Forecasting summer/fall El Niño-southern oscillation events at 6-11 month lead times
| dc.contributor.author | Seseske, Stacey A., author | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-02-20T18:18:14Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-02-20T18:18:14Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2004-06 | |
| dc.description | June 2004. | |
| dc.description | Principal investigator: William M. Gray. | |
| dc.description.abstract | Accurately predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is an important yet challenging task, especially at the extended range of 6-11 months. This research offers a new methodology for forecasting extended range ENSO events, utilizing global data and a statistical model. Most ENSO forecasts utilize data local to the Pacific Ocean basin. This research uses an all-subsets technique to select from an inclusive pool of global predictors that are able to capture useful ENSO precursor signals beyond the Pacific basin. A multiple linear regression using the best five predictors produced a December 1 forecast for the June-July-August (6-8 month forecast) and the September-October-November (9-11 month forecast) Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly SSTA) in the Niño 3-4 region (5°N-5°S, 120-170°W). The performance of each forecast was then compared to the analogous 1 December ENSO-CLIPER (Knaff and Landsea 1911) forecast which is held as a benchmark for specifying ENSO forecast skill. Results for the 6-8 month forecast (1 December to JJA) show that the scheme presented in this research (herein referred to as SG) explains more variance than that of the ENSO-CLIPER scheme. The SG scheme accounts for 58 percent of the variance for the period 1952-2002, while the ENSO-CLIPER model explains only 14 percent for the same period. The 9-11 month forecast (1 December to SON) shows that SG only improves slightly upon ENSO-CIOPER. The SG forecast explained 3;6 percent of the variance for the 1950-2002 period, while ENSO-CLIPER explained 25 percent. However, by combining the two schemes (SG + ENSO-CLIPER) it is possible to explain over 50 percent of the variance in the SON SSTA timeseries 9-11 months in advance. | |
| dc.format.medium | born digital | |
| dc.format.medium | reports | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/10217/236293 | |
| dc.language | English | |
| dc.language.iso | eng | |
| dc.publisher | Colorado State University. Libraries | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Atmospheric Science Papers (Blue Books) | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Atmospheric science paper, no. 749 | |
| dc.rights | Copyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright. | |
| dc.subject | Climatic changes -- Forecasting | |
| dc.subject | El Niño Current | |
| dc.subject | Southern oscillation | |
| dc.title | Forecasting summer/fall El Niño-southern oscillation events at 6-11 month lead times | |
| dc.type | Text | |
| dc.type | Image | |
| dcterms.rights.dpla | This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights (https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/). You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). |
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