A net-risk approach to displacement and reoccupation decision making

Abstract

Decision makers and planners have a large body of information available concerning most aspects of a radiation disaster. International and national standards organizations, as well as national and local level policies and plans provide little guidance about the risks involved in relocating a population from a radiologically contaminated area. Populations displaced after all types of disasters have demonstrated poorer health outcomes, both physiological and psychological, than their non-displaced peers. These include a greater risk of diabetes and greater rates of post-traumatic stress disorder and depression when compared with other populations who experienced the disaster but were not relocated. Methodologies for population-level radiation dose prediction have improved, with recent data from contaminated areas in Japan providing real-world information about radiation doses. These improvements have not yet made their way into policies and guidance. The objective of this work is to quantify and incorporate multiple forms of risk, radiological and non-radiological, into a single model to improve decision making and minimize harm connected to displacement from and reoccupation of radiologically contaminated areas after a disaster.