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Export-led growth and crowding-out effect case study: a cointegration approach


During last three decades, development policies have major shifted from what is known as import-substitution to export-led growth in which many developing countries have focused on reducing their dependence on primary commodity export and increasing their manufactured exports. The important motivation supports for export-led growth policy is the vision of growing market which lead to increase specialization and division of labor. Developing countries can move up to the development ladder by specializing in exporting low-technology products to industrialized countries. In addition, with abundance of cheap and unskilled labor, developing countries will gain from international trade. These gains would allow them to graduate to the rank of middle or higher income countries by exporting more technologically sophisticated, skill-intensive products. While, export-led growth has been increasingly applied around the world, the deterioration in economic still occurred and created a new challenge for export-led growth model. In facts, it faces a fallacy of composition where exporters rely on growth of demand in export markets. Developing countries sell most of their export manufactured to industrialized countries markets. However, export markets demand does not grow fast enough to support the growth of export expansion of all developing country exporters. As a result, trade barriers and macroeconomic policies will be applied. If consider developing countries as a group, the problem of export-led growth can be described as export displacement or crowding-out effect. This means when one country tries to increase its export; it may displace the export shares of another. This study analyzes whether export-led growth exists in Vietnam and the crowding-out effect occurs among ASEAN countries. The approach in this study is the use of cointegration in a multi-equations model which allows us to examine the long-run relationship between exports and economic growth in Vietnam and the connection within ASEAN countries for export manufactured goods. The results lead to policy recommendation for Vietnam's export in particular and ASEAN's export in general to improve their economic growth and export benefits.


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crowding-out effect
export-led growth
cointegration analysis


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