Future directions of atmospheric dispersion modeling for regulatory use in the United States

Abstract

Computer aided mathematical air pollution models are an important tool in the development of successful air pollution control strategies. Today air pollution models are used to determine the impact of anthropogenic activities, where a proposed source may be built, source emission limits, and source control technology requirements. This paper determines future directions of atmospheric dispersion modeling for regulatory use in the United States. It develops a comprehensive overview of the United States air pollution regulations, reviews the available mathematical modeling theories, presents current model evaluation and validation methods, and examines future advances in air pollution modeling. Future uses of air pollution modeling are dependent upon environmental regulations, current air pollution research, and advances in computer architecture and programming. In the past, air pollution regulations contained only implicit air pollution modeling requirements. The current regulations contain explicit requirements for the use of air pollution modeling as will future regulations due to the high costs of implementing air pollution control strategies. Current research efforts are aimed at improving air pollution modeling dispersion, transport, and removal processes. The development and use of advanced model evaluation methods are important in identifying model weaknesses and areas for model improvements. As model become more complex, greater computer power is required. Therefore, current air pollution research, the development of advanced model evaluation methods, and future advances in computer capabilities are limiting factors in the implementation of advanced computer aided air pollution modeling for regulatory use.