Optimistic bias in relation to hurricane risk

Abstract

Public officials in the natural disaster field benefit from knowing whether individuals tend to underestimate or overestimate the dangers they could face from future hurricanes. Correcting hurricane risk misperceptions can encourage individuals living in coastal regions to take action and prepare themselves for the next hurricane season. One of the first steps in this process is to understand social perceptions of risk. In order to so, this quantitative study explored optimistic bias in relation to hurricane risk. Optimistic bias is defined as the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about life events (Weinstein, 1980). Weinstein explains this belief through the idea that individuals expect others to suffer hardship, but not themselves. After conducting a secondary analysis on 824 surveys collected from Gulf Coast residents, results show implications on the effects that dispositional optimism, age and tenure have on optimistic bias pertaining to hurricane risk. This data provides important information for future research and has implications for hurricane risk education.