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Quantifying climate change impacts on future water resources and salinity transport in a high semi-arid watershed using the APEX-MODFLOW-Salt model

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dc.contributor.authorBalakrishnan, Jaya Vignesh, author
dc.contributor.authorBailey, Ryan, advisor
dc.contributor.authorArabi, Mazdak, advisor
dc.contributor.authorRonayne, Michael, committee member
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-01T17:27:11Z
dc.date.available2023-06-01T17:27:11Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractHigh salinity mobilization and movement from salt laden deposits in semi-arid landscape poses threat to impairment of soil and water resources worldwide. Semi-arid regions in the world are expected to experience rising temperatures and lower precipitation, which will impact water supply and likely spatio-temporal patterns of salinity loads affecting downstream water quality. No studies have evaluated salt fate and transport from high desert landscapes under the influence of future climate uncertainties. This study quantifies the impact of future climate change on hydrology and salinity transport and their total watershed yield in the Gunnison River Watershed (GRW) (14,608 km2), Colorado, using the APEX-MODFLOW-Salt hydro-chemical watershed model and three different CMIP5 climate models output downscaled by Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA), each for two climate scenarios, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for the period 2020–2099. The APEX-MODFLOW-Salt model accounts for transport of hydrology and major salt ions (SO42-, Cl-, CO32-, HCO3-, Ca2+, Na+, Mg2+, and K+) to in-stream loading via various hydrological pathways (surface runoff, rainfall erosional runoff, soil lateral flow, quick return flow and groundwater discharge to streams). Results indicate that varying trends in precipitation output from different climate models with different RCP yields varying trends in annual average water yield (mm/ year) with predicted maximum and minimum change of +7.3% and -13.4% but annual average salinity loads (kg/year) discharged via watershed outlet simulation increased consistently with maximum and minimum change of +9.6% and +4.1% from the baseline scenario of 2007-2017. From the results, this conjunction of APEX-MODFLOW-Salt model with downscaled future climate forcings can be a helpful modeling framework for investigating hydrology and salt mobilization, transport, and export in both historical and predictive settings for salt-affected watersheds in the world.
dc.format.mediumborn digital
dc.format.mediummasters theses
dc.identifierBalakrishnan_colostate_0053N_17669.pdf
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10217/236589
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherColorado State University. Libraries
dc.relation.ispartof2020-
dc.rightsCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.
dc.titleQuantifying climate change impacts on future water resources and salinity transport in a high semi-arid watershed using the APEX-MODFLOW-Salt model
dc.typeText
dcterms.rights.dplaThis Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights (https://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/). You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s).
thesis.degree.disciplineCivil and Environmental Engineering
thesis.degree.grantorColorado State University
thesis.degree.levelMasters
thesis.degree.nameMaster of Science (M.S.)

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