Vulnerability to drought in the La Paz, Mexico watershed

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between drought vulnerability and migration in the ranchero community in the Sierras of the La Paz watershed in Baja California Sur, Mexico. Using household survey data, I examine how the various dimensions of vulnerability are related to migration as an adaptation strategy to drought. Contrary to what is predicted by environmental migration and climate vulnerability theory, drought exposed rancheros who had high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity did not use migration as an adaptation strategy in the last severe drought (2006-2012), despite migration being a central part of their traditional culture. This dissertation shows how rural upstream households are constrained in traditional adaptation options (including migration options) while new options have become available (including sedentary options) - because of other social changes in the same watershed, specifically, the expansion of urban services. Taking a closer look at watershed dynamics, I find that urban services have both positive and negative impacts on ranchero drought vulnerability. On the one hand, urban services diversify ranchero water sources in normal seasons; on the other hand, access to urban services does not remain consistent in severe drought. I conclude with a new conceptualization of drought responses with a discussion of the implications of these findings for future research and public policy that includes a need for broader stakeholder inclusion.