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Evaluating cotton yield potential in the Ogallala Aquifer region

Date

2006-10

Authors

Gowda, Prasanna, author
Esparza, Allison, author
Baumhardt, R. Louis, author
Colaizzi, Paul, author
Howell, Terry, author
U.S. Committee on Irrigation and Drainage, publisher

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Abstract

Renewed interest in cotton production in the Ogallala aquifer region can be tied to development of early maturing varieties, and declining water levels in the Ogallala aquifer. However, the feasibility of growing cotton considering thermal characteristics of the region has not been determined. In this study, the heat unit based county-wide exceedance probability curves for potential cotton yield were developed using a long term temperature dataset (1971-2000) and identified counties that have the potential to grow cotton at 1- and 2-year return periods. Out of 131 counties in the study area, 105 counties have the potential to grow cotton with lint yield more than 500 kg/ha. Evaluation of county-wide potential cotton yield indicate that yield goals based on a 2-year return period may improve the chances of better profits to producers than yield goals with 1-year return period. However, management uncertainties on irrigation efficiencies, fertilizer and pest management, planting and harvesting schedule may require further consideration for estimating potential cotton yield. Nevertheless, these results show that cotton is a suitable alternative crop for most counties in southwest Kansas and all counties in Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Also, a significant reduction in annual water withdrawals (about 60.4 million ha-mm) from the Ogallala aquifer for irrigation is possible if producers were to switch 50 percent of their corn acreage to cotton in counties that have yield potential more than 500 kg/ha.

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Presented at Ground water and surface water under stress: competition, interaction, solutions: a USCID water management conference on October 25-28, 2006 in Boise, Idaho.

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