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Economic impact of feral swine transmitting foot-and-mouth disease to livestock in Kansas

Date

2010

Authors

Cozzens, Tyler William, author
Pendell, Dustin L., advisor
Pritchett, James, committee member
Shields, Martin, committee member

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Abstract

In the United States, concern has arisen regarding the potential introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a foreign animal disease, and its subsequent spread by feral swine populations into domestic livestock. Feral swine are ideal candidates to potentially spread FMD, because they are free ranging with sizeable home ranges, frequently contact domestic livestock, have high fecundity and populations are expanding geographically throughout the United States. Feral swine surveillance is becoming a solution to safeguard and mitigate the potential for feral swine to transmit FMD to domestic livestock (e.g., cattle, pigs, and sheep). The potentially devastating economic impacts were evidenced by the economic impact of FMD in the UK and Taiwan (FAO, 2009; Yang et al., 1999). It has been estimated that if FMD were to enter the U.S. the economic losses would be $14 billion (Paarlberg et al., 2002). Such large potential losses are an example of the important economic contribution that livestock production makes to the larger U.S. economy. The objective of this research is to analyze the farm level impacts of alternate surveillance systems in feral swine in the event of a FMD outbreak in Kansas. Specifically, a disease spread model is used to model and evaluate the spread of FMD in Kansas. Output from the disease spread model is incorporated into a partial equilibrium model to determine the changes in prices. The change in prices for grains and livestock are then used to evaluate the farm level impacts in Kansas using whole farm budgets. Results obtained from the disease spread model indicate that under no surveillance the largest amount of animals are destroyed, 2,599,419, with a duration of 193 days. Under twice per month surveillance, 2,555,768 animals are destroyed and the outbreak lasts 189 days. Once per week surveillance shows that 2,585,666 animals are destroyed and the duration lasts 192 days. The NAADSM results for Kansas show that the states livestock industry could potentially face large livestock losses from feral swine transmitting FMD. The impacts to the average farms in Kansas show that producers with a large amount of livestock, in particular swine, see the biggest percentage changes in net income levels. This would be expected as pig and hog prices decrease once the FMD outbreak occurs and return to base levels in quarter four showing that there is a loss in swine prices from a FMD outbreak. Cattle prices initially decrease once the FMD outbreak occurs but then increase above base levels showing that average farms have the potential to regain lost revenues. The whole farm income results indicate that a producer not in the quarantine zone has the potential to capitalize on increasing livestock prices once the trade restrictions are lifted after quarter three.

Description

Department Head: Stephen P. Davies.
2010 Summer.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 63-71).

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