Longitudinal and geographic analysis of the relationship between natural disasters and crime in the United States
Date
2012
Authors
Prelog, Andrew J., author
O'Connor Shelley, Tara, advisor
Peek, Lori, advisor
Hogan, Michael, committee member
Zahran, Sammy, committee member
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Abstract
Natural disasters and crime are ubiquitous in the United States. The public generally views the social disorder associated with disaster events as criminogenic--that is, disasters somehow foster opportunistic criminal behavior. Scientific investigation into the relationship between disaster and crime is more nuanced--and at times has produced contradictory and inconsistent findings. This dissertation research explores the relationship between disaster and crime in the continental United States to investigate the question of whether disasters of different magnitudes and/or types differentially affect crime rates. I employ three sociological theories to inform the analyses. First, sociology of disaster researchers, using the therapeutic community hypothesis, have long asserted that disasters reduce criminal activity both during and after the event. Second, criminologists using social disorganization theory assert that disaster may increase the likelihood and occurrence of crime. Third, researchers using routine activity theory suggest that disaster may increase or decrease criminal activity, depending on how a disaster restructures formal and informal mechanisms of social control, and criminal opportunity. To investigate this question, I use geographic and longitudinal analyses of 14 years of county-level data on socio-demographic predictors of crime, crime rates, and disaster impacts. I statistically model 11 different categories of crime and impacts from 12 different disaster types using geographic information systems, hierarchical linear modeling, and geographically weighted regression. In general, findings indicate that higher crime rates are associated with larger disaster magnitudes. The effect is not consistent for all categories of crime investigated in this research. Findings also indicate that certain types of disasters have a differential effect on crime outcomes, independent of disaster magnitude. This research and results represent the first county-level geographic and longitudinal analysis of disaster and crime for the United States.
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Subject
crime
natural disaster