Repository logo

Prototype real-time mesoscale prediction during the 1991-92 winter season and statistical verification of model data

dc.contributor.authorThompson, Gregory, author
dc.descriptionMarch 9, 1993.
dc.descriptionAlso issued as author's thesis (M.S.) -- Colorado State University, 1993.
dc.description.abstractWith the advent of faster, more powerful computers has come an opportunity to perform real-time mesoscale numerical weather prediction. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) developed at CSU has been modified to become a prototype real-time forecast model. Surprisingly, a substantially complex model configuration can attain real­ time forecasts on CSU workstations, as well as a CRAY supercomputer, although more sacrifices must be made on local machines in order to maintain the real-time restrictions. Real-time forecasting began in November 1991 with two main objectives at the time. The first was to predict orographically-forced precipitation in the Colorado region. In this effort the RAMS model was run throughout the winter season of 1991-92 and continues again for the winter season of 1992-93. Through investigation of a case study day (9 March 1992) in which a major winter storm produced blizzard conditions along the Colorado Front Range, the true potential of RAMS real-time forecasting is demonstrated. The second goal was to provide real-time forecasts of cirrus-level clouds to investigators involved in the FIRE II field program in Kansas from 13 Nov. to 6 Dec. 1991. Again a case study day is analyzed in order to assess the possibility that RAMS could improve local mesoscale forecast capabilities. Lastly, a comprehensive statistical analysis of all model data is discussed. The analysis uses multivariate randomized block permutation methods (MRBP) to illustrate model forecast skill for a variety of categories. These categories are comprised of case study model verification and entire season verification for forecasts of lengths 12, 24, 36, 48 hours as well as a brief comparison with established numerical models.
dc.description.sponsorshipSponsored by the Colorado Agricultural Experiment Station under grant COL00692, and the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under grant AFOSR-91-0269.
dc.publisherColorado State University. Libraries
dc.relationCatalog record number (MMS ID): 991023631079703361
dc.relationQC852 .C6 no. 521
dc.relation.ispartofAtmospheric Science Papers (Blue Books)
dc.relation.ispartofAtmospheric science paper, no. 521
dc.rightsCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see
dc.subject.lcshNumerical weather forecasting
dc.subject.lcshReal-time data processing
dc.titlePrototype real-time mesoscale prediction during the 1991-92 winter season and statistical verification of model data
dcterms.rights.dplaThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights ( You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).


Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
15.54 MB
Adobe Portable Document Format