On the importance of spatial correlation in stochastic precipitation used in water supply modeling

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Abstract
This paper discusses the importance of accounting for spatial correlation in stochastically generated precipitation records used in water supply modeling studies. By means of a case study, it is shown that the failure to reproduce the spatial correlations among stochastic precipitation records in a large watershed leads to an under-estimation of the variance of basin-wide precipitation volumes and consequently an over-estimation of water supply reliability. This in turn can lead to under-estimation of the active storage requirements for proposed reservoirs and, ultimately, water supply infrastructure ...
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