Projecting end-of-century human exposure to eastern Colorado tornadoes and hailstorms: meteorological and societal perspectives
Date
2020
Authors
Childs, Samuel J., author
Schumacher, Russ, advisor
Demuth, Julie, committee member
Ojima, Dennis, committee member
Rasmussen, Kristen, committee member
Rutledge, Steven, committee member
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Abstract
The eastern half of Colorado is one of the most active areas for hailstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. An average of 39 tornadoes and 387 severe hail reports are tallied each year over this domain, and a number of damaging events, particularly hailstorms, have occurred in recent years. In an era of climate change, it is of worth to project how the frequency, geography, and severity of tornadoes and hailstorms may change over time, and doing so on a localized scale can shed light on the small-scale complexities that broader analyses miss. It is important to consider both meteorological and non-meteorological effects when projecting the changing human risk and exposure to these hazards in the future, as human factors such as population growth means that more people may potentially be exposed to tornadoes and hailstorms regardless of how climate change may influence storm characteristics. As such, this doctoral study employs a multidisciplinary, multi-perspective approach to investigate how the tornado and severe hail footprint may change across eastern Colorado by the end of the 21st century, and in turn how the impacts on those who live and work in this area may be exacerbated. A baseline climatology of tornadoes and hailstorms across eastern Colorado is established using Storm Prediction Center data records. Both hazards show increasing frequency since the 1950s, but when the temporal range is limited to 1997–2017, tornado reports and days show decreasing trends while severe hail reports and days continue to show upward trends. Population bias is inherent in the data records of both hazards and manifests itself as a clustering of reports near urban centers and along major roadways where people live and travel. However, the increasing number of severe hail days and proportion of hail reported at larger sizes is less likely to be influenced by population growth and thus may have a meteorological origin. Convective parameters output from high-resolution dynamical downscaling simulations of control and future climate scenarios using the Weather and Forecasting model are used as proxies to create and compare synthetic tornado and hail reports between the two simulations. Up to three more severe hail days and one more tornado day per year on average by the period 2071–2100 is found, maximized in the north-central part of the domain. This result is combined with population projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in Tornado and Hail Monte Carlo models to simulate changes in the number of people living underneath tornado tracks and hail swaths by the year 2100. Human exposure evolution is sensitive to the overlap of population and hazard spatial footprints, but the model predicts worst-case scenarios of a 178% increase in exposure to severe hail and a 173% increase in exposure to tornadoes by the end of the 21st century. In addition, population effects outweigh meteorological effects when simulated independently. Some simulations yield a decreasing human exposure to severe hail due to the greatest projected increases in hailstorms over rural, agricultural land. This finding provides motivation for an interview study of eastern Colorado farmers and ranchers to measure perceptions of exposure and sensitivity to severe hail. Most interviewees view hailstorms as a common nuisance throughout eastern Colorado and are most concerned with small hail that falls in large volumes or is driven by a strong wind since these scenarios cause the most damage to crops. Respondents express anxiety and dejection toward hailstorms, as they can significantly affect crop yields and in turn impact their livelihoods and local economy. Understanding this agricultural perspective validates ongoing research into hail surface characteristics and can promote stronger partnerships between the forecasting and farming communities. The synthesis of results from this dissertation, with its unique localized look at the human and meteorological factors contributing to a changing exposure, can be of great worth to forecasters, urban planners, emergency managers, insurance agents, and other local decision-makers. Moreover, this work will help to educate the local public about the past, present, and future of tornadoes and severe hailstorms within eastern Colorado, with the aim of protecting lives and property from their negative impacts.
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Subject
climate change
hailstorms
tornadoes
Colorado
agriculture
risk