An operationally relevant framework for mapping spot fire transmission potential

Abstract

Spotting is an important fire spread mechanism and cause of fireline breaches, yet current models provide only coarse metrics of spotting behavior that are underutilized in fire operations. We developed a spatial framework to quantify and map potential sources and sinks of spot fire transmission across control lines, based on models of ember production, ember transport, and receiving fuel bed ignition probability. The framework provides several spatially explicit measures of spotting potential (SP), conditional on fire extent and weather, that are designed to inform control line selection and resource allocation to tasks such as line prep, retardant application, and holding operations. We evaluated the utility of SP using two wildfire case studies with growth episodes attributed to spotting. SP captured the general trends in spotting behavior from these wind-driven fires. In its current form, SP may be useful for relative evaluation of control lines, and to help managers think prescriptively about the control tactics necessary on both the source and receiving sides of control lines to avoid spotting breaches. Future research priorities are refining the component models and empirical calibration of SP to spotting probability.