Dataset associated with "Skillful all-season S2S prediction of U.S. precipitation using the MJO and QBO"

Nardi, Kyle M.; Baggett, Cory F.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Maloney, Eric D.; Harnos, Daniel S.; Ciasto, Laura M.

Dataset associated with "Skillful all-season S2S prediction of U.S. precipitation using the MJO and QBO"

dc.contributor.author	Nardi, Kyle M.
dc.contributor.author	Baggett, Cory F.
dc.contributor.author	Barnes, Elizabeth A.
dc.contributor.author	Maloney, Eric D.
dc.contributor.author	Harnos, Daniel S.
dc.contributor.author	Ciasto, Laura M.
dc.coverage.spatial	Contiguous United States	en_US
dc.coverage.spatial	Alaska	en_US
dc.coverage.spatial	Pacific Ocean	en_US
dc.coverage.temporal	1979-2017	en_US
dc.date.accessioned	2019-07-12T16:33:22Z
dc.date.available	2019-07-12T16:33:22Z
dc.date.issued	2019
dc.description	This repository contains files depicting the model’s skill in each region and season for different combinations of MJO phase, QBO phase, and forecast lead time. The files also show which phase and lead combinations are "skillful forecasts of opportunity", situations in which the model is significantly more skillful than a random forecast. Together, the contents of this repository allow users to better assess the utility of the empirical model in particular regions and seasons of interest. Please refer to the README file for additional details.	en_US
dc.description	Department of Atmospheric Science
dc.description.abstract	Although useful at short and medium-ranges, current dynamical models provide little additional skill for precipitation forecasts beyond Week 2 (14 days). However, recent studies have demonstrated that downstream forcing by the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) influences subseasonal variability, and predictability, of sensible weather across North America. Building on prior studies evaluating the influence of the MJO and QBO on the subseasonal prediction of North American weather, we apply an empirical model that uses the MJO and QBO as predictors to forecast anomalous (i.e., categorical above or below-normal) pentadal precipitation at Weeks 3 through 6 (15-42 days). A novel aspect of our study is the application and evaluation of the model for subseasonal prediction of precipitation across the entire contiguous U.S. and Alaska during all seasons. In almost all regions and seasons, the model provides "skillful forecasts of opportunity" for 20-50% of all forecasts valid Weeks 3 through 6. We also find that this model skill is correlated with historical responses of precipitation, and related synoptic quantities, to the MJO and QBO. Finally, we show that the inclusion of the QBO as a predictor increases the frequency of skillful forecasts of opportunity over most of the contiguous U.S. and Alaska during all seasons. These findings will provide guidance to forecasters regarding the utility of the MJO and QBO for subseasonal precipitation outlooks.	en_US
dc.description.sponsorship	Collection of the data in this repository is supported by NOAA Climate Test Bed grant NA18OAR4310296 and NSF Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics grant AGS-1841754.	en_US
dc.format.medium	ZIP
dc.format.medium	PDF
dc.format.medium	NetCDF
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10217/195747
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.25675/10217/195747
dc.language	English
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	Colorado State University. Libraries	en_US
dc.relation.ispartof	Research Data
dc.relation.isreferencedby	Nardi, K., C. Baggett, E. Barnes, E. Maloney, D. Harnos, and L. Ciasto, 2020: Skillful all-season S2S prediction of U.S. precipitation using the MJO and QBO, Wea. Forecasting, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0232.1	en_US
dc.relation.isreferencedby	Mundhenk, B., E. A. Barnes, E. Maloney and C. F. Baggett, 2018: Skillful empirical subseasonal prediction of landfalling atmospheric river activity using the Madden-Julian oscillation and the quasi-biennial oscillation. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0008-2	en_US
dc.relation.isreferencedby	Johnson, N. C., D. C. Collins, S. B. Feldstein, M. L. L'Heureux, and E. E. Riddle, 2014: Skillful Wintertime North American Temperature Forecasts out to 4 Weeks Based on the State of ENSO and the MJO. Weather Forecast., 29, 23–38, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-13-00102.1	en_US
dc.rights.license	The material is open access and distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject	Weather	en_US
dc.subject	Prediction	en_US
dc.subject	Precipitation	en_US
dc.subject	Climate	en_US
dc.subject	Teleconnections	en_US
dc.title	Dataset associated with "Skillful all-season S2S prediction of U.S. precipitation using the MJO and QBO"	en_US
dc.type	Dataset	en_US