The diffusion of risk management assistance for wildland fire management in the United States

Abstract

The wildland fire management system is increasingly complex and uncertain, which challenges suppression actions and increases stress on an already strained system. Researchers and managers have called for the use of strategic, risk-informed decision making and decision support tools (DSTs) in wildfire management to manage complexity and mitigate uncertainty. This paper evaluated the use of an emerging wildfire DST, the Risk Management Assistance (RMA) dashboard, during the 2021 and 2022 wildfire seasons. We used a mixed-method approach, consisting of an online survey and in-depth interviews with fire managers. Our objectives were the following: (1) to determine what factors at multiple scales facilitated and frustrated the adoption of RMA; and (2) to identify actionable recommendations to facilitate uptake of RMA. We situate our findings within the diffusion of innovations literature and use-inspired research. Most respondents indicated RMA tools were easy to use, accurate, and relevant to decision-making processes. We found evidence that the tools were used throughout the fire management cycle. Previous experience with RMA and training in risk management, trust in models, leadership support, and perceptions of current and future fire risk affected RMA adoption. Recommendations to improve RMA included articulating how the tools integrate with existing wildland fire DSTs, new tools that consider dynamic forecasting of risk, and both formal and informal learning opportunities in the pre-season, during incidents, and in post-fire reviews. We conclude with research and management considerations to increase the use of RMA and other DSTs in support of safe, effective, and informed wildfire decision making.