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Examining the response of world wheat prices to climatic and market dynamics




Enghiad, Aliakbar, author
Thilmany, Dawn D., advisor
Leister, Amanda M., committee member
Pena, Anita A., committee member

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World wheat prices have fluctuated in recent years. Many factors affect wheat prices including; climate change, yields, oil prices, lagged prices and imports. In addition to gradually and consistently increasing global wheat demand, these market drivers are posited to impact world market equilibrium prices. To investigate how these factors differentially influence wheat prices, an economic analysis was conducted using a uniquely compiled data set of significant wheat producing areas and linear regression models. Key variables from five major wheat exporter countries/regions were compiled for the 1980 to 2013 time frame. The findings shared here update and support previous studies' conclusions and show that imports, oil price, and the previous years' price have a significant relationship with changes in the world wheat price. It is also found that the precipitation levels in the United States, and more broadly, reported yields in Canada, Former Soviet Union (FSU) and the United States, all have a significant correlation with world wheat prices.


Includes bibliographical references.
2015 Fall.

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climate change
market dynamics
wheat exporter countries
wheat price
wheat world market


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