that contain the Shoshone National Forest. Cross-sectional analysis of population growth from 2000 to 2010 indicates that a wide range of variables are significant in predicting population change. Within the class of climate variables, average low winter temperature exhibits a highly significant negative correlation with population change (i.e. as winter temperatures rise, population growth slows). Average high summer temperature also has a significant negative correlation with population growth, though only when analyzed independently of average low winter temperature. Estimated population growth rates through 2060 tended to be higher among sampled counties with larger base populations. For the most part, forecasting models predicted increases in population for the five Shoshone counties. Among these counties, projected percent change in population from 2010 to 2060 varied considerably less across models for the three counties with relatively larger base populations. Across forecasting models, aggregated predicted population increases for the Shoshone region varied from 65.4% to 154.2%. A relatively small portion of this anticipated population growth was attributable to forecasted increases in summer and winter temperatures, compared to the underlying trend of higher predicted growth rates among counties with higher base year populations.
Open Access
The total economic value of the National Park Service: a contingent valuation method analysis
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Quay, Brian, author; Loomis, John, advisor; Seidl, Andrew, committee member; Kling, Robert, committee member
This thesis estimates the total economic value (TEV) of avoiding up to 40% cuts to the National Park Service (NPS) park lands and NPS programs. TEV is made up of visitor use and nonuse values (existence can bequest values). We use a Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) survey to estimate benefits generated by the NPS, from a nationwide perspective. Thus, in order to estimate the TEV of the NPS, we use the Turnbull estimator and a logit regression to estimate household-level willingness to pay (WTP) from the data collected in the CVM survey. This study, by nature, is a benefit analysis. It uses stated consumer preferences to estimate aggregate WTP. The mail and internet survey had a response rate of 18 percent with a sample size of 317. Depending on model specification we find conservative lower bound annual household WTP estimates for avoiding up to 40% cuts to NPS park lands of $243.39 and $194.20 for avoiding up to 40% cuts to NPS programs (both values were estimated using the Turnbull estimator), and upper bound estimates of $1,015.10 for avoiding up to 40% cuts to NPS park lands and $430.00 to avoid up to 40% cuts to NPS programs (both values were estimated using a logit model). By summing the above statistics, we find estimated annual household WTP for avoiding up to 40% cuts to the NPS ranging from $437.59 to $1,445.10. Applying the lower bound WTP estimate to 18 percent of the households in the United States (as consistent with the survey response rate, in order to treat nonresponses as 'no' votes), we conservatively estimate the annual TEV of avoiding up to 40% cuts to the NPS to be $9 billion. Using the upper bound household WTP estimate and applying it to the all households equates to an annual TEV of avoiding up to 40% cuts to the NPS to be $167 billion.
Open Access
Valuing economic benefits of water's ecosystem services with non-market valuation methods and regional input-output model
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Ng, Kawa, author; Loomis, John, advisor; Goldstein, Joshua, committee member; Graff, Gregory, committee member; Seidl, Andrew, committee member
Colorado has the highest trout angler participation rate in the United States, but the economic benefits of the state's anglers were last estimated more than two decades ago. Using survey data sampled in Colorado's stocked public reservoirs in 2009, Chapter one showed that trout anglers' net economic benefits were more than twice as much as non-trout anglers'. Values estimated from Travel Cost Method produced angler day consumer surpluses of US$191.60 and $61.68 for trout and non-trout anglers respectively. Values from Contingent Valuation Method are $196.48 (trout) and $73.84 (non-trout) for the mean consumer surplus, while the median are $164.53 (trout) and $56.78 (non-trout). Thus the relative values of fishing for trout versus other species are robust to non-market valuation methods, and the two valuation methods show convergent validity. Chapter two investigates the change in angler trips as a response to current season stocking level, in order to calculate the net economic benefit per fish stocked for selected hatcheries-stocked reservoirs in Colorado. Besides the unique objective to derive a marginal fish value for stocked trout in Colorado's reservoirs, this study also differs from existing studies in that it does not arbitrarily assume the proportion of stocked fish caught by anglers. As an alternative, this study utilized the relationships among catchable trout stocking level, angler catch rate, annual trips and valuation estimates to derive economic values of stocked fish: $0.38 for trout and $1.88 for non-trout. National forests contribute a substantial portion of water to the public supply in western states. In particular, units in the national forest system in Colorado are estimated to provide 68% of the water supply originating in Colorado in an average year. Chapter three used a customized value-added approach along with a state-wide input-output model to derive the marginal economic contributions to each economic sector in the state of Colorado. The approach used in this chapter differed from the traditionally applied method, in that it avoided over-estimating the value of water from implicitly assigning zero opportunity cost to all non-water inputs. Instead, the gross absorption coefficients for the water supply sector were used for adjusting the economic impacts. A method of calculating the economic contributions attributable Colorado's national forest water to each sector in the state economy was demonstrated. On an average year, summing across all sectors, water originating from Colorado's national forests contributed to a total of 4,738 jobs, $215,473,985 in labor income, and $264,485,290 in value-added for Colorado's economy.

Browsing by Author "Loomis, John, advisor"

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