Quantifying and modeling visitor use in Yosemite National Park and Rocky Mountain National Park
Date
2009
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Abstract
Three manuscripts are presented in this dissertation. The first entitled "Estimating Visitor Use at Attraction Sites and Trailheads Using Automated Visitor Counters in Yosemite National Park" is a methodological paper that examines the use of automated visitor counters, a commonly used device to estimate visitor use in parks and protected areas. This study was conducted in Yosemite National Park in the summer of 2007 and used automated visitor counters to estimate visitor use at several locations in Yosemite Valley. One hundred thirty five hours of direct observations were conducted among six study sites to estimate monitor counting errors. Methods to treat missing monitor data and methods to estimate accurate visitor use counts from automated monitors are discussed. Results show a very strong relationship between observed visitor counts and automated monitor counts (R2 > 0.95) and visitor use estimates are presented for all study sites. This study shows that automated visitor use monitors produce consistent data from which reliable estimates of visitor use can be calculated.
The second paper entitled "Modeling Visitor Use at Recreation Sites from Vehicle Traffic Entrance Counts in Yosemite National Park" describes a statistical model to predict visitor use at attraction sites and trailheads in Yosemite National Park. Negative binomial regression was used to model visitor use at Yosemite Falls as a function of inbound vehicle traffic counts from park entrance stations. Results show a strong statistical relationship between visitor use at the study site and inbound vehicle counts (R2 = 0.85). Used in conjunction with previous crowding studies, the methods in this paper provide Yosemite National Park managers with new options to proactively manage high-use attraction sites.
The final paper entitled "Estimating Visitors' Travel Mode Choices along Bear Lake Road in Rocky Mountain National Park" examines the trade-offs park visitors consider when choosing among transportation options in Rocky Mountain National Park. A stated choice survey was administered at the Bear Lake trailhead in Rocky Mountain National Park during the summer of 2008. An aggregate model that considered all visitors responses equally and segmented models based on visitor demographics were estimated. Results indicate that a model based on three age groups (< 40 years, 40 - 59 years, and 60+ years) produced the best model fit. Crowding along the trail at Bear Lake was found to be the most influential factor related to visitors' choice of transportation mode. Moreover, visitors less than 40 years old were more sensitive to crowding along the trail than older visitors. These results suggest that younger visitors consider transportation to a trailhead as a means to access an activity (e.g. hiking) while older visitors may consider auto-touring an activity in itself.
The second paper entitled "Modeling Visitor Use at Recreation Sites from Vehicle Traffic Entrance Counts in Yosemite National Park" describes a statistical model to predict visitor use at attraction sites and trailheads in Yosemite National Park. Negative binomial regression was used to model visitor use at Yosemite Falls as a function of inbound vehicle traffic counts from park entrance stations. Results show a strong statistical relationship between visitor use at the study site and inbound vehicle counts (R2 = 0.85). Used in conjunction with previous crowding studies, the methods in this paper provide Yosemite National Park managers with new options to proactively manage high-use attraction sites.
The final paper entitled "Estimating Visitors' Travel Mode Choices along Bear Lake Road in Rocky Mountain National Park" examines the trade-offs park visitors consider when choosing among transportation options in Rocky Mountain National Park. A stated choice survey was administered at the Bear Lake trailhead in Rocky Mountain National Park during the summer of 2008. An aggregate model that considered all visitors responses equally and segmented models based on visitor demographics were estimated. Results indicate that a model based on three age groups (< 40 years, 40 - 59 years, and 60+ years) produced the best model fit. Crowding along the trail at Bear Lake was found to be the most influential factor related to visitors' choice of transportation mode. Moreover, visitors less than 40 years old were more sensitive to crowding along the trail than older visitors. These results suggest that younger visitors consider transportation to a trailhead as a means to access an activity (e.g. hiking) while older visitors may consider auto-touring an activity in itself.
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Subject
national parks
rocky mountain national park
stated choice model
statistical modeling
visitor use management
Yosemite National Park
forestry
sociology
transportation planning
transportation