Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-disciplinary Research Conference

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https://hdl.handle.net/10217/195524

"Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-disciplinary Research Conference" was held June 9-10, 2015 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. Mongolia is a semi-arid and arid country in Asia where the climate has been changing more drastically than many other locations across the globe. The proceedings was divided into five sections: 1) Rangeland Ecology and Management, 2) Climate Change and Hydrology, 3) Institutional Innovations in Mongolian Rangelands, 4) Social and Economic Development in Rural Mongolia, and 5) Methods of Knowledge and Data Integration. The papers presented provided cause for concern regarding observed changes in climate, rangeland conditions and livestock populations, as well as reasons for hope and motivations for action to address the current challenges. It is hoped this conference inspired renewed commitment to support science and science-based policy-making and management to sustain Mongolia's unique natural and cultural heritage as they adapt to a changing planet. These digital collections include the entire conference proceedings in both English and Mongolian, and individual papers given at the conference, also in English and Mongolian.

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Open Access
A journey down the Tuin: the hydraulics of an internal draining river from the Khangai Mountains to the Gobi Desert
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Fassnacht, Steven R., author; Venable, Niah B. H., author; Odgarav, Jigjsuren, author; Sukhbaatar, Jaminkhuyag, author; Adyabadam, Gelegpil, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
River systems flowing through semi-arid and arid regions provide critical ecosystem services for inhabitants of these areas. In remote and/or difficult to access areas away from population centers, few direct measurements exist to characterize the nature of streamflow in these systems. The Tuin River flows from the rugged high mountain and forest steppe landscape of the Khangai Mountains in central Mongolia to its terminus at Orog Lake in the desert steppe and sand dunes of the northern Gobi Desert. Field measurements taken in June 2012 at numerous locations from river headwaters to mouth were used to characterize streamflow in the main river channel and associated floodplain. From these measurements, channel hydraulic characteristics were estimated and hydrologic properties were assessed using a digital elevation model and other spatial data. These properties include contributing area, slope, hydraulic radius, and channel roughness. During the low flow conditions of the survey, streamflow was decreasing from upstream to downstream. At a point between the Bayankhongor and Bogd gaging stations, streamflow ceased at the surface and reappeared approximately 10 kilometres downstream, exemplifying losing flow conditions and subsurface flow components. The results of this analysis could be scalable to other internally draining river systems, especially for hydrologic modelling.
Open Access
Acknowledgement of conference and proceedings funders
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands, Organizing Committee, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
The Organizing Committee of the Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands: A Trans-disciplinary Research Conference would like to acknowledge all supporters and organizers of this conference.
Open Access
Building resilience of Mongolian rangelands: a trans-disciplinary research conference
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Fernandez-Gimenez, Maria E., author; Baival, Batkhishig, author; Fassnacht, Steven R., author; Wilson, David, author; Ganbold, Chimgee, author; Vanluu, Dugermaa, author; Purevsuren, Munkhzul, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Mongolia is a semi-arid and arid country in Asia where the climate has been changing more drastically than many other locations across the globe. The proceedings of the "Trans-disciplinary Research Conference: Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands" is divided into five sections: 1) Rangeland Ecology and Management, 2) Climate Change and Hydrology, 3) Institutional Innovations in Mongolian Rangelands, 4) Social and Economic Development in Rural Mongolia, and 5) Methods of Knowledge and Data Integration. The papers presented provide cause for concern regarding observed changes in climate, rangeland conditions and livestock populations, as well as reasons for hope and motivations for action to address the current challenges. We hope that this volume and the conference it accompanies, will inspire renewed commitment to support science and science-based policy-making and management to sustain Mongolia's unique natural and cultural heritage as they adapt to a changing planet.
Open Access
Building resilience of Mongolian rangelands: a trans-disciplinary research conference - preface
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Fernandez-Gimenez, Maria E., author; Fassnacht, Steven R., author; Baival, Batkhishig, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Mongolia is a semi-arid and arid country in Asia where the climate has been changing more drastically than many other locations across the globe. The proceedings of the "Trans-disciplinary Research Conference: Building Resilience of Mongolian Rangelands" is divided into five sections: 1) Rangeland Ecology and Management, 2) Climate Change and Hydrology, 3) Institutional Innovations in Mongolian Rangelands, 4) Social and Economic Development in Rural Mongolia, and 5) Methods of Knowledge and Data Integration. The papers presented provide cause for concern regarding observed changes in climate, rangeland conditions and livestock populations, as well as reasons for hope and motivations for action to address the current challenges. We hope that this volume and the conference it accompanies, will inspire renewed commitment to support science and science-based policy-making and management to sustain Mongolia's unique natural and cultural heritage as they adapt to a changing planet.
Open Access
Changes in soil properties along grazing gradients in the mountain and forest steppe, steppe and desert steppe zones of Mongolia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Baasandorj, Ya., author; Khishigbayar, J., author; Fernandez-Gimenez, M. E., author; Tsogtbaatar, J., author; Delgertsetseg, R., author; Chantsallkham, J., author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Recent debates about the condition of Mongolia's rangelands and possible causes of rangeland change highlight the need for greater understanding of changes in grassland soil fertility and physical characteristics associated with grazing. As part of a large observational study of grazing effects on different Mongolian ecological zones and soil types (ecological sites), we studied soil characteristics along grazing gradients from winter shelters in the mountain and forest steppe, steppe and desert steppe ecozones of Mongolia. Our objective was to determine how grazing affects soil properties in winter pastures in different ecological zones and ecological sites within zones, based on grazing gradients. Our findings did not support our hypothesis that livestock grazing along a grazing gradient from winter shelters would lead to increased concentrations of nutrients (C, NO3-, P, K and humus) near the shelters. Instead, where soil chemical properties differed with distance, they were lowest close to winter shelters and higher with increasing distance. As hypothesized, we observed greater bulk densities nearer to winter shelters than farther away. Our hypothesis that grazing effects on soil properties would vary among ecological sites also was not supported. Further experimental and observational studies are needed to understand grazing effects on soil properties at different spatial scales and to examine feedbacks between livestock-induced changes in plant communities and soil quality.
Open Access
Characterizing environmental low flows in terms of magnitude, duration and frequency
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Kenner, Scott J., author; Nergui, Soninkhishig, author; Sodnom, Tumurchudur, author; Khurelbaatar, Tsogzolmaa, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Increased water demand has led to the need for development of water resources in Mongolia. With the Mongolian government implementation of integrated water resources management approach, assessing environmental flow requirements of major rivers becomes a primary issue. Using Indicators of Hydrological Alteration tools, physical habitat survey at Orkhon-Orkhon gauge site and statistical analysis of annual maximum flows, environmental low flow scenarios have been developed that attempt to reflect more "natural" characteristics of magnitude, frequency and duration. Specifically, minimum seasonal low flows of greater than the 75th percentile flow duration with bankfull flow releases during wet periods that have a duration of 12 to 24 days.
Open Access
Contemporary mobility of herders in central Mongolia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Jargalsaikhan, Azjargal, author; Batjav, Batbuyan, author; Baival, Batkhishig, author; Ulambayar, Tungalag, author; Lhagvasuren, Tamir, author; Tsogtbaatar, Solongoo, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Social-ecological changes occurring in recent years have complicated herders' migration patterns, and because of rangeland climate variability, nomadic movement patterns have changed. The aim of this study was to determine how the present movement patterns of herders situated in different steppe regions along the road infrastructure corridor of central Mongolia have been affected by the intensification of community-based natural resource management activities and household livelihood levels, and to identify how herders adapt to those changes in their movement practices. The number and distance of herders' movements increased between 2010 and 2011, depending on regional geographical location and community-based natural resource management activities. In particular, household income and the number of livestock herders owned determined how far they moved. In the period 2010-2011 in central Mongolia there was a trend of movement from the western aimags to the forest steppe and from the desert steppe to the steppe and forest steppe, across administrative borders. Herders have a variety of ways to cope with social-ecological change which demonstrates the basic need for developing location-specific policies when establishing movement regulations and implementing risk reduction measures.
Open Access
Defining the ecological site descriptions and its use as a rangeland management tool in Mongolia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Densambuu, Bulgamaa, author; Ulambayar, Budbaatar, author; Battur, Ankhtsetseg, author; Sainnemekh, Sunjidmaa, author; Nyam-Ochir, Gankhuyag, author; Bestelmeier, Brandon, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
The concept of classifying any area into ecological sites, according to that area's productivity, based on varying soil, climatic and hydrological conditions, and its capacity to endure different intensities of use and to recover from degradation, and of using this classification as a basis of rational use of natural resources is more and more recognized internationally. Since 2009, the Green Gold Project funded by the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) has been exploring opportunities to develop the ecological site description (ESD) concept for Mongolian rangelands and use it as an essential tool of rangeland management. Based on soil, vegetation and geomorphological data collected from approximately 500 points representing nationwide environmental zones, we developed the ESD concept for the Mongolian context. According to this concept Mongolian rangelands are divided into some 20 zones, representing distinct ecological potentials. Based on these plot data and state and transition models a preliminary conclusion is made that over 65 percent of Mongolian rangeland has, with varying degrees, altered from its reference state, and 80 percent of this area has potential to recover through changes in rangeland management. The main objective of this research was to identify, for each environmental zone, the main factors that determine rangeland ecological potential, to develop the ESD concept and to test the possibility of using it in rangeland management. The novelty of this study, as well as its scientific and practical significance, lie in development and testing of a more detailed classification based on ecological potential within Mongolian ecological zones and geo botanical regions. This approach is significant because the classification may be used as an essential tool for rangeland use planning, implementation and monitoring, as well as for regulating rangeland use agreements.
Open Access
Distance-to-well effects on plant community based on palatability and grazing tolerance in the desert-steppe of Mongolia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Narantsetseg, Amartuvshin, author; Kang, Sinkyu, author; Ko, Dongwook, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Wells in grasslands are usually accompanied with increased traffic by humans and livestock. The purpose of this study was to detect whether plant community structure differs in spatial arrangement with different grazing gradients in the desert steppe of Mongolia. We found poor correlation between total coverage and distance-to-well in big-shrub and shrub-limited sites but strong correlation in the small-shrub site. Dominance of palatable plants along the transect appeared in the big-shrub site but that of palatable, grazing avoider and grazing tolerant plants appeared in other two sites. The results show that these communities might respond differently to grazing pressure. Livestock trampling was limited to near the well and then grazing might be effective far from the well, because all sites showed dominance of palatable herbaceous plants. Sub-dominance of Eurotia ceratoides appeared nearest to the well and followed Caragana spp. sub-dominance. Ajania spp. sub-dominance appeared more away than E. ceratoides and Caragana spp. Dominance of palatable herbaceous plants appeared near the well, compared with that of shrubs. In all sites, palatable herbaceous plant community was replaced by grazing tolerant plant community near the well and shrubs disappeared. This indicates that succession after grazing might be faster in herbaceous plant community than shrub one.
Open Access
Do formal, community-based institutions improve rangeland vegetation and soils in Mongolia more than informal, traditional institutions?
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Reid, Robin S., author; Jamsranjav, Chantsallkham, author; Fernandez-Gimenez, Maria E., author; Angerer, Jay, author; Tsevlee, Altanzul, author; Yadambaatar, Baasandorj, author; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar, author; Ulambayar, Tungalag, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Since the 1990's, herding communities across Mongolia have established over 2000 community-based rangeland management (CBRM) organizations to improve livestock grazing management and reverse perceived declines in rangeland (grassland) productivity. Here, we compare the vegetation and soils of rangelands managed by these formal community-based herder groups (CBRM) with those managed by informal traditional neighborhoods (non-CBRM) in four ecological zones across Mongolia. A companion study shows CBRM used both traditional and innovative rangeland management practices more often than traditional neighborhoods. We hypothesized that this should then result in better rangeland vegetation and soils in CBRM-managed than non-CBRM managed rangeland. We sampled vegetation and soils in winter pastures around 143 livestock camps or water points in soums (counties) with and without CBRM management. We explicitly controlled for grazing intensity by sampling plots along grazing gradients at 100, 500 and 1000 m from these impact points. At each 50 x 50 m plot (n=428) we sampled standing biomass, plant cover, basal gap, species richness, forage quality, and soil and site characteristics. We also compared paired time series of MODIS NDVI data in counties with and without CBRM organizations from 2000-2014 to quantify changes in length of the growing season, and current and previous season greenness (a proxy for biomass accumulation). We then analyzed all data using general linear models and χ2 tests. CBRM had surprisingly few and subtle impacts on vegetation and soils in Mongolia's rangelands, whether measured in the field or by remote sensing, compared with areas managed by more traditional neighborhood groups. Some CBRM pastures supported more litter biomass, plant connectivity and less soil erosion, and a lower abundance of grazing tolerant or annual plant species than non-CBRM pastures in some ecological zones. CBRM management appears to modestly improve vegetation condition in the steppe than other ecological zones. At the soum level, we could see no differences in the length of the growing season, current season greenness or current and previous season greenness of the vegetation over the 15 years from 2000-2014. We did find, however, that herding families that participate in CBRM groups hold more livestock, sometimes twice as many, in 3 of the 4 ecological zones. This suggests that CBRM management may be having more impact on pastures than our data show, since these pastures can support more livestock without losing rangeland vegetation abundance and soil retention capacity.
Open Access
Dzud and thresholds of 'property' in Mongolian pastoralism
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Murphy, Daniel J., author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Property and its allocation are key elements of resilience within socio-ecological systems. This presentation compares ethnographic and survey data on shifting ideas of property from 2008 to similar data gathered in 2014 in a district of southern Khentii aimag. The data illustrate how these attitudes emerged, their underlying logics, and how they articulate with broader historical and political economic conditions. The findings raise concern that dzud events could serve as a possible trigger for formal legal transformations in land rights given the increased political rhetoric and calls for land privatization following dzud events. This paper argues that crossing such property thresholds would pose considerable problems for both rangelands and livelihoods and suggests some future avenues for strengthening pastoral systems.
Open Access
Early warning system for pastoral herders to reduce disaster risk by using a mobile SMS service
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Balt, Suvdantsetseg, author; Oba, Akihiro, author; Wanglin, Yan, author; Myagmarsuren, Altanbagana, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Herders in Mongolia are directly affected by climate change impact more than urban residents. This research project is developing an early warning system to prevent disaster risk by using mobile SMS services based on the partnership between a scientific research group, local policy makers, industrial technology developers and support of pastoral communities. The mobile message based forecasting system has included common weather information, forage information and other local requested information and been delivered in current time since August 2013 in a case study in Biger soum of Gobi-Altai province, Mongolia. After the system had been implemented 98% of participants agreed they had improved knowledge about adaptation to dzuds, understood the importance of information access, found it was manageable for their daily job and believed it would help reduce impacts of climate disasters.
Open Access
Earlywood, latewood, and adjusted latewood correlations to precipitation: a test case from the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Wolf, J. Marshall, author; Venable, Niah B. H., author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
The Khangai Mountains of central Mongolia provide important ecosystem services to the surrounding region as the headwaters for a number of river systems and critical pasture for the animal herds of nomadic pastoralists. The mountains also provide a long-term record of regional moisture variability preserved within the tree-rings of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) forests. Ring width measurements are commonly used to statistically reconstruct the hydroclimatology of a region based on the correlation of ring widths to precipitation and/or streamflow. Tree cores were collected, cross-dated, and the ring widths were measured from a site near Jargalant bagh in northern Bayankhongor aimag. Seasonal precipitation totals for the period from 1962 to 2012 were compiled from several meteorological stations surrounding the site. These historical precipitation values were compared to indices of total (TW), earlywood (EW), and latewood (LW) ring widths generated from a series of 16 cores. Nearly 70% of the annual precipitation in the Khangai region falls during the summer season (June, July, August), resulting in stronger correlations of ring widths (TW, EW and LW) to the previous year's summer precipitation than to the current year's spring or previous year's fall precipitation. The dependence of LW widths on antecedent EW ring widths masks any correlation to spring and fall precipitation. This dependence was removed using linear regression, resulting in the discovery of a negative relationship between the adjusted latewood (LWa) ring widths and precipitation in both spring of the current year and fall of the previous year. This indicates that LWa captures a different climate signal not detectable when working with the original LW, EW or TW measurements. Correlations of EW with (previous year's) summer precipitation were similar in value to correlations of TW with (previous year's) summer precipitation, suggesting that additional measurements of ring width may not be needed for use in reconstructing long-term summer precipitation variability. However, LWa and the associated measurements required for its calculation may be potentially useful for reconstructing spring and fall precipitation patterns in summer precipitation-dominated hydroclimate systems.
Open Access
Evaluating the impact of climate change based on herders' observations and comparing it with hydro-climatic and remote sensing data
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Jigjsuren, Odgarav, author; Baival, Batkhishig, author; Nayanaa, Kherlentuul, author; Jargalsaikhan, Azjargal, author; Dash, Khurelbaatar, author; Badamkhand, Bayarmaa, author; Bud, Amarzaya, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Studying the impact of recent years' climate change on Mongolian rangeland livestock husbandry and on pastoral herders' livelihoods, based on herders' observations and their experience, is an approach that is of considerable interest to many scientists. Our research identifies changes in natural conditions and climate, as well as the changes in rangeland conditions, as observed by herders, and compares them against weather stations' multi-year observations and remote sensing data. Our research region of Khanbogd, Manlai and Bayan-Ovoo soums of Umnugobi aimag has been, in the recent years, experiencing a rapid development of the mining industry and human population growth. According to local herders, current rangeland quality greatly decreased compared to the period before the year 2000, while the area of barren land, sand movement and soil erosion increased. Herders also said that the amount of rainfall diminished and the rainy season's duration shortened, short high intensity rains grew in number, and it became extremely hot in summer. Soum weather station records of air temperature, precipitation and evaporation confirmed herders' observations, and were consistent with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or the results of observations of rangeland vegetation phenology. To develop local adaptive capacity in the face of changing social-ecological systems it is important to use and integrate multiple sources of information that are essential for making policy implementation mechanisms and measures more locally appropriate and relevant.
Open Access
Evolution of common resource tenure and governing: evidence from pastureland in Mongolia Plateau
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Zhang, Yaoqi, author; Amarjargal, Amartuvshin, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Land tenure is to define who hold the land as well as the relationship between tenant and the lord. Most fundamentally tenure and changing tenure is capturing the value of the resource. The nature of the resource and changing relative scarcity are essential to induce or lead evolution of land tenure. Pasture resources have been held in open access and communal tenure for much of the long history on Mongolia Plateau because of the abundant resource with low population density. Historically pasture tenure in this region has been evolving from open and semi-open access to communal tenure (control) to more private ownership, although other forces like political system can only cause temporary departure from the general patterns. Presently the variety of tenure arrangements largely reflects the scarcity of the pastoral resources: Mongolia is still primarily adopting semi-open access with community governing although state is viewed as sole ownership, while Inner Mongolia is more directing privatization of at least the use rights.
Open Access
How does local mining impact on rural immigration: case of Mongolia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Amarjargal, Amartuvshin, author; Zhang, Yaoqi, author; Chen, Jiquan, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
After 70 years of communist regime, Mongolia chose a radical transition for democracy and a market economy in 1990. Since the 2000s, the Mongolian government has been promoting the mining industry to increase its foreign exchanges. The mining sector may offer local job opportunities and revenues, but might also cause loss and degradation of pasture land the local people depend on. An empirical study is conducted to investigate whether the immigration of rural people from a mining area is different from that of a non-mining area using a probit model based on a 2013 workforce survey of Mongolia. The result shows that mining soums receive fewer outsiders than the non-mining soums, suggesting local mining activities exert limited economic linkage in local community for a case of Mongolia.
Open Access
How unusual was the 21st century drought in Mongolia?: placing recent extremes in an 1100-year context
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Hessl, Amy E., author; Pederson, Neil, author; Byambasuran, Oyunsanaa, author; Anchukaitis, Kevin, author; Leland, Caroline, author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Understanding the connections between climate, ecosystems, and society during historical and modern climate transitions requires annual resolution records with high fidelity climate signals. In the 21st century, Mongolia experienced a rapid transition away from pastoralism as many families lost their herds during a drought and severe winter conditions (dzuds). Though the drivers of this transition were likely multi-factorial, many blamed market forces and overgrazing by herders. Because Mongolia's climate is highly variable, it is difficult to place recent climatic extremes and associated social change in context without long records of climatic variability. Here we ask: how extreme was the 21st century drought in the last 1100 years? We developed a 1100 year long tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season drought, derived from live and dead Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees growing on a Holocene lava flow in north central Mongolia. Trees growing on the lava today are stunted and widely spaced, occurring on microsites with little to no soil development. These trees are water-stressed and their radial growth is correlated with both soil water availability (scPDSI) and grassland productivity (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)). Our reconstruction, calibrated and validated on instrumental June-August scPDSI (1959-2009) account for >57% of the variability in the regional scPDSI when >70% of the annual rainfall occurs. Our tree-ring data combined with meteorological data suggests that the early 21st century drought was the hottest and one of the most severe droughts in the last 1100 years. These results are consistent with model projections of warming in Inner Asia where rising temperatures will contribute to increased water stress, independent of changes in rainfall. Future warming may overwhelm increases in precipitation leading to similar high temperature droughts, with potentially severe environmental and social consequences for modern Mongolia. Long records of past climate variability can help us understand the relative importance of climate versus land management in catalyzing social change and help prepare societies for the full range of future climatic extremes.
Open Access
Implementation of green development policy based on vulnerability assessment: Khovd aimag's case study
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Altanbagana, M., author; Suvdantsetseg, B., author; Chuluun, T., author; Nominbolor, Kh., author; Kherlenbayar, B., author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
In 2014 the Mongolian parliament approved the Green Development Policy. Out of 21 aimags, Khovd, Arkhangai, Uvurkhangai, Khentii and Bulgan aimags set an objective of prioritizing green development on their local level. This paper is based on the project "Conducting environmental and social vulnerability research of soums in five aimags leading in green development and developing strategy recommendation" and it is written using Khovd aimag as a case study. Here, in Khovd aimag's 17 soums, we evaluated eight variables including drought-dzud index, vegetation index, preventable livestock loss, prepared hay and fodder, pasture use index, degree of desertification, land degradation and surface water loss, allowing us to make an integrated assessment of ecological vulnerability. According to our analysis, the Gobi desert steppe region was defined as most vulnerable among environmental zones, and out of a total of 17 soums Altai, Uyench, Zereg, Chandmani and Duut soums were defined as most vulnerable, followed by Must, Darvi, Munkhhairkhan, Mankhan and Myangad soums. There is a need to give top priority to the planning and implementation of green policy in these ecologically more vulnerable soums by increasing their "green" budget. This will allow them to develop their capacity to adapt to climate change, decrease their vulnerability, to conduct optimal management of pasture use and have targeted preparation of hay and fodder.
Open Access
Integrating herder observations, meteorological data and remote sensing to understand climate change patterns and impacts across an eco-climatic gradient in Mongolia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Fernandez-Gimenez, M. E., author; Angerer, J. P., author; Allegretti, A. M., author; Fassnacht, S. R., author; Byamba, A., author; Chantsallkham, J., author; Reid, R., author; Venable, N. B. H., author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Mongolia has one of the strongest climate warming signals on Earth, and over 40% of the human population depends directly or indirectly on pastoral livestock production for their livelihoods. Thus, climate-driven changes in rangeland production will likely have a major effect on pastoral livelihoods. We examined patterns of climate change and rangeland production over 20 years in three ecological zones based on meteorological records, remote sensing and herder observations. We found the strongest trends in both instrument records and herder observations in the steppe zone, where summers are getting hotter and drier, winters colder, and rangeland production is declining. Instrument records and herder observations were most consistently aligned for total annual rainfall, and consensus among herders was greatest for changes in rainfall and production and lowest for temperature changes. We found more differences in herder observations between neighboring soums within the same ecozone than expected, suggesting the need for more fine-scale instrument observations to detect fine-scale patterns of change that herders observe.
Open Access
Is overgrazing a pervasive problem across Mongolia? An examination of livestock forage demand and forage availability from 2000 to 2014
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015-06) Gao, W., author; Angerer, J. P., author; Fernandez-Gimenez, M. E., author; Reid, R. S., author; Nutag Action and Research Institute, publisher
Pastoral livestock production is considered a pillar of the Mongolian economy. Since the early 1990's, Mongolia has transitioned to a market economy, and livestock numbers have trended upward. Recent remote sensing studies have indicated widespread overgrazing; however, to date, no studies have examined grazing pressure on a national scale to assess the pervasiveness of overgrazing. We conducted a spatial and temporal analysis of grazing pressure by analyzing the relationship between livestock forage availability and forage demand across soums during 2000 to 2014. To estimate livestock forage demand (kg/ha/yr), we converted soum livestock densities to sheep forage units and calculated forage intake on an area basis. Forage availability was estimated using a regression relationship between herbaceous biomass and 250-m resolution MODIS NDVI (r2 = 0.70). The regression was applied to yearly maximum NDVI images to create surfaces of available forage (kg/ha/yr). Percent use (PU) of forage, which is the ratio of forage demand to forage available, was used as an indicator of grazing pressure. 50% use is generally recommended on rangelands for promoting forage regrowth and soil protection. Thirteen percent of the rangeland across Mongolia had PU that exceeded 50% during the entire time series, while 37% had 10 or more years with >50% use. Grazing pressure was higher in the central and western aimags, and lowest in the eastern aimags. Dzuds (winter disasters) in 1999-2002 and 2010 resulted in 35% and 22% reductions in livestock numbers nationwide. Grazing pressure exceeded 50% in over half of the country prior to and during dzuds due to the effect of summer drought on forage availability and high animal numbers. Grazing pressure was lowest after dzuds due to lower livestock numbers and forage response to higher rainfall. Our results indicate that heavy stocking (>50 PU) appears to be pervasive in about 32% of the country and consistent overgrazing (>=10 years with PU>=70) occurs on approximately 11% of the land area. During individual years, land areas having overgrazing are variable due to extreme climate events and linear increases in livestock numbers, regardless of forage availability, during periods between dzuds. The spatially explicit and temporal nature of these results will aid in disentangling effects of changing climate and management, and assessing the resilience of these rangeland systems in Mongolia.

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