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Skillful long-range forecasts of North American heat waves from Pacific storm propagation

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dc.contributor.authorJenney, Andrea, author
dc.contributor.authorRandall, David, advisor
dc.contributor.authorBarnes, Elizabeth, committee member
dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Georgiana Brooke, committee member
dc.date.accessioned2017-09-14T16:05:33Z
dc.date.available2017-09-14T16:05:33Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.abstractExtreme heat poses major threats to public health and the economy. Long- range predictions of heat waves offer little improvement over climatology despite the continuing improvements of weather forecast models. Previous studies have hinted at possible relationships between tropical West Pacific convection and subsequent anomalous near-surface air temperature and rainfall over the North American Plains. We show that the later stages of propagation of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) can be used to skillfully hindcast a number of Great Plains heat waves between 1948 and 2016 with a three-month lead time. Possible teleconnection mechanisms are investigated, with the most likely being related to a BSISO-induced reduction in Plains spring rainfall and subsequent land-atmosphere feedbacks. Our results are the first to demonstrate that a West Pacific weather event can be used to skillfully forecast US Plains heat waves with a lead time of three months.
dc.format.mediumborn digital
dc.format.mediummasters theses
dc.identifierJenney_colostate_0053N_14340.pdf
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10217/183972
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherColorado State University. Libraries
dc.relation.ispartof2000-2019
dc.rightsCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.
dc.subjectheat waves
dc.subjectteleconnection
dc.subjecthindcast
dc.subjectBSISO
dc.titleSkillful long-range forecasts of North American heat waves from Pacific storm propagation
dc.typeText
dcterms.rights.dplaThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights (https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/). You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).
thesis.degree.disciplineAtmospheric Science
thesis.degree.grantorColorado State University
thesis.degree.levelMasters
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science (M.S.)

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