Atmospheric Science Papers (Blue Books)
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Much of this digital collection of Blue Books comes from CSU's Department of Atmospheric Science. Included are student theses and dissertations and project reports dating from 1959 to 2007. The works focus on different areas of atmospheric science research such as climate change, severe weather, climatology, solar radiation, remote sensing, wind forecasting, and air quality.
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- ItemOpen AccessForecasting summer/fall El Niño-southern oscillation events at 6-11 month lead times(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2004-06) Seseske, Stacey A., authorAccurately predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is an important yet challenging task, especially at the extended range of 6-11 months. This research offers a new methodology for forecasting extended range ENSO events, utilizing global data and a statistical model. Most ENSO forecasts utilize data local to the Pacific Ocean basin. This research uses an all-subsets technique to select from an inclusive pool of global predictors that are able to capture useful ENSO precursor signals beyond the Pacific basin. A multiple linear regression using the best five predictors produced a December 1 forecast for the June-July-August (6-8 month forecast) and the September-October-November (9-11 month forecast) Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly SSTA) in the Niño 3-4 region (5°N-5°S, 120-170°W). The performance of each forecast was then compared to the analogous 1 December ENSO-CLIPER (Knaff and Landsea 1911) forecast which is held as a benchmark for specifying ENSO forecast skill. Results for the 6-8 month forecast (1 December to JJA) show that the scheme presented in this research (herein referred to as SG) explains more variance than that of the ENSO-CLIPER scheme. The SG scheme accounts for 58 percent of the variance for the period 1952-2002, while the ENSO-CLIPER model explains only 14 percent for the same period. The 9-11 month forecast (1 December to SON) shows that SG only improves slightly upon ENSO-CIOPER. The SG forecast explained 3;6 percent of the variance for the 1950-2002 period, while ENSO-CLIPER explained 25 percent. However, by combining the two schemes (SG + ENSO-CLIPER) it is possible to explain over 50 percent of the variance in the SON SSTA timeseries 9-11 months in advance.
- ItemOpen AccessIntraseasonal oscillations and the Southeast Asian monsoon onset(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2001) Loechl, Erica M., authorThe role of intraseasonal oscillations as a triggering mechanism for the Southeast Asian monsoon (SEAM) is investigated through a detailed study of the 1998 SEAM and expanded analysis to include the 20 years from 1979-1998. Spectral analysis of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at each gridpoint over the South China Sea (SCS) (10-20° N, 110-120° E) revealed the presence of intraseasonal oscillations with periods of 12-24 days and 30-60 days during the monsoon season. The SCS is an area of maximum variability for both of these oscillations during the SEAM onset. The monsoon onset was defined as the first day of sustained convection (based on analysis of OLR) and the commencement of southerly and westerly winds over the SCS. The range of SEAM onset dates for the 20 year period was from 10 May - 15 June. The onset timing was considered normal if it occurred between 11 May - 31 May. Analysis of band-pass filtered OLR, 850 and 200 mb winds suggest the 1998 SEAM onset was triggered by the nearly simultaneous arrival of the 12-24 day and 30-60 day oscillations into the SCS. The main component of the 12-24 day oscillation developed in the northwest Pacific near Japan and propagated southwestward into the SCS. The 30-60 day oscillation is comprised of the eastward-moving Madden-Julian oscillation {MJO) and the northward-moving monsoon trough. Lag regression analysis revealed circulation and convection patterns of the intraseasonal oscillations for the 20 years to be similar to the patterns seen in 1998. However, the oscillations appeared to be stronger during the monsoon onsets compared to the entire monsoon seasons. Significant midlatitude influence on the SCS during the onset was observed in the regressions in the form of an upper and lower level wave train that extended from the SCS into the northern Pacific. The northern part of the SCS (15-20° N) served as a "transition-zone" between midlatitudes and the tropics. Regressions based on this area displayed characteristics of both midlatitude and tropical influence during the SEAM onset. The interannual variability of the onset timing and intraseasonal oscillations was assessed by catagorizing each year according to the onset timing, presence of intraseasonal oscillations at the onset, and ENSO phase. Years where both the 12-24 day and 30-60 day oscillation were present at the onset tended to have normal onsets. Years where only the 30-60 day mode was present at the SEAM onset had the earliest onsets and years where neither oscillation was present at the SEAM onset had the latest onsets. It appears that the existence of intraseasonal oscillations assists the monsoon onset and can cause it to happen earlier than it would otherwise occur. However, monsoon onsets will occur despite the absence of such oscillations - they simply will occur later. A direct link between the onset timing and ENSO events was not obvious from this study.
- ItemOpen AccessTrace gases, aerosols, and solar radiation in the stratosphere -- explored and unexplored problem areas(Colorado State University. Libraries, 1973) Reiter, Elmar R., author; American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, publisherThe Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP) of the Department of Transportation is--among other things--faced with the task of providing a detailed review of the "undisturbed" stratosphere as it exists before the commencement of SST traffic. CIAP Monograph No. 1, presently in preparation, deals with this "natural stratosphere." Material for a rough draft of this volume was compiled by approximately 90 scientists during a workshop in Ft. Lauderdale from November 28 through December 1, 1972. This short review paper, based upon the draft of CIAP Monograph No. 1, points out the highlights of our present knowledge of the stratosphere, especially with respect to the O3, NOx and H2O problems, and also explores some of the deficiencies in this knowledge which will have to be overcome before a complete assessment of human impact on this atmospheric region can be made.
- ItemOpen AccessPaper III. Clear air turbulence models and forecasting for Project Topcat, second phase, September 1-30, 1963(Colorado State University. Libraries, 1964-05) Reiter, Elmar R., authorA short account is given of clear-air turbulence (CAT) forecasting models and procedures used in "Project TOPCAT", from September 1 through October 3, 1963. Some preliminary results from the project are communicated.
- ItemOpen AccessWie entstehen die tropischen Hurrikans?(Colorado State University. Libraries, 1963) Riehl, Herbert, author; Umschau Verlag, publisher