CLIMATE ADAPTATION METHOD FOR RESILIENCE OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES OVER LONG TIME HORIZONS

Abstract

Hurricanes are among the most devastating natural hazards, and their impacts have intensified with climate change and ongoing urban development, making them the most destructive climate-related hazard in terms of both economic losses and fatalities in the U.S. in recent decades. While extensive research has focused on hurricane modeling and future exposure risk, relatively little attention has been given to mitigating the long-term social impacts on communities. This study addresses this gap by proposing a quantitative methodology to evaluate community resilience over extended time horizons under a changing climate. Long-term resilience to hurricane-induced multi-hazards is assessed through population outmigration, which serves as an indicator of community stability and development. The analysis integrates factors such as global warming, urban change, household and neighborhood demographics, and building-level hurricane response and recovery. Moreover, the framework allows for the incorporation of diverse climate adaptation strategies that can influence household decisions or building performance, thereby reducing hurricane impacts within a defined planning period. The outcomes of resilience planning are presented in a novel and interpretable format, the Climate Adaptation Matrix (CAM), which links various levels of adaptation strategies to different climate change scenarios. The CAM enables community stakeholders to explicitly identify the levels of adaptation action required to achieve specific community resilience goals.