Environmental shifts and strategic rifts: climate change's role in allied relations; the case of the Northwest Passage

Abstract

As Arctic sea ice continues to recede due to accelerating climate change, the Northwest Passage (NWP)—a historically ice-bound maritime route—has become increasingly navigable and economically valuable. This thesis investigates whether climate change is influencing the longstanding dispute between Canada and the United States over the legal status of the NWP. While Canada asserts that the route lies within its internal waters, the U.S. views it as an international strait, open to global navigation. This research employs a qualitative single-case study to examine how increasing navigability is shaping political relevance, policy framing, and interstate discourse over the region. Drawing on sea ice data, historical policy documents, and discourse analysis of public statements by Canadian Prime Ministers, U.S. Presidents, and Chinese officials since 1988, the study traces how national narratives and securitization strategies have evolved. The thesis considers the implications of rising outside interest - namely Chinese - in the Arctic and how this external pressure affects bilateral relations and domestic responses. It concludes by evaluating potential outcomes of the dispute and analyzing how Arctic Indigenous populations are increasingly marginalized in a securitized policy landscape. The findings contribute to understanding how environmental change acts as a catalyst in transforming geopolitical relationships and reshaping traditional alliances.