A long-term context for snow water equivalent trends in Rocky Mountain National Park
Date
2017
Authors
Patterson, Glenn G., author
Fassnacht, Steven R., author
Colorado State University, publisher
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Abstract
The seasonal snowpack in Rocky Mountain National Park is critical to the local and downstream water supply and the ecosystem of the park, and is important for winter recreational opportunities. Recent regional studies of trends in observed snow water equivalent (SWE) over the past three and a half decades have illustrated that temperatures are rising. Snow accumulation is decreasing, averaging on the order of a 2 to 4 cm/decade decline with snowmelt tending to be earlier, averaging on the order of 2 to 4 days/decade sooner. To place these SWE trends observed over the past few decades into a longer-term context, multi-century SWE reconstructions were derived from tree-ring widths and examined to determine whether similar multi-decade trends have occurred in the past. Possible SWE trends were examined into the future using projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models linked to hydrologic models to identify models that best fit the observed data. From these model projections, possible SWE trends were estimated for the remainder of the 21st century. Results of the paleo-analysis suggest that similar multi-decade declining trends in SWE have occurred in the study area at certain times over the past four centuries. Results of the model projections suggest that recently observed trends (past 3+ decades) are likely to continue over the next eight or so decades.
Description
2017 annual AGU hydrology days was held at Colorado State University on March 20 - March 22, 2017.
Includes bibliographical references.
Includes bibliographical references.