Browsing by Author "Hoag, Dana, advisor"

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Open Access
An alternative water resource project for the state of Colorado: the Million - Green River Basin Water project: a comparative economics study and cost-benefit analysis of the Colorado River and Green River basins
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015) Million, Aaron P., author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Loomis, John, committee member; Frasier, Marshall, committee member; Grigg, Neil, committee member
Water supplies are a limiting factor in the Western United States. Policy, social welfare, and economic interests all reflect the demands placed on this scarce resource. Projects to develop water are complex and reflect both historical and current institutional, environmental, and financial constraints. This study proposes a project from the Green River Basin for use in the State of Colorado. Water managers called this study the first new idea in water resources in 50 years. The cost-benefit analysis identifies limits, constraints and opportunities from the Green River Basin compared to the Colorado River basin. Economic welfare issues reflect water's expanding use and legal constraints. Not a public good exclusively and not a private right exclusively, the procurement of water, water rights, and development history is influenced by water's legal standing, public policy, and economic benefits. In the western United States, the Colorado River Compact influences the division and equitable use of waters in the Colorado River Basin System. Significant infrastructure is part of the landscape influenced by the Compact and the need to allocate water in a constrained system. Recent public project proposals failed to identify a potential water supply from the Green River. Environmental benefits, comparative costs, and financial opportunities may allow a new paradigm in the development of a major water project by the private sector. The historic return to private development of water projects reflects current policy changes and markets. The private sector may have significant advantages over public development and meet or exceed public welfare goals related to conservation, environmental benefits, protection of irrigated farmland, and supply procurement.
Open Access
Determinants of investment: sexed semen in dairy cattle
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2010) McCullock, Katelyn, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Seidel, George, committee member; Wailes, William, committee member; Parsons, Jay, committee member
The process of sexing semen through flow cytometry has achieved results in several species, including humans. Potentially, the dairy industry has the ability to earn large gains from sexed semen because of the need for all female herds. This research examined key components in the areas of technology, management, and market environment that affect the adoption of sexed semen on a commercial dairy farm. A spreadsheet was built to simulate the interactions among these areas of interest and regression was used to map and simplify the results. Three scenarios were compared on a case farm using sexed semen. Results identify Dairy heifer calf price had the most impact on profitability of this technology. Conception rate and technology variables affecting conception rate also had significant impacts on return on investment.
Open Access
Economic and environmental trade-offs of irrigation best management practices in the Lower Arkansas River Valley
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Orlando, Anthony, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Goemans, Christopher, committee member; Gates, Timothy K., committee member
The flows of the Arkansas River cascade through the Rocky Mountains and spill into Colorado's eastern plains. In the Lower Arkansas River Valley (LARV), these flows serve irrigators on over 250,000 acres, and are critical to the production of everything from corn to cantaloupes. Concurrent to the "goods" produced with this irrigation, are a series of "bads" occurring in the form of pollution. Elevated selenium, nitrate, and salinity concentrations have been related to high volumes of irrigation return flows, and threaten compliance with the Arkansas River Compact. Implementing a series of regional land and water Best Management Practices (BMPs) is thought to reduce the negative impacts ("bads") of irrigated agriculture in the region and in some cases, increase the productivity of land and water ("goods"). A deeper understanding of impacts of proposed BMPs is required. The specific question I hope to answer with this thesis is "What are the economic and environmental trade-offs face by Lower Arkansas River Valley producers when implementing a series a land and water best management practices?" To answer this question, an economic linear programming (LP) model is written to maximize regional net returns for a representative area within the LARV, using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The LP is calibrated to match the physical characteristics of the region, historic water application volumes, and the historic crop mix. BMPs are tested by constraining various equations in the model, resulting in a series of economic measures. These economic measures are then compared to the output of a water flow, and reactive solute transport model to quantify the trade-offs that exist between regional net returns, in-stream selenium concentrations, in-stream nitrate concentrations, and yield losses to soil salinity. The results of this analysis suggest the existence of win-win scenarios, which increase net returns, and reduce pollution concentrations. No single BMP outperforms all others, supporting the notion that LARV producers and water policy makers face trade-offs in their efforts to control irrigation-induced pollution.
Open Access
Global impacts of U.S. bioenergy production and policy: a general equilibrium perspective
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Evans, Samuel Garner, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Bond, Craig, committee member; Davies, Stephen, committee member; Paustian, Keith, committee member
The conversion of biomass to energy represents a promising pathway forward in efforts to reduce fossil fuel use in the transportation and electricity sectors. In addition to potential benefits, such as greenhouse gas reductions and increased energy security, bioenergy production also presents a unique set of challenges. These challenges include tradeoffs between food and fuel production, distortions in energy markets, and terrestrial emissions associated with changing land-use patterns. Each of these challenges arises from market-mediated responses to bioenergy production, and are therefore largely economic in nature. This dissertation directly addresses these opportunities and challenges by evaluating the economic impacts of U.S. bioenergy production and policy, focusing on both existing and future biomass-to-energy pathways. The analysis approaches the issue from a global, economy-wide perspective, reflecting two important facts. First, that large-scale bioenergy production connects multiple sectors of the economy due to the use of agricultural land resources for biomass production, and competition with fossil fuels in energy markets. Second, markets for both agricultural and energy commodities are highly integrated globally, causing domestic policies to have international effects. The reader can think of this work as being comprised of three parts. Part I provides context through an extensive review of the literature on the market-mediated effects of conventional biofuel production (Chapter 2) and develops a general equilibrium modeling framework for assessing the extent to which these phenomenon present a challenge for future bioenergy pathways (Chapter 3). Part II (Chapter 4) explores the economic impacts of the lignocellulosic biofuel production targets set in the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard on global agricultural and energy commodity markets. Part III (Chapter 5) extends the analysis to consider potential inefficiencies associated with policy-induced competition for biomass between the electricity and transportation fuel sectors.
Open Access
Informed decision-making on photovoltaic adoption for western Colorado peach orchards
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2024) Bryan, Samantha, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Mooney, Daniel, advisor; Tonnessen, Brad, committee member
The Solar Orchard Analysis and Recommendation Tool (SOAR) is an interactive decision-support tool curated for Western Colorado's peach growers to characterize photovoltaic adoption on their farms. Peach orchards use a substantial amount of energy that has the potential to be offset by photovoltaic arrays, allowing the farmer to reduce their operational costs as well as contribute to renewable energy initiatives. In addition, the benefits of solar energy can be enhanced as producers electrify their equipment where appropriate. Each farmer has their own unique energy supply and demand needs that can change over time as tools and vehicles become electrified and as photovoltaic technology evolves. In response, SOAR was created with engineers and local orchard growers to help farmers manage their energy needs. Furthermore, this tool allows farmers to evaluate the effects of different financing options on payback period, return on investment and initial investment cost of a PV array. The use of this decision support tool is exemplified with the use of a case study farm to demonstrate various supply and demand scenarios.
Open Access
Modeling the profitability of Camelina Sativa as a biofuel feedstock in eastern Colorado
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Brandess, Andrew, author; Keske, Catherine, advisor; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Davies, Stephen, committee member; Johnson, Jerry, committee member
This study evaluates the economic feasibility of growing Camelina Sativa as a biofuel feedstock on farms in northeastern Colorado. Camelina Sativa is an oilseed feedstock that can be used to generate straight vegetable oil that has the potential to displace a large percentage of the diesel fuel used by farmers. Offsetting significant portions of diesel fuel allows for a hedge against disruptions in the supply of diesel fuel, as well as unexpected diesel fuel price hikes. This helps ensure the continuation of the food system. The specific intention of this study is to evaluate the likelihood of economic profitability for a farmer who chooses to integrate camelina in the preexisting crop rotation cycle common in northeastern Colorado. This economic evaluation is measured against various per gallon diesel fuel price levels. The crop rotation cycle includes a corn planting, a fallow period, and a wheat planting. Camelina is grown exclusively during the fallow portion of the rotation and will not be grown at a time when commodity crops would otherwise be grown.
Open Access
The impact of armed conflict on agricultural production the case of Libya: 1970-2017
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2022) Bdawi, Elbahlul, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Graff, Gregory, committee member; Kling, Robert, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
I examine the long-term impacts of a recent civil war on the agricultural sector within Libya. Due to the associated destruction and market disruption, armed conflict affects the agricultural sector in complex ways including reducing future growth potential by eroding physical and environmental capital. Libya, with its arid climate, low soil fertility and low agricultural productivity, represents an underdeveloped sector that minimizes the inherent complexity to investigate this impact. However, governmental interest in the agricultural sector has been inconsistent as the dominant oil revenue compensates for agricultural deficits through large subsidies. This absence of attention and oversight has resulted in a lack of quality agricultural data, making it difficult to develop beneficial policies to improve sector growth. Based on its simplicity and ease of interpretation, a Cobb-Douglas style production function with Solow-Swan modification is used to characterize the agricultural sector. Though limited, data was collected from FAO and ILO on land, irrigation, fertilizer, machinery, and labor in Libya spanning from 1970 to 2017 covering periods of stability and conflict in order to estimate agricultural sector growth compared to the status quo. To account for the long-term impacts of conflict on growth, inputs are divided into environmental capital, physical capital, and labor. Next, elasticity parameters are estimated through an OLS regression of the Cobb-Douglas production function before and after conflict. A Chow/QLR test is used to confirm the existence and timing of the structural break in the production function arising at the onset of the 2011 conflict. Finally, the impact of post-conflict growth rates are compared using the pre-conflict and conflict regression parameters. Changes in the estimated parameters from the start of the conflict were significant at the 5% level for both the labor and physical inputs, while the environmental elasticity parameter change was not significant. The conflict elasticity estimates were -0.518, -0.803, and -18.9 for the Physical, Environmental and Labor inputs, compared to their pre-con ict values of 0.107, 0.146, and 1.315, respectively. The two key questions are whether the growth path can recover to pre-conflict levels and the associated production losses resulting over the period the sector takes to return to those pre-conflict rates. A preliminary cost-analysis was applied to estimate the required investment to generate an increase in agricultural GDP. The most cost-efficient way to increase the production after conflict (under the assumption of a return to pre-conflict elasticities) is to increase the quantity/quality of fertilizer used. Increasing machinery is the least efficient way to grow the sector GDP. This may reflect two realities in Libya: weak soil quality and inefficient use of machinery, due to diseconomies of size with smaller plots. Lessons from conflicts in other post-conflict countries suggest that a necessary but insufficient condition is the application of good agricultural policies to rebuild the sector. New policies could improve agricultural returns to surpass losses due to conflict if post-conflict productivity is improved. These policies must be combined with good management and reliable data to effect positive changes within the sector. In Libya's case, the primary post-conflict policies should include improving data collection and focusing on increased education and training to enhance the agricultural sector's rehabilitation. I estimated 3 specific scenarios of the post-conflict future consisting of business-as-usual (BAU), a scenario with convergence between the pre-conflict and post-conflict growth paths within 50 years, and another with a convergence of 20 years. Based on the experiences of other post-conflict countries, Libya's agricultural production will likely converge back to the pre-conflict agricultural GDP trajectory within 10-15 years, so long as there is a minimal transition period and agricultural policies are consistent and well managed. The expected cost to the economy is measured by the discounted difference between the pre-conflict trajectory GDP and the estimated post-conflict GDP until the convergence point. For the likely 20 year convergence, there is an estimated opportunity cost of USD2010 25.0 billion. Should the sector return to business-as-usual, the present discounted value of the conflict is USD2010 49.0 billion. The impact of the conflict is lessened by poor productivity before the conflict. It appears that the conflict slowed business-as-usual, but did not significantly erode environmental capital, which would further cripple the recovery.
Open Access
Three essays on institutional design for voluntary water conservation
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Sharp, Misti, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Suter, Jordan, committee member; Arabi, Mazdak, committee member
This dissertation is a compilation of three essays on institutional issues inherent in water conservation decision making by agricultural producers. Chapter 1 includes summaries of the three papers I intend to defend and introduces some ideas and concepts visited throughout the dissertation. Chapter 2 presents the results of a multidisciplinary study on managing selenium pollution in the Lower Arkansas River Basin in Southeastern Colorado titled, "Institutional Constraints on Cost-Effective Water Management: Selenium Contamination in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley." The study presents the cost-effectiveness of various management practices to mitigate selenium pollution flows simulated over twenty years using regional scale groundwater and reactive solute transport models. Social institutions, such as rules on water conservation, serve to influence decision making and alter the economic feasibility of conservation efforts. The third chapter, "Uncertainty and Technology Adoption: Lessons from the Arkansas River Valley," extends the property rights institutional concerns introduced in chapter 2 and looks specifically to how use-based property rights influence decision making for conservation irrigation technology. When an irreversible investment is made under uncertainty, there is often a delay in investment that would not be seen under the traditional Marshallian framework for investment. This study advances the literature by exploring how property rights further exacerbate this option value hurdle which serves to further delay investment under uncertain water supplies. An empirical section explores how property rights are being applied in the Arkansas River Basin and discusses the implications for future conservation efforts. Finally, the last chapter, "An Experimental Approach to Resolving Uncertainty in Water Quality Trading Markets," uses experimental economics to explore the impacts of resolving uncertainty in water quality trading market design. This paper looks at whether non-point sources would take an opportunity to resolve environmental uncertainty if there is a water quality trading market in place. Additionally, it explores the interactions between a pollution market and voluntary abatement with and without a voluntary-threat regulation.
Open Access
Valuation of freshwater resources and sustainable management in poverty dominated areas
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2013) Shah, Syed Attaullah, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Loomis, John, committee member; Von Fischer, Joe, committee member; Graff, Gregory, committee member
To view the abstract, please see the full text of the document.
Open Access
Valuing ecosystems and economic services across land-use scenarios in the Prairie Pothole region of the Dakotas
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2010) Gasciogne, William R., author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Koontz, Lynne, committee member; Loomis, John, committee member; Goldstein, Josh, committee member; Koontz, Stephen, committee member
This thesis uses biophysical values derived for the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North and South Dakota, in conjunction with value transfer methods, to assess the environmental and economic tradeoffs under different policy-relevant land use scenarios over a 20-yr. time period. The ecosystem service valuation is carried out by comparing the biophysical and economic values of three focal services ( carbon sequestration, reduction in sedimentation, and waterfowl production) across three focal land uses in the region (i.e. native prairie grasslands, lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve and Wetlands Reserve Programs (CRP/WRP), and cropland). This study finds that CRP/WRP lands cannot mitigate (1 for 1) the loss of native prairie from a social welfare standpoint. Furthermore, land use scenarios in which native prairie loss was minimized and CRP/WRP lands were increased provided the most societal benefit. The scenario modeling projected native prairie conversion results in a social welfare loss valued at over $2.5 billion over the policy period, when considering the study' s three ecosystem services, and a net loss of $1,888,237,567 when reductions in commodity production is accounted for. By quantifying ecosystem and economic tradeoffs of future land use scenarios, this thesis aims to help policy makers and natural resource managers make more knowledgeable, efficient, and defensible decisions.