Tuladhar, Avalokita, authorBailey, Ryan T., advisorShanmugam, Mohana Sundaram, advisorSmith, Ryan, committee memberRoss, Matthew, committee member2024-01-012024-01-012023https://hdl.handle.net/10217/237339Nutrients such as nitrogen can be harmful to aquatic organisms when loaded to receive water in excessive amounts. Climate change, through possible increases in temperature and variable rainfall, may cause changes in nutrient loading patterns from watersheds. This study assesses the potential impact of climate and land use change on nitrate (NO3) loading in the Nanticoke River Watershed (NRW), Chesapeake Bay region, USA, using an updated version of SWAT+ watershed model that simulates groundwater nitrate fate and transport in a physically based spatially distributed manner. The nutrient loadings from the NRW eventually drain into the Chesapeake Bay, exacerbating eutrophication. The model was simulated for the 2000-2015 time, and tested against measured streamflow, in-stream nitrate loadings, and groundwater head at various stream gages and monitoring wells. Once tested, the model was used to simulate changes in hydrological and nitrate fluxes under two future climates, according to Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, and land use changes as projected by USGS's FORE-SCE model. The projected results show that in the future climate change is to be responsible for an 18-34% and 22-33% decrease in annual average streamflow and a 4-22% and 4-11% decrease in annual average nitrate loading as projected under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for future timelines (near 2024-2048, mid 2049-2073 and far future 2074-2099), respectively. The overall decrease in future streamflow is due to higher temperatures resulting in higher evapotranspiration during summer months, offsetting the additional precipitation. The decrease in nitrate loading in the channel is influenced by lower runoff, and elevated nitrate concentration in the soil, leading to increased leaching into groundwater. This surge in soil nitrate concentration results from reduced plant uptake of nitrate due to decreased plant growth/lower crop yields. The stunted plant growth is due to reduced mineralization of nitrogen in the soil which, in turn, is linked to decreasing soil water content and water stress from higher surface temperatures. As compared to the influence of climate, land use change resulted in a minor decrease in future nitrate loading. These results and insights can be used in future nutrient management for similar landscapes. In addition, we show that the updated SWAT+ model can be a useful tool in quantifying and investigating nitrate fate and transport dynamics in coupled surface-soil-aquifer-channel systems, particularly for systems with a strong hydraulic connection between the unconfined aquifer and channel networkborn digitalmasters thesesengCopyright and other restrictions may apply. User is responsible for compliance with all applicable laws. For information about copyright law, please see https://libguides.colostate.edu/copyright.Text