Integrated assessment of water shortage under climate, land use, and adaptation changes in the contiguous United States
Date
2024
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Abstract
Water scarcity is a critical global challenge. Water managers pursue water supply- and demand-side strategies, including construction or enhancement of water supply systems, conservation, and water reuse, to address water security driven by changes in climate, population, and land use. However, the effects of these strategies to mitigate future water shortages under dynamic climate and socioeconomic conditions at various spatial and temporal scales remain unclear. The overarching goal of this dissertation is to (1) improve understanding of the interconnections and interactions between climate, socioeconomic, hydrological, and institutional factors that influence water shortage at the river basin level, and (2) conduct an integrated assessment of water and land use management strategies. The dissertation is organized into three research studies. The first study explores water shortages in the South Platte River Basin (SPRB) and the potential benefits of investing in storage infrastructure and demand management strategies. The second study develops a methodology to understand the interactions between land use planning, water demands, shortage vulnerability, and effects on associated economic value. The third study expands the integrative assessment framework to assess changes in water demand, supply, and withdrawals, and identify effective mitigation strategies across river basins in the Contiguous United States over a range of climatic and socioeconomic pathways that are forecasted for the coming decades. In the first study, we develop data analysis and modeling tools to project water demands, supply, and shortages in the SPRB by the mid and end of the 21st century, examine the efficacy of adaptation strategies to reduce water shortages, and explore conditions under which reservoir storage and demand management would serve benefits for reduction of the vulnerability of economic sectors to water shortages. We implement two demand modeling tools to simulate the current and future urban and agricultural water demand in the river basin. Water yield is simulated using calibrated and tested Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The estimated water demands and supplies are integrated using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model to simulate water allocation with a half-monthly timestep to 70 aggregate users in the basin. Population growth, climate change, reservoir operations, and institutional agreements were considered during the modeling. The study reveals that the vulnerability to water shortages across sectors would increase without adaptation strategies. Population growth tends to be the primary driver of water shortages in the river basin. Reservoirs in the basin can relieve the sequences of the earlier seasonal shift of the water supply by capturing water during the high flow to be used in the high-demand seasons. However, additional storage is only beneficial up to a threshold of storage capacity to the water supply mean ratio of 0.64. The second study focuses on integrating the effects of land use planning and water rights institutions into the shortage analysis of the SPRB. The goal is to build a framework to understand the complex interactions between climate change, water rights institutions, urban land use planning, and population growth, and how they collectively impact the water shortage and economic analysis. We apply this framework to the SPRB simulate three water institutions, update the urban demand modeling to be a function of the population density, and test different scenarios of population locations throughout the basin. Results show that changing water rights institutions has a small impact on total shortages compared to climate change, but substantially impacts which users experience shortages. Land use policies influencing population locations have larger impacts on shortage and economic value compared to water rights. Finally, distributing the population more evenly between upstream and downstream regions reduces water shortages and increases associated economic value regardless of water rights institutions and climate conditions. The third study employs an integrative modeling assessment framework to assess water shortage and effective mitigation strategies in river basins across the Contiguous United States. The goals are to improve the methodologies for estimation of water withdrawals, consumptive use, and water shortage, and explore the effectiveness of supply- and demand-side adaptation strategies. The simulated demands are integrated with the water supply components (groundwater, interbasin transfers, water yield, and reservoirs) into a water allocation model for simulating shortage under different scenarios. Results reveal that irrigation has the highest historical and future consumptive use, over 75% of the total consumptive use. Although the consumptive use ratio receives little attention in the literature, it appears to be the most significant parameter for shortage calculations. The allocation model provides comprehensive shortage analysis considering shortage volume, ratio, and frequency across multiple scenarios for the 204 sub-regions –Hydrologic Unit Code 4 watersheds– of the Contiguous United States. Water shortages concentrate between the boundaries of the West Region with both the Midwest and the South regions, in addition to Arizona, Florida, and the center valley of California. Relying only on sustainable groundwater pumping rates is essential to stop the ongoing groundwater depletion, but adds more pressure on demand reduction strategies. The ongoing research examining water demand, supply, and shortage is important and requires further integration of the key influencing variables. This dissertation demonstrates the necessity of an integrated approach to fully understand the relative impacts of the main drivers of water allocation and shortage. We highlight that reservoirs play a vital role in balancing seasonal fluctuations in the water supply. However, their effect on the 30-year mean annual shortage is effective until the storage volume ratio to mean water supply exceeds 64%. Additionally, land use policies carry higher direct significance on water shortages compared to water rights. We find that distributing the population more evenly throughout the river basin provides the lowest shortage. Lastly, the approaches targeting shortage calculation and mitigation should analyze both regional and national scenarios under integrated frameworks comparing demand- and supply-side options.
Description
Rights Access
Embargo expires: 05/20/2025.
Subject
demand management
water rights
WEAP
water allocation modeling
climate change
water shortage