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Hard choices in agriculture under climate uncertainty: risk & decision analysis applied to climate adaptation

dc.contributor.authorTravis, William R., speaker
dc.contributor.authorMorisette, Jeffrey, moderator
dc.contributor.authorInternational Wildlife Ranching Symposium, producer
dc.descriptionModerator: Jeffrey Morisette.
dc.descriptionPresented at the 8th international congress for wildlife and livelihoods on private and communal lands: livestock, tourism, and spirit, that was held on September 7-12, 2014 in Estes Park, Colorado.
dc.description.abstractLand managers make decisions under great uncertainty, subject to climate variability, extreme events, and underlying climate change. Two cases are briefly described: A northern Great Plains wheat farmer expects value in switching from spring wheat to winter wheat because it pays more and offers better game bird habitat, but the switch depends on reduced chances of winter kill as the climate slowly warms. When does it pay to make the switch? Second, a rancher has to decide during the first year of drought whether to cull the herd or hold on, hoping that next year is better, a decision that involves contingent market conditions, feed prices, and effects on forage quality for the cattle and wildlife. The farmer faces a classic expected utility problem, with the added challenge that average conditions are not a good guide to the cost/loss prospects. The rangeland drought is a game theory problem because the rancher must consider not just the probability of drought next year, but also the actions of other ranchers this year, which affect both prices now and the potential costs of feed in the future. What information and decision support tools would help these land managers make choices under climate uncertainty?
dc.format.extent14 minutes 53 seconds
dc.format.mediumborn digital
dc.format.mediummotion pictures (visual works)
dc.format.mediumdigital moving image formats
dc.format.mediumPresentation slides
dc.publisherColorado State University. Libraries
dc.relation.ispartofClimate and Energy
dc.relation.ispartof8th international wildlife ranching symposium
dc.rightsCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see
dc.subject.lcshWildlife management -- Congresses
dc.subject.lcshRange management -- Congresses
dc.titleHard choices in agriculture under climate uncertainty: risk & decision analysis applied to climate adaptation
dc.title.alternativeHard decisions in a changing climate


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