Evaluating United States and world consumption of neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium in final products
This paper develops scenarios of future rare-earth-magnet metal (neodymium, dysprosium, terbium, and praseodymium) consumption in the permanent magnets used in wind turbines and hybrid electric vehicles. The scenarios start with naive base-case scenarios for growth in wind-turbine and hybrid-electric-vehicle sales over the period 2011 to 2020, using historical data for each good. These naive scenarios assume that future growth follows time trends in historical data and does not depend on any exogenous variable. Specifically, growth of each technological market follows historical time trends, and ...
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