Landscape & meteorological drivers of burn severity in the southern Rockies

Abstract

The increasing occurrence and severity of wildfires in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion over recent decades requires a comprehensive assessment of the drivers of burn severity. This study uses Random Forest models to analyze the relative importance of landscape and meteorological variables in determining burn severity across the Southern Rockies Ecoregion from 2001 to 2020. Key landscape variables and parameters included latitude, elevation, fire behavior fuel model, and northness, while important weather and meteorological variables included minimum temperature, precipitation as snow, July/August precipitation, and maximum temperature. The model indicates that landscape variables were stronger predictors of burn severity, but the inclusion of weather and meteorological data improved model performance. This highlights the complex dynamics between terrain, vegetation, and weather/meteorology. This interdisciplinary approach provides insights for fire management strategies and emphasized the need for detailed landscape and meteorological data to predict and mitigate wildfire impacts in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion.