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Browsing by Author "Frasier, W. Marshall, advisor"

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    Bioeconomic modeling of livestock production, rangeland management and forage systems in a dynamic context
    (Colorado State University. Libraries, 2008) Ritten, John Patrick, author; Frasier, W. Marshall, advisor
    This work focuses on optimal livestock management in a dynamic framework. The first essay utilizes linear programming to analyze proper herd management during periods of drought. It also examines the use of summer hay as an option to alleviate the negative impacts of drought on cattle producers. Findings show that while financial returns are greatly impacted by varying cattle prices, optimal management decisions are driven more by weather changes than price changes. Further analysis shows that although allowing summer feed improves long term returns to producers, the main benefit of such a strategy is the ability to carry increased inventories though drought, with the increased returns coming post-drought. The second essay utilizes dynamic programming to determine proper stocking rates when future forage production is related to current use of rangelands. The model maximizes the Bellman Equation using a Chebychev interpolation process. Results show that profit maximizing producers will leave just over half of total production as standing forage. Further analysis shows that while returns are impacted by both cattle and corn prices, optimal management decisions do not change with changes in either of these. Stocking decisions are mainly driven by animal efficiency and land productivity. The third essay adds the element of stochastic weather to the model utilized in the second essay. Specific attention is given to how producers make stocking decisions in the face of random weather events. Again, producers leave just over half of carrying capacity as standing forage when acting optimally. However, if growing season precipitation is unknown at the time the stocking decision is made actual standing forage may vary from this desired outcome, resulting in a decrease in future stocking rates. It is shown that a producer with knowledge of growing season precipitation will be more profitable than a producer without this knowledge on average by 21%. Again, stocking decisions are mainly driven by land productivity and animal efficiency as well as whether or not a producer has knowledge of current year precipitation.
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    The economic impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza on egg production in Minnesota during the 2014 - 2015 outbreak
    (Colorado State University. Libraries, 2016) Bockelmann, Troy Robert, author; Frasier, W. Marshall, advisor; Koontz, Stephen R., committee member; Magzamen, Sheryl, committee member
    Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the United States affected 48 million domestic poultry birds. Minnesota experienced 101 confirmed detections with the majority in the laying hen and turkey populations. This research employs mathematical programming to estimate individual egg producer net returns above transportation costs for each week of the outbreak period and to aggregate these estimates to an industry-level impact. When there is a detection of HPAI the primary government response is to designate control areas around the infected premises. Within these control areas rules are established for culling of poultry and restricting travel. A three kilometer and a ten kilometer “control area” perimeter are standard guideline practices established by USDA-APHIS. A linear programming model is developed and parameterized to calculate returns under a range of control scenarios in the face of the historical outbreak. By updating and solving the model iteratively to represent adaptation to on outbreak across time, results for each time period computed and compared to a base model that represents an uninfected circumstance. The change in net revenue as compared to the base equilibrium scenario quantify the lost benefits that comprise the economic impacts from HPAI. Overall total industry loss for the 14-week outbreak period ranged from $7 million where three kilometer radius control areas were employed to $10 million a ten kilometer regime. Fourteen percent of producers lost less than $10,000 in revenue and approximately 3 percent of the producers lost revenue greater than $1 million. The increase in transportation costs for the three kilometer control area was approximately $25 and approximately $11,000 for the ten kilometer control areas. Preventing the spread of HPAI is important to society. Measures to prevent disease spread are important and need to be enforced. It is important that these additional avoidance and adaptation costs be considered when determining the best implementation of control measures in the face of a disease outbreak.