Streamflow forecasting in a snow-dominated river of Chile
Date
2021
Authors
Pérez Peredo, Felipe Andrés, author
Fassnacht, Steven, advisor
Sibold, Jason, committee member
Barnard, Dave, committee member
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Abstract
The combination of 10 years of drought in the Chilean Andes and an increased demand water supply and agricultural activities has created the need for better forecasts to inform water management and decision making. The existing water supply forecasts have been insufficient for the snow-dominated systems originating in the mountains, especially under the new drought conditions. Future climate change and inter-annual variability will further require the use of more detailed snowpack information to create better water supply forecasts. This research focuses on the monthly water supply forecast for the basin upstream the flow gauging station called Río Aconcagua en Chacabuquito, in central Chile. This basin is located in the Mediterranean climate zone, originating at the highest peak in the Andes, Aconcagua. Meteorological data are collected at several stations in the lower elevations, and snowpack information, specifically monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) has been collected at the higher elevation Portillo snow course since 1951. Here, a new methodology is created to improve the seasonal volume and the monthly distribution streamflow forecasts, using available information from operational and more representative stations. Results are being evaluated for the current snowmelt period (September 2020 to March 2021), with monthly updates. Improvements have been seen in the seasonal volume, due the use of historical data and because the new methodology also incorporates the recent dry years, unlike the previous forecast model. Improvement in the monthly distributions are seen due the newly adopted methodology distribution.
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Subject
hydrology
forecasting
snow