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Forecasting Class III milk prices in a volatile market

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dc.contributor.authorMcGuire, Madilynne, author
dc.contributor.authorPendell, Dustin L., advisor
dc.contributor.authorKoontz, Stephen R., committee member
dc.contributor.authorHadrich, Joleen, committee member
dc.contributor.authorWailes, William R., committee member
dc.date.accessioned2007-01-03T08:34:16Z
dc.date.available2007-01-03T08:34:16Z
dc.date.issued2012
dc.description.abstractRepeated experiences of volatility with Class III milk prices have caused many producers, wholesalers, and retailers to avoid risk management decisions involving the Class III milk price; instead market participants realize profits as they occur without managing their financial environment based on their expectations. This research forecasted Class III milk price from August 2012 to July 2014 using data from January 2000 to July 2012. The conclusions of this study found that the unrestricted vector autoregressive model is the best forecast both for ex-post and out-of-sample methods. Additionally, it was determined that the futures prices are not strong reflections of feed costs, although one to four months prior to expiration the futures contract price reflects the current feed costs to some degree. Also six to eight months prior to contract expiration there is little movement in the contract price, and the previous month's price has a large influence on the current month's price during this time. It can be concluded that the futures contract price is largely driven by current market conditions during the remainder of the time prior to contract expiration.
dc.format.mediumborn digital
dc.format.mediummasters theses
dc.identifierMcGuire_colostate_0053N_11490.pdf
dc.identifierETDF2012400434AGRE
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10217/74424
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherColorado State University. Libraries
dc.relation.ispartof2000-2019
dc.rightsCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.
dc.subjectcheese
dc.subjectprice forecast
dc.subjectdairy
dc.subjectClass III milk
dc.titleForecasting Class III milk prices in a volatile market
dc.typeText
dcterms.rights.dplaThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights (https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/). You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).
thesis.degree.disciplineAgricultural and Resource Economics
thesis.degree.grantorColorado State University
thesis.degree.levelMasters
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science (M.S.)

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