Towards understanding the role of natural variability in climate change
Natural variability plays a large role in determining surface climate on local and regional scales. Understanding the role of natural variability is crucial for accurately assessing and attributing climate trends, both past and future. One successful way to examine the role of natural variability in climate change has been through large ensembles of climate models. This thesis uses one such large ensemble (the NCAR CESM-LE) to test various methods used to quantify natural variability in the context of climate change. We first introduce a simple analytic expression for calculating the lead time ...
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