A multi-dimensional framework for resilience planning in coastal communities vulnerable to a changing climate

Abstract

The increasing frequency and severity of climate-related hazards have intensified infrastructure damage, economic loss, and social disruption, especially in densely populated coastal regions. These challenges are exacerbated by urbanization, land use changes, and accelerating climate change. Sea-level rise (SLR), combined with hurricanes and storm surge, poses an increasing threat to the southeastern and Gulf Coast regions of the U.S., where critical industrial infrastructure is concentrated. Addressing this threat requires integrated, resilience-informed approaches that account for interdependencies between physical systems and socioeconomic institutions. This dissertation introduces a multidisciplinary framework to assess and develop strategies for enhancing the resilience of coastal communities facing escalating threats from SLR and hurricane-induced surge. The framework integrates multi-hazard modeling with analyses of infrastructure vulnerability, economic disruption, accessibility to critical services, and long-term adaptation. A key focus is on housing and employment systems. A novel method projects future employee housing locations by incorporating urbanization, employment trends, and proximity to workplaces. Results show that by 2100, up to 18% of current and 34% of projected employees may face housing-related disruptions, particularly in sectors such as healthcare, construction, and food services, and among vulnerable populations. The study also quantifies vulnerabilities in interconnected systems like power networks and access to schools, hospitals, and emergency services using graph-based and depth-first search algorithms. To support adaptation, a resilience-informed life cycle analysis (LCA) framework using agent-based modeling (ABM) enables dynamic prioritization of shoreline protection zones. Both engineered and green protection strategies for coastal protection are considered. A hybrid strategy combining seawalls and mangroves is proposed to balance cost, performance, and environmental impact. The findings from this study offer actionable guidance for adaptive, equitable planning.