Data associated with "Modeling U.S. cattle movements until the cows come home: who ships to whom and how many?"

Sellman, StefanBeck-Johnson, LindsayHallman, ClaytonMiller, Ryan S.Owers Bonner, Katharine A.Portacci, KatieWebb, Colleen T.Lindström, Tom2021-12-132021-12-132021https://hdl.handle.net/10217/234115http://dx.doi.org/10.25675/10217/234115Each file in each zipped folder represents a single simulated cattle shipment network among the counties of the contiguous United States, generated from the U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM) version 3. Files in the USAMM-BEEF folder describe shipment networks for beef production only. Files in the USAMM-DAIRY folder describe shipment networks for dairy production only. Each zipped folder contains 1000 files, representing 1000 shipment networks.Department of BiologyLivestock movements between agricultural premises is an important pathway for the spread of infectious disease. Data providing details about the origin and destination of shipments, as well as information about the shipment size is an important component of computer models used to formulate mitigation strategies and design surveillance programs. The United States (U.S.) currently lacks a comprehensive database of farm animal shipments, which hinders such efforts. With the U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM), earlier work has successfully scaled up from limited data based on interstate certificates of veterinary inspection (CVI) to comprehensive county-level shipment networks at the national scale. In this work, we present three major improvements to earlier versions of USAMM: (1) increased resolution of the model and simulated networks to the level of individual premises; (2) predictions of shipment sizes; (3) taking into account the types and herd sizes of the premises. We fitted parameters in a Bayesian framework to two sets of CVI data consisting of sub-samples of one year's between-state beef and dairy shipments. Through posterior predictive simulation, we then created 1,000 synthetic beef and dairy networks, which we make publicly available to support livestock disease modeling. The simulated networks were validated against summary statistics of the training data as well as out-of-sample CVI data from subsequent years. This new development opens up the possibility of using USAMM in a broader spectrum of applications where information about shipment size and premises identity is necessary and gives novel insights into the U.S. cattle shipment network.ZIPTXTenganimal movementnetwork predictioncattleData associated with "Modeling U.S. cattle movements until the cows come home: who ships to whom and how many?"Dataset