A holistic multidisciplinary decision-making approach utilizing model-based systems engineering and system dynamics for novel energy technology commercialization

Abstract

The U.S. energy system is characterized by its complexity and the intricate interplay of various components, including electricity generation, non-electrical energy sources, energy consumption patterns, and the energy economy. As the nation transitions to more sustainable and resilient energy sources, it becomes evident that traditional decision-making approaches are insufficient to address the multifaceted challenges of modern energy systems. This research aims to develop a novel decision-making framework by integrating systems thinking and systems engineering principles to provide a comprehensive understanding of energy system behavior and facilitate the evaluation and deployment of novel energy technologies. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the research, states the main research question and objectives, and describes an overview of the dissertation. Chapter 2 presents an overview of the intricate and multifaceted landscape of the U.S. energy system, exploring its various elements and the complex interactions among them. It provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the U.S. energy system, including electricity generation, non-electrical energy sources, and energy consumption patterns. The chapter also highlights the critical role of the energy economy in shaping the transition to sustainable and resilient energy sources. Furthermore, the chapter examines the potential of hydrogen as a key player in the future energy system, emphasizing its ability to enhance energy security, reduce carbon emissions, and support diverse industrial applications. Finally, the chapter discusses the challenges and shortcomings of existing decision-making approaches for complex energy systems, underscoring the need for new methodologies that integrate multidisciplinary insights and address uncertainties. Chapter 3 elaborates on the complexity of energy systems and underscores the importance of interdisciplinary approaches to address their challenges. It highlights the roles of systems thinking and systems engineering in developing a novel decision-making framework for energy systems. Systems thinking is presented as a holistic approach that considers both internal and external interactions of system elements, enabling better decision-making by providing insights into complex interactions and long-term perspectives. Systems engineering is defined as an interdisciplinary approach that ensures the successful realization of complex systems by connecting various engineering disciplines, evaluating stakeholder needs, and applying standardized methods throughout the system life cycle. The chapter also discusses specific methods and tools, such as system dynamics and model-based systems engineering, that are used in this research to develop a framework for informed decision-making in energy systems. Chapter 4 explores the deployment dynamics of novel energy technologies, focusing on onshore wind, utility-scale solar photovoltaic, and clean hydrogen generation energy systems. The research examines various factors influencing deployment, including policy and regulation, technological advancements, economic considerations, environmental concerns, public perception, and infrastructure capabilities. Qualitative analysis identifies key dynamics such as the role of government policies and incentives, technological advancements, economic factors, environmental concerns, and public perception in accelerating technology adoption. Quantitative modeling provides insights into factors driving capacity growth and cost reductions, demonstrating the model's ability to simulate the trajectory of novel energy technology adoption. Sensitivity studies highlight the importance of resource availability, willingness to invest, and technological learning as influential factors affecting capacity growth. Scenario analyses confirm the significant impact of federal incentives and technological learning on both capacity growth, the levelized cost of energy, and the levelized cost of hydrogen. Chapter 5 expands the exploration of energy system deployment presented in Chapter 4 into a more granular problem—the crafting of a decision support framework aimed at configuring energy systems on a smaller scale. The principal objective is to leverage systems engineering principles and tools systematically to minimize the risk of suboptimal system configurations that fail to align with stakeholder requirements or regional conditions, potentially resulting in reduced or lost profits. The need for this new approach is underscored by the inherent complexity and uncertainty in energy systems, which necessitates a structured, multidisciplinary evaluation method to facilitate high-level decision-making and ensure the selection of the most feasible and beneficial system concepts. Finally, Chapter 6 presents conclusions, research contributions, and opportunities for future work. The findings from this research have several implications for policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders. Policymakers are encouraged to maintain consistent and supportive government policies and incentives to reduce market volatility and encourage sustained investment in renewable energy projects. Investors can benefit from understanding the dynamics of technology adoption and the factors influencing profitable capacity, emphasizing the significance of technological learning and cost reductions. Industry stakeholders should focus on scaling up developer capacity and investing in technological improvements, collaborating with policymakers to ensure supportive regulatory environments and incentives. In summary, the transition to novel energy technologies is a complex but essential process in addressing climate change and ensuring energy security. This research highlights the critical factors influencing this transition and provides a robust model for understanding the dynamics of energy technology adoption. By leveraging these insights, stakeholders can make informed decisions to support the accelerated deployment of renewable energy systems, contributing to a sustainable and resilient energy future.