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Evaluation of parameter and model uncertainty in simple applications of a 1D sediment transport model

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dc.contributor.authorSabatine, Shaina M., author
dc.contributor.authorNiemann, Jeffrey D., advisor
dc.contributor.authorGreimann, Blair, committee member
dc.contributor.authorHoeting, Jennifer, committee member
dc.date.accessioned2007-01-03T08:22:05Z
dc.date.available2007-01-03T08:22:05Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.description.abstractThis paper aims to quantify parameter and model uncertainty in simulations from a 1D sediment transport model using two methods from Bayesian statistics. The first method, Multi-Variable Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis - Uncertainty Analysis (MSU), is an algorithm that identifies the most likely parameter values and estimates parameter uncertainty for models with multiple outputs. The other method, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), determines a combined prediction based on three sediment transport equations and evaluates the uncertainty associated with the selection of a transport equation. These tools are applied to simulations of three flume experiments. Results show that MSU's ability to consider correlation between parameters improves its estimate of the uncertainty in the model forecasts. Also, BMA results suggest that a combination of transport equations usually provides a better forecast than an individual equation, and the selection of a single transport equation substantially increases the overall uncertainty in the model forecasts.
dc.format.mediumborn digital
dc.format.mediummasters theses
dc.identifierSabatine_colostate_0053N_10855.pdf
dc.identifierETDF2011400323CVEE
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10217/70825
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherColorado State University. Libraries
dc.relation.ispartof2000-2019
dc.rightsCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.
dc.subjectBayesian model averaging
dc.subjectsediment transport uncertainty
dc.subjectparameter uncertainty
dc.subjectparameter optimization
dc.subjectmodel uncertainty
dc.titleEvaluation of parameter and model uncertainty in simple applications of a 1D sediment transport model
dc.typeText
dcterms.rights.dplaThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights (https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/). You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).
thesis.degree.disciplineCivil and Environmental Engineering
thesis.degree.grantorColorado State University
thesis.degree.levelMasters
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science (M.S.)

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