Mountain Scholar :: Browsing by Author "Shields, Martin, committee member"

Browsing by Author "Shields, Martin, committee member"

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Open Access
Determinants of producer resiliency: investigating the probability that agricultural producers exit the industry in the face of drought
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2013) Nelson, Ron, author; Goemans, Christopher, advisor; Pritchett, James, advisor; Shields, Martin, committee member
For the last two years agricultural producers in Colorado have been faced with severe drought conditions resulting in significant economic losses. With a changing climate, likely leading to an increased probability of extreme and recurring droughts, it is becoming an ever more important policy concern to determine the effect that drought has on the resiliency of farmers and ranchers. To date, research on farmer resiliency in the developed countries has primarily been theoretical; the majority of empirical work focused on producers in developing countries. This paper analyzes survey data collected from 2012 to investigate which factors impact farmer and rancher drought resiliency within Colorado. Specifically, we are interested in determining if, and how, continued drought impacts the likelihood that farmers and ranchers will leave the industry. Results highlight the relative importance that a producer's overall wealth and the region where their enterprise operates.
Open Access
Economic impact of feral swine transmitting foot-and-mouth disease to livestock in Kansas
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2010) Cozzens, Tyler William, author; Pendell, Dustin L., advisor; Pritchett, James, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member
In the United States, concern has arisen regarding the potential introduction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a foreign animal disease, and its subsequent spread by feral swine populations into domestic livestock. Feral swine are ideal candidates to potentially spread FMD, because they are free ranging with sizeable home ranges, frequently contact domestic livestock, have high fecundity and populations are expanding geographically throughout the United States. Feral swine surveillance is becoming a solution to safeguard and mitigate the potential for feral swine to transmit FMD to domestic livestock (e.g., cattle, pigs, and sheep). The potentially devastating economic impacts were evidenced by the economic impact of FMD in the UK and Taiwan (FAO, 2009; Yang et al., 1999). It has been estimated that if FMD were to enter the U.S. the economic losses would be $14 billion (Paarlberg et al., 2002). Such large potential losses are an example of the important economic contribution that livestock production makes to the larger U.S. economy. The objective of this research is to analyze the farm level impacts of alternate surveillance systems in feral swine in the event of a FMD outbreak in Kansas. Specifically, a disease spread model is used to model and evaluate the spread of FMD in Kansas. Output from the disease spread model is incorporated into a partial equilibrium model to determine the changes in prices. The change in prices for grains and livestock are then used to evaluate the farm level impacts in Kansas using whole farm budgets. Results obtained from the disease spread model indicate that under no surveillance the largest amount of animals are destroyed, 2,599,419, with a duration of 193 days. Under twice per month surveillance, 2,555,768 animals are destroyed and the outbreak lasts 189 days. Once per week surveillance shows that 2,585,666 animals are destroyed and the duration lasts 192 days. The NAADSM results for Kansas show that the states livestock industry could potentially face large livestock losses from feral swine transmitting FMD. The impacts to the average farms in Kansas show that producers with a large amount of livestock, in particular swine, see the biggest percentage changes in net income levels. This would be expected as pig and hog prices decrease once the FMD outbreak occurs and return to base levels in quarter four showing that there is a loss in swine prices from a FMD outbreak. Cattle prices initially decrease once the FMD outbreak occurs but then increase above base levels showing that average farms have the potential to regain lost revenues. The whole farm income results indicate that a producer not in the quarantine zone has the potential to capitalize on increasing livestock prices once the trade restrictions are lifted after quarter three.
Open Access
Essays on Bitcoin mining and renewable energy: exploring sustainability and profitability
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2023) Hutabarat, Simon Poltak Hamonangan, author; Iverson, Terrence, advisor; Fremstad, Anders, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Burkhardt, Jesse, committee member
This Ph.D. dissertation comprises three interlinked studies exploring the intersection of renewable energy economics and cryptocurrency mining, focusing on Bitcoin. Using data from the California Independent Service Operator (CAISO) and a case study from East Indonesia, this research aims to inform energy and financial policies for a sustainable future. The first chapter, "Harnessing Renewable Energy for Cryptocurrency Mining: An Analysis of Locational Marginal Prices in California," looks into the potential of Bitcoin mining to utilize the surplus renewable energy produced during daylight hours when demand is relatively low. It considers whether the Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) are systematically lower in areas rich in renewable energy resources, presenting an opportunity for strategic Bitcoin mining operations. The second chapter, "Assessing the Impact of Bitcoin Prices on Optimal Mining Hours: Implications for Renewable Energy Development," explores the profitability dynamics of Bitcoin mining. The study discusses the influence of Bitcoin prices and electricity costs on mining operations' profitability, including the ideal hours of operation. The findings suggest that for Bitcoin to be "green" and reduce carbon emissions, the Bitcoin price must be significantly lower than historical averages. The final chapter, "Exploring the Effects of Production Tax Credits on Renewable Energy Development: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach in East Indonesia," evaluates the potential impact of production tax credits (PTCs) on Indonesia's renewable energy industry. This study provides a quantitative assessment of the economic implications of a PTC, contributing to the ongoing debate on incentivizing renewable energy development. Together, these chapters offer insights into the potential of cryptocurrency mining to harness renewable energy, the factors affecting the profitability of Bitcoin mining, and the impact of tax incentives on renewable energy development. These findings could guide policymakers and stakeholders in making informed decisions for a sustainable and profitable future.
Open Access
Essays on sustainable development: renewable energy, regional growth, environment, and welfare
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2021) Jeon, Hwayoung, author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Shields, Martin, committee member; Pena, Anita, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee member
Given the growing concerns about the consequences of climate change, development of renewable energy has attracted significant attention as a creditable alternative to fossil fuels. As a result, renewable energy has experienced significant growth in the U.S. as receiving government subsidies and support in the past decades. In order to confirm the efficiency and effectiveness of renewable support policies, this dissertation explores the role of renewable energy on regional economic growth, environmental quality, and residential electricity price in the U.S. Chapter 1 examines the effects of electricity generation from both types of energy sources on sustainable state economic growth. For the analysis, I extend the theoretical framework which incorporating the environmental externalities from energy use. Based on the theoretical model, I use the panel data set for 47 U.S. states from 1999 to 2017 by employing the two-step Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) model. The results show that renewable energy generation has a positive impact on state economic growth whereas non-renewable energy generation hampers economic growth. Furthermore, this paper finds that the effects of renew- able energy generation on economic growth are different at a level of development stage: at an early stage, electricity generation from renewable energy resources hampers economic growth while at an advanced-stage, renewable energy helps to grow the economy. The results imply that the very low operating costs for renewable energy could offset the huge financial burden of high initial investment costs in the long run. Chapter 2 demonstrates the linkages between energy-related CO2 emissions, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption for the 48 U.S. states over the period 1997-2017 by employing panel fixed-effects and the Method of Moments Quantile Regression with fixed effects developed by Machado and Silva (2019). The results provide strong evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation, consistent with what is known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve from fixed-effect estimation. Furthermore, this paper confirms that renewable energy consumption, electricity prices, and primary energy prices have negative impact on emissions whereas Heating Degree Days have a positive impact on emissions. Moreover, the panel quantile regression models confirm that the effects of all explanatory variables on CO2 emissions are heterogeneous at different quantiles. The main purpose of Chapter 3 is investigating the effect of renewable energy generation on retail residential prices while confirming the policy influences from Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) on the prices by using a sample of 48 U.S. states during the period 2001-2018. The empirical results of the feasible generalized least squares, and the two-step GMM models provide evidence that renewable energy generation leads to a reduction in residential electricity prices. Also, the renewable support policy, RPS, tends to increase residential electricity prices. The results imply that implementation of RPS requires additional fixed costs in the short-run however, these costs would be offset by very low operating costs of renewable energy generation in the long-run.
Open Access
Essays on the relationship between compensation and productivity--a regional analysis
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Blake, Christopher D., author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Pena, Anita, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Kroll, Stephan, committee member
To view the abstract, please see the full text of the document.
Open Access
Food access issues on the suburban/urban interface: a case study for Longmont, CO
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Phillips, Megan Elizabeth, author; Thilmany, Dawn D. (Dawn Denise), advisor; Graff, Gregory D., committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member
Traditional literature on food deserts focuses on rural and urban areas, often blaming suburban areas for supermarket abandonment while simultaneously praising suburban areas for their rich food environments. This research shows that despite a dense concentration of supermarkets and other food outlets in the suburban area of Longmont, Colorado, a segment of residents still experience significant challenges in securing fruits and vegetables. However, unlike rural and urban food deserts, distance does not appear to be a significant barrier, perhaps because Longmont exhibits urban center characteristics and suburban characteristics given its proximity to metro-Denver. A community based food assessment complete with a survey, focus groups, and listening session was used to gather data, and then to explore characteristics that explained perceived barriers, ordered probit models and summary statistical analysis were utilized. Results from the models predict that alternative modes of transportation (not one's own car) and ethnicity increase perceived challenges in purchasing/receiving fruits and vegetables. Also, while some primary sources of fruits and vegetables (natural grocery stores, ethnic markets, and seasonal outlets) are associated with increased fruit and vegetable consumption, our expectations that education and income would influence consumption were not discovered. These findings challenge common notions about food deserts and food access issues, as well as their recommended solutions. Alternative solutions to addressing food access are discussed in the context of areas, such as Longmont, along the urban/suburban interface. Overall, it is suggested that food access issues in Longmont are not due to market failures, but instead due to mismatched infrastructure. Several policy proposals and projects are suggested.
Open Access
Heterogeneity in the price elasticity of demand for commercial water
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2018) Flyr, Matthew, author; Burkhardt, Jesse, advisor; Goemans, Chris, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member
The gap between projected future water demand and supply are increasing the importance of conservation policies. Commercial users are a major source of utility withdrawals, heightening the need for increased understanding of commercial responsiveness to utility policies. Despite an abundance of empirical studies on residential water demand, there are limited commercial sector studies exploring demand elasticity heterogeneity. In this paper, we estimate commercial water demand elasticity for firms served by a local utility, employing a novel instrumental variables approach. We then present evidence that firms respond to one period lagged average price rather than marginal price. Finally, we find notable differences in elasticity among different categories of businesses and among businesses of different consumption variance levels. The findings in this paper are particularly important as utility providers across the country consider how to cope with growing demand and limited water supply.
Open Access
Optimizing resilience decision-support for natural gas networks under uncertainty
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2019) Ameri, Mohammad Reza, author; van de Lindt, John W., advisor; Chen, Suren, committee member; Jia, Gaofeng, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member
Community resilience in the aftermath of a hazard requires the functionality of complex, interdependent infrastructure systems become operational in a timely manner to support social and economic institutions. In the context of risk management and community resilience, critical decisions should be made not only in the aftermath of a disaster in order to immediately respond to the destructive event and properly repair the damage, but preventive decisions should to be made in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of hazards prior to their occurrence. This involves significant uncertainty about the basic notion of the hazard itself, and usually involves mitigation strategies such as strengthening components or preparing required resources for post-event repairs. In essence, instances of risk management problems that encourage a framework for coupled decisions before and after events include modeling how to allocate resources before the disruptive event so as to maximize the efficiency for their distribution to repair in the aftermath of the event, and how to determine which network components require preventive investments in order to enhance their performance in case of an event. In this dissertation, a methodology is presented for optimal decision making for resilience assessment, seismic risk mitigation, and recovery of natural gas networks, taking into account their interdependency with some of the other systems within the community. In this regard, the natural gas and electric power networks of a virtual community were modeled with enough detail such that it enables assessment of natural gas network supply at the community level. The effect of the industrial makeup of a community on its natural gas recovery following an earthquake, as well as the effect of replacing conventional steel pipes with ductile HDPE pipelines as an effective mitigation strategy against seismic hazard are investigated. In addition, a multi objective optimization framework that integrates probabilistic seismic risk assessment of coupled infrastructure systems and evolutionary algorithms is proposed in order to determine cost-optimal decisions before and after a seismic event, with the objective of making the natural gas network recover more rapidly, and thus the community more resilient. Including bi-directional interdependencies between the natural gas and electric power network, strategic decisions are pursued regarding which distribution pipelines in the gas network should be retrofitted under budget constraints, with the objectives to minimizing the number of people without natural gas in the residential sector and business losses due to the lack of natural gas in non-residential sectors. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used in order to propagate uncertainties and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) is adopted in order to capture uncertainties in the seismic hazard with an approach to preserve spatial correlation. A non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) approach is utilized to solve the multi-objective optimization problem under study. The results prove the potential of the developed methodology to provide risk-informed decision support, while being able to deal with large-scale, interdependent complex infrastructure considering probabilistic seismic hazard scenarios.
Open Access
Production function estimations and policy implications
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Khreisat, Mohammad Abdallah, author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Mushinski, David, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Davies, Stephen, committee member
The main purpose of the dissertation is to provide the decision makers in local governments in Colorado with a information regarding the economic characteristics of industries and firms they need to attract to their regions to mitigate the inverse impacts of job loss, and local government revenue decreases during economic down turns. The dissertation estimates four different production functions classified in two groups; homogeneous functions, and non-homogeneous functions. The estimation is held at the industry level using firm level data for six major counties in Colorado. This is the first empirical study that explores the importance of land in the production process, in addition to the primary inputs of capital stock and labor. The study also determines the production function that best fits the data structure instead of other studies which assume in priori the type of production function. In addition, the study will explore the returns to scale and elasticity of substitutions for the three input variables (land, labor, and capital) at the industry and firm levels. Furthermore, the dissertation explores the convergence of total factor productivity within industry and among counties, and within county and among the different industries in the same county. The main findings of the study are: (i) local governments have to attract the industries or firms with low elasticity of substitutions between labor and capital from one side; and industries or firms with low complementarity between land and labor, and capital and land; (ii) land is an important input variable in the production process, especially in Denver County; (iii) local government has to attract firms with increasing returns to scale because of their positive impact on employment, economic growth, local government revenues, and competitiveness outside the county; (iv) local governments have to encourage firms with high k/l ratio accompanied with low elasticity of substitutions; and (v) the negative relation between total factor productivity and partial scale elasticity, leads to the conclusion that the industries or firms either substitute TFP with RTS or firms with high RTS delay applying advanced technology.
Open Access
School choice impacts within a local school district
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Chisesi, Lawrence J., author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Alves Pena, Anita, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Wallner, Barbara, committee member
In the mid 1990's, changes in Colorado state law and local school district policy resulted in the opening of magnet and charter schools within a school district in Northern Colorado. Parents now had multiple school choice options that were independent of school assignment based on residency. I use student level data to analyze school choice impacts within the district as they unfolded over time. I test first if there are student achievement gains that can be attributed to school choice. In theory, when parents can better match the needs of their children to the offerings at different schools, student achievement should increase. Using multilevel modeling I find little evidence that school choice yields achievement gains compared to residential based school choice, but do find that some schools that offered differentiated curriculums yielded gains. The negative impacts on student achievement attributed to low family income and from when students change schools explain much of the variation in test scores. I next examine how local public schools may compete for students once parents are given expanded school choice rights. Economic theory suggests that competition for students would force lower performing schools to improve or risk losing their students to higher achieving schools. I test to see if the choices that parents make to attend schools outside their neighborhoods are influenced by prior year academic achievement, the income and ethnic composition of a school and changes in the size of a local school's attendance zone. I find that shrinking attendance zones preceded students choicing into other schools, motivating schools to compete for students. Past performance matters as well, but so does the composition of the student body and how representative the student body is of the community that surrounds the school. Parents show preferences to associate with families with similar incomes and ethnic background. Finally, I study how school choice impacts housing decisions. If school choice breaks the link between residency and local schooling then house prices should reflect this change. Parents would be less willing to pay a premium to live near a higher performing school and should receive less of a discount to purchase a home near a lower performing school. Using prices paid by cohorts of home buyers that subsequently placed their children into district schools, I find support for the hypothesis that the house price-school quality link evaporates with school choice and that changes in housing valuations can be modeled as a function of the number of families choicing into and out of school attendance zones. Prices appear to be moving towards an equilibrium whereby local school quality and distance to the assigned school no longer contribute value to the price of a home.
Open Access
Spatial characteristics: improving model accuracy and providing regional research insights
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2024) Crofton, Kevin, author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Weiler, Stephan, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee member
The research presented in this dissertation began with an investigation of water transfers from rural Colorado to a growing urban region and how this would affect the rural economy. Chapter 1 focuses on the growing concern of water scarcity in the arid western region of the US. In this part of the country, it is widely known that water is limited, and as populations continue to increase, so will the demand for water, which is already in short supply. A multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (MRCGE) model using spatially detailed data was built to study the impact of urban growth on a rural community and is presented in Chapter 1. The construction of the MRCGE model led to consideration of how aggregation shapes output. This evolved into a comparison of a MRCGE model that utilized spatial details that explained the differences between a rural and urban economies with a single region CGE model that aggregated these regional differences. Chapter 2 discusses identical simulations in either model, demonstrates insights gained from refining the spatial details into a MRCGE model, and identifies specific elements lost when using a broader aggregated description blending different regions together. Different spatial qualities between locations are critical in expanding the understanding of skier behavior. Chapter 3 provides a skier behavior model of the US, which confirms the pull effect of destination snowfall shown in regional models of the ski industry. Additionally, this research demonstrates that skier origin weather also influences skier visitation by shifting the subjective interest of traveling to another region. The result of this model provides evidence of push and pull weather variables for a winter ski destination, filling a gap generally left by travel literature that often focuses on warm weather destinations. Chapter 1 describes a three-region CGE model that utilizes the unique spatial characteristics of urban, rural, and interface regions; the latter includes a blend of features of both the rural and urban regions. Using explicitly defined regions provides an enhanced analysis of each community's Ag and non-Ag sectors, while also describing the impact on households. This model connects the three regions via a water market, which allows for endogenous transfers of water to occur due to urban population growth. The model adds an interregional intermediate input market, allowing urban growth to demand greater domestic supply from the rural and interface industries. The interregional intermediate input market, which captures another link between the urban region and the rural region, is a new addition to the literature. These key modeling features refine the approach to investigate urban growth's influence on a rural economy by modeling multiple interregional markets and identifying regional specific characteristics. Chapter 1 allows for a more complete understanding of the dynamics between urban growth, water transfer from the rural region, and the resulting influence on the rural economy. Chapter 1 compares a model, which includes the water market and the intermediate input market, to two restricted models, either only trade water or only trade intermediate inputs, between regions to assess the impact these markets have on the rural economy. This comparison demonstrates that both markets can increase the cost of production due to greater urban demand, but when either is restricted, rural economies can expand in respond to urban growth. When water cannot be traded between regions factor prices become relatively cheaper in the rural region because there is not the greater urban demand causing higher water prices. With cheaper factors the rural economy can expand supply to meet the growing urban demand for intermediate inputs. When the water market is the only interregional market, the rural region transfers water (primarily from the agricultural sector resulting in Ag output decline), to the urban region. The rural agricultural sector subsequently reduces their demand for land and labor making it available to the rural non-Ag sector, thus expanding their output with these relatively cheaper factors. The greater output of the non-Ag sector offsets the Ag decline in output, resulting in a total domestic supply increase. The rural economy increases output in each alternative model due to different cross-regional effects but experiences a decline in output when all interregional markets are modeled. The inclusion of both markets generates higher cost of production that cannot be offset by substitution between sectors or by the greater urban demand for intermediate inputs. Past research has focused on how the rural region adjusts to water transfers with varied conclusions. For example, Berck et al. (1991) describes rural agriculture shifting to less water intensive production methods and benefitting from the combined payment for their water and the adjusted domestic supply. Alternatively, Seung et al. (2000) describes a decline in rural domestic supply in response to water transfers, relying on a Leontief factor substitution specification. Both research conclusions depended on the elasticity of factor substitution. The model used in Chapter 1 applies a constant elasticity of substitution that is similar to Berck et al. (1991) but describes a decline in rural domestic supply. This different economic outcome is due to the dynamics of markets that connect the multiple regions, rather than only modeling the rural region in isolation. The Watson and Davies (2009) model includes a water market that endogenously transfers water between sectors due to urban population growth. In their model, water is a factor input for all sectors of the economy, and as urban population expands, it shifts the demand for water to non-agricultural outputs, resulting in a higher water price. The higher price of water forces the agricultural sector to shift to less water intensive production methods resulting in less output. However, the large urban population demands greater agricultural output offsetting negative supply shift. One weakness of this model is that households and industries are not regionally identified, making it unclear how rural and urban regional economic outcomes differ. The model in Chapter 1 applies a similar endogenous water market driven by urban growth but concludes that rural domestic supply and household income both decline due to regional price variations derived from the multiregional approach. Chapter 2 compares a spatial disaggregated MRCGE model to a single region model that uses the same data to expose the importance of spatial aggregation in CGE modeling. This analysis isolates the influence of how aggregation shapes output, revealing the differences between the two models with identical simulations. The performance of the two models highlights that spatial data must be correctly leveraged by a disaggregated structure to explain unique regional output. This comparison demonstrates that qualities in the analysis are lost when CGE models use larger aggregated regions rather than a spatially sensitive MRCGE approach, which illustrates the importance of modeling spatial details. The water model from Chapter 1 is transformed into a single region model and compared to the original specification. The same data is used in each model, leaving only the regional specification as the structural difference between them. The data used in this model is based on PUMS data that describe community level labor and household characteristics, refining the disaggregated descriptions of regional economies. Additionally, county assessor's data provide parcel level descriptions of land and building values, thus improving the descriptions of residential and business in the model. Each of these data sets refine spatial details, which enhance the multiregional specification. When these details are aggregated into a single region, many of the county level insights are obscured. For example, rural labor markets have greater wage gains compared to similar labor groups in different regions in response to a total factor productivity increase. This outcome is unique to the rural region, and under the aggregated single region model, this labor group does not experience an increase in wages. The model comparison demonstrates how spatial characteristics represented by the MRCGE structure can shape output by preserving spatial characteristics, which determine unique model behaviors that enhance economic analysis. The literature has recognized the benefits of the MRCGE specification. However, the justification for the MRCGE improvements over past aggregated approaches is due to adjusting the older aggregated structure with spatially descriptive data and revealing new outputs. The problem with this approach is that the new model has both a change in structure from a single region to a multi-region, and it includes additional spatial descriptive data. This method cannot determine whether improved spatial data or the spatial disaggregation is responsible for the improvement. To address this, the model presented in Chapter 2 aggregates a disaggregated model so that the spatial data values are the same but have been transformed from spatial to aspatial. This approach allows the spatial structure to be analyzed without the influence of additional data, revealing how this uniquely impacts and shapes the output. Chapter 3 describes how weather motivates skiers to travel from one region to another in the US. It is widely known that skiing benefits from winter conditions and that skiers are willing to travel to other locations to pursue better quality ski experiences. This model considers seasonal weather variations of destination ski areas and the origin weather variables that could impact their decision-making process. Destination and origin weather variables are significant determinants of skier visits, as confirmed by the research. Snow accumulation at a destination can pull greater visits, and colder weather at the origin makes ski trips more appealing. Chapter 3 fits within the broad literature on travel that has focused on weather's influences on travel decisions. The travel literature describes the desirable weather variables that pull travelers towards those destinations. Additionally, this literature provides push variables where the weather of a traveler's origin changes their subjective demand for leaving their home for vacation. The push and pull effects of destination and origin weather have been applied extensively to warm weather destinations, but there are many fewer applications for the winter season and cold-weather destinations. This model tests the push and pull effect for ski areas in the US and confirms that colder, snowy destination weather pulls a greater number of skier visits and that colder weather at a skier origin further pushes them to ski in any region. The gap in the travel literature is also shared by the ski industry studies that have exclusively focused on how destination temperature and snowfall contribute to skier attendance. The ski industry research has not examined how the skier's origin influences attendance. This model addresses the smaller scope of the ski industry research that focuses on one ski area instead of skier behavior across the whole country. Across each of the chapters in this dissertation, spatial details motivate unique economic activity. From western water markets to the differences between rural and urban labor markets to the impact of destination snowfall on skier visits, the inclusion of spatial characteristics improves model analysis and provides key insights into regional research. The diverse application in the following chapters provides strong evidence of the importance of spatial characteristics, highlighting how they shape individual behavior and drive unique research and economic outcomes.
Open Access
The economic value of whitewater sports in the Cache la Poudre Canyon, Colorado
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) McTernan, James A., author; Loomis, John B., advisor; Goemans, Christopher G., committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member
This thesis estimates the non-market benefits associated with non-commercial Whitewater Sports in the Poudre Canyon of the Cache la Poudre River. We used a Contingent Valuation Model (CVM) and a Travel Cost Model (TCM) to estimate benefits to all non-commercial users at two different river locations. Using CVM, we found the consumer surplus estimates to be between $55.36 and $93.36 per trip, depending on the model specification. This equates to a per season consumer surplus of between $596,283 and $1,005,581 for a 30 day season and between $1,192,620 and $1,917,894 for a 60 day season. For the TCM, consumer surplus was estimated at either $88.01 or $129.41 depending on the specification. This equates to ranges of per season consumer surplus of $947,956 and $1,393,875 respectively for a 30 day season and $1,895,999 and $2,787,880 respectively for a 60 day season.
Open Access
The presidents' perspective of the rural community colleges' role in economic development: a grounded theory approach
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Bigelow, Susan L., author; Kaminski, Karen, advisor; Davies, Timothy, advisor; Venneberg, Donald, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member
Some colleges have embraced an economic development role in order to benefit the economy in the community and the region both directly and indirectly. In order for rural communities to benefit from the community college in a significant way, the college leadership must adopt an economic development agenda. The dual processes of developing a commitment to rural communities and learning economic development skills as a college president or in preparation to serve as a college president are not well studied and represent a gap in the literature. The purpose of this qualitative study was to construct a substantive theory with a core category and related categories that provides an explanation for how presidents of tribal colleges and community colleges in rural areas come to understand economic development and how they act on that understanding. The general research question was "what is going on here" with presidents at the intersection of tribal and community colleges and their rural communities in the area of economic development. The single situation grounded theory was constructed from interviews with eight presidents and referrals from two experts. The presidents led tribal and community colleges that have been members of the Rural Community College Alliance, were "associates" or "tribal" colleges, and were located in communities of less than 50,000. RCCA member colleges considered for this study were small and medium enrollment community colleges in rural serving areas and tribal colleges located in rural areas. The theory's core category was embracing the economic development role which means adopting as a guiding principle doing what was required to make a lasting and measurable impact on the community and its economy. Critical to the contextual framework categories was the pronounced rural bias, affinity for tribal or community colleges, and personal humility of the presidents. The causal categories of motivated by personal values, understanding the economic development role, and motivated by the environment worked together in a process and led to embracing the economic development role. After embracing this role, the presidents acknowledged taking economic development actions or taking them on more robustly. Six high level groups of economic development actions led by these presidents were: developing leaders and leadership capacity; thinking and acting regionally; coordinating closely with industry in workforce development; being present throughout the service area; welcoming the community to the college facilities; and promoting healthy communities. It is possible this study will add to the field of leadership training for community college leaders and a better understanding of leadership in a rural setting. This theory may be useful to presidents who are asked to take on an economic development role, those who wish to hire a president who embraces this role, and professional associations that hope to mentor current and future presidents for tribal and community colleges in rural areas.
Open Access
The steps of kings: terraced landscapes in the Lake Pátzcuaro Basin, Michoacán, México
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2010) Pezzutti, Florencia Lorena, author; Pendell, Dustin L., advisor; Pritchett, James, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member
This thesis uses a landscape approach incorporating landesque capital as statecraft to relate agricultural intensification and state formation theories using data collected from the former island of Apúpato, in the Lake Pátzcuaro Basin, Michoacán, México. Apúpato is located in the geo-political core of the Purépecha Empire, south of Tzintzuntzan, the empire's capital. Apúpato was an important Purépecha island belonging to the Canzonci [Purépecha emperor] and was used as a ritual center, an imperial treasury, and for feasts and expeditions (RM 2008: page) This thesis incorporates recent archaeological investigation, including full coverage settlement pattern survey, geoarchaeology, and remote sensing/ARCGIS, which documented patterns of settlements, confirmed the presence of terraces, and the general landscape development of the former island. This thesis documents and analyzes, for the first time, agricultural terraces in the former island of Apúpato. The most common form of agricultural intensification is terrace agriculture (Donkin 1979) which is linked to the development of social complexity in middle range societies, and states and empires (Fisher et al. 2003). For Mesoamerica, terraces are a fundamental characteristic of ancient social complexity, and continued to be used post-Conquest (A.D. 1520). In the Lake Pátzcuaro basin, agricultural intensification was an important component of state formation in the lake Pátzcuaro basin (Pollard 1993) exemplified by raised field systems and by the construction of terraces to repair Classic period land degradation (A.D 300-800) and to improve productivity of seed crops (Fisher et al 2003; Fisher 2005). This thesis examines the implications of agricultural intensification and state formation in Mesoamerica, using terrace data collected from the former island of Apúpato. The terrace system documented on Apúpato represents a refugia for the Purépecha built environment in the Lake Pátzcuaro Basin, since the Apúpato island setting remained an island for hundreds of years, helping keep Apúpato protected and isolated from the consequences of the European conquest. The terraces documented in the former island of Apúpato are analyzed in terms of their form, function, and construction development for the first time in the Lake Pátzcuaro Basin.
Open Access
The value of water in agriculture: a typology of water valuation methods and estimate of economic activity from water in agriculture and associated mutual uses in the Arkansas River Basin, Colorado
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2013) Salcone, Jake, author; Pritchett, James, advisor; Goemans, Christopher, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member
The waterstressed Arkansas River Basin is experiencing a greater frequency of water transfers from agriculture to municipal and industrial uses. Removing water from agriculture may harm rural communities, impact ecosystems, and change recreation opportunities. In order to better understand the implications of transfers, the economic activity created by these water uses must be calculated. Previous water valuation efforts have neither included all stakeholder interests, nor quantified externalities of water allocation scenarios and thus do not accurately estimate the potential impact of transfers. This paper evaluates methods for calculating the value of water in agriculture, the value of water to recreational users, the economic spillovers from agriculture and recreation, and the value of environmental flows. Direct, indirect and induced economic activity from agriculture is estimated using IMPLAN; economic activity from recreation related to agricultural water is estimated using benefit transfer and IMPLAN. Implications to ecosystem benefits are described quantitatively. Impacts to economic activity in the region from potential reductions in irrigated acreage are considered, including hypothetical impacts from reduced water recreation. The results show that the vast majority of agriculture, and thus economic activity from agriculture, depends upon irrigation water. That said, irrigated crop farming makes up just 1% of employment and economic activity in the Arkansas Basin. However, the great quantities of water that are allocated to agriculture (almost 90% of all water withdrawn from basin water ways) offer recreation opportunities that generate employment and economic activity and support agro-ecosystems that have economic and consumer surplus benefits.
Open Access
Three applications of regional CGE models
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Hannum, Christopher M., author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Shields, Martin, committee member; Pena, Anita, committee member; Villupuram, Sriram, committee member
This dissertation focuses on the development of the basic Colorado (CO) CGE model, a generalized multi-sector, multi-household dynamic, myopic, single region CGE model created for the State of Colorado in GAMS MPSGE. Three model variants are constructed and described, built in order to analyze specific policies in areas of the model for the same region with maximum detail while maintaining general model tractability. The first model variant, the Colorado Real Estate (CO-RE) model, adds significant detail to capital and property markets including one critical feature of such markets not generally found in CGE models - sluggish price and quantity adjustment. The second model variant, the Colorado Energy (CO-E) model adds significant detail to production and consumption of electricity. The third model variant, the Colorado Demography (CO-D) model, adds significant detail to the process of long-run, endogenous demographic change and the production of higher education. The three model variants are used to analyze the impacts on the Colorado economy of, respectively, a transition to alternative workplace strategies, Colorado energy and climate polices and the potential defunding of higher education in the state. This dissertation is an embodiment of and evidence for the greatest strength of the CGE modeling technique - such models are flexible and broadly applicable to nearly any economic issue or phenomenon. Simulation results from the CO-RE model suggest that the economic impacts of a transition to alternative workplace strategies would be modest in terms of macroeconomic aggregates, but positive. The transition results in a fall in investment as shrinking office capital stock outweighs increased investment into other property types. However, the productivity enhancement leads to increases in incomes, consumption and employment that offset the drop in investment. Increases in consumption and employment are small. Within the office property market, effects of such a transition would be dramatic with vacancy rates rising to 40% in and rents falling as much as 80%. A transition to AWS is expected to lead to falling property tax revenues for local governments as the size of the commercial property tax base shrinks. As specified in the CO-E model, given a set of plausible assumptions regarding levelized costs of generation over the lifetime of a project, costs associated with intermittency and future federal subsidies the Colorado renewable portfolio standard has a positive impact on economic aggregates in the state relative to a baseline scenario. The impact of the Clean Air - Clean Jobs Act which accelerates a transition towards natural gas is negative on macroeconomic aggregates. The economy of the State of Colorado is found to be substantially exposed to rising natural gas prices due to decreasing natural gas sector productivity. The RPS is not a job creator, but the RPS adds to consumption and incomes in all scenarios but that with extremely low natural gas prices. The RPS is found to serve as a hedge for the state against rising natural gas prices, and a hedge with positive net benefit in many scenarios. Defunding higher education reallocates money from higher education subsidies to production of government services. The defunding of higher education, by reducing production and consumption of higher education in the state, is found to reduce economic output and total real per capita consumption in the state though it does not always reduce employment in spite of the fact that the baseline scenario includes "excessive" production of higher education that causes the wage premium for college educated workers to fall. When total factor productivity is assumed to rise, the negative impact of defunding increases. Estimates for the real net per capita consumption impact of defunding are found to be sensitive to a variety of plausible parameter estimates for the responsiveness of higher education demand to tuition and the wage premium, though impacts of defunding remain negative.
Open Access
Three essays in regional growth, distribution, and resilience
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2019) Kacher, Nicholas J., author; Weiler, Stephan, advisor; Bernasek, Alexandra, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Thilmany, Dawn, committee member
This work delves into two significant but less understood topics in regional labor economics. The first contribution is to growing literature examining the effects of business dynamism on regional resilience. Significant attention has, understandably, been paid to understanding why the impact of and recovery from the 2008 recession has varied across regions. Chapters 1 and 2 extend to the question of regional resilience a hypothesis that gross rates of local establishment openings, or "churn," may affect local economic performance over a business cycle. In the US, higher-churn areas are found to experience faster average employment growth over the decade spanning the recession, but with more cyclical volatility. Churn is not positively correlated with median household income growth or poverty reduction at a county level. A novel cross-country analysis reveals that in the UK, local authorities with higher churn prior to the recession did weather the financial crisis slightly better, although data limitations restrict the direct comparability between the US and UK cases. Chapter 3 turns to the growth of self-employment in the US, motivated by two observations: first, that growth in the self-employment share has been regionally heterogeneous; and second, that theory suggests workers in wage-and-salary occupations exert limited agency over their working hours. This paper investigates whether average local working hours influence subsequent changes in the county self-employment share. I find a U-shaped relationship between working hours and self-employment growth: counties with working hours furthest from the mean experienced the fastest growth in local self-employment share, adding a new wrinkle to the running debate over whether the "gig economy" is driven by opportunity or necessity.
Open Access
Three essays on health and labor outcomes
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Breunig, Ian Michael, author; Mushinski, David W., advisor; Shields, Martin, committee member; Weiler, Stephan, committee member; Zahran, Sammy J., committee member
This dissertation is composed of three essays which examine the effects of health on labor market outcomes. Chapter 1 reviews the literature on health and the labor market. It also emphasizes the inherent endogeneity of health when included in models for labor market outcomes. It goes on to highlight the empirical methods most often used to accommodate that endogeneity. In chapter 2, I use 2000 to 2007 data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) to examine the role of health status in decisions to transition to self-employment. Much of the past literature has incorporated health status in models for self-employment in a perfunctory fashion. I account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogenous initial conditions using a discrete factor random effects model. Three hypotheses for the direct effect of health on the self-employment decision are put forth. The indirect effect that health may have in determining one's valuation of health insurance coverage is controlled for in the model. Regression results indicate that individuals who experience any sort of functioning limitation, or who report relatively poorer health, are more likely to transition to self-employment over wage-employment, holding all else constant. Although the magnitude of the impact of health status varies between two sub-groups of the population studied. Chapter 3 examines the extent to which a spouse's ill-health influences the labor supply decisions of the older men and women. Spouses' ill-health is likely to affect their partner's labor supply decision in off-setting ways. I control for the income effect due to the increase in the probability of an ill spouse to leave the labor force. Therefore, my estimates reflect the direct impact of a spouse's ill-health on the partner's labor supply decision through its effect on the partner's reservation wage. However, it is likely that spouses' earnings are endogenous in these models due to unobserved characteristics common to husbands and wives. I find that the estimated effect of a wife's ill health on their partner's labor supply decision is dependent on whether I instrument the spouse's earnings. I also find that the estimated effect of husbands' and wives' ill health on their partners' labor supply decision is dependent on the health measure used in the models.
Open Access
Two essays on regional labor markets for the Denver area
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Wang, Chiung-Hsia, author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Mushinski, David, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Weiler, Stephan, committee member; Kroll, Stephan, committee member
Borts and Stein (1964) and Mathur and Song (2000) presented a general theoretical framework regional growth model, which shows regional growth based on labor demand and supply simultaneously. However, most previous empirical work estimated only either the regional demand curve or regional supply curve due to limited data availability, and nearly all of these empirical works use a reduced form model. The first goal is to build a more inclusive data set, including cost of production, output, demographic data, and dynamic externality indices, so a complete structural regional labor market model can be estimated. The second goal is to use this dataset in two applied studies. The first applied study is the impact of building a new stadium in the Denver area, and the second is a dynamic externality study on regional growth in the Denver area. The results show building a stadium in the Denver area had a positive impact on employment on labor demand in the Construction and Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sectors and had a positive impact on labor supply in the Professional, Scientific and Technical, and Accommodation and Food Services sectors. These results differ from previous research. The next chapter examines the various diversity indices and econometric techniques that have been used in previous studies in determining the local economic growth for the Denver area. This study compares the dynamic externality results directly across different econometric specifications in order to shed light on the issues of possibly omitted variables bias, endogeneity, and simultaneous bias issues. In addition, comparing the various diversity indices could show a sensitivity of index choice which may affect policy makers' decisions regarding regional development policy. The results of this study indicate that the choice of diversity index does affect empirical results. Moreover, different econometric techniques provide mixed results for most diversity indices.
Open Access
Using a computable general equilibrium model to explore economic impacts of agglomeration economies on wages in northern Colorado
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Gongwe, Anne Grace, author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Fan, Chuen-mei, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Davies, Stephen, committee member
Agglomeration economies are forces that lead to concentration of workers and businesses in one location, and are also known as external economies of scale. This dissertation explores the economic impacts of agglomeration economies on nominal and real wages using a data intensive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The dissertation is divided into three essays. The first essay focuses on establishing the impacts of export-led expansions on nominal and real wages for two cities of different sizes and labor market characteristics in northern Colorado. Results of this essay show that when employment is expanded for each sector separately, nominal and real wages increases more in Loveland (a thinner labor market) than Fort Collins (a thicker labor market). A larger number of households are attracted to Fort Collins as opposed to Loveland and this leads to high supply of labor. Increased labor supply causes a downward pressure on wages in Fort Collins. These results suggest that "labor supply effects" outweigh "productivity effects" in the thicker labor market. The second essay analyzes the performance of nominal and real wages when two cities of different sizes and labor market characteristics are exposed to various levels of production externalities. The results demonstrate that when sector-specific export demand and production externalities is increased, the nominal and real wages increase more in Fort Collins than Loveland supporting previous studies findings that productivity increases with city size. The results also reflect that wages increases more with the level of production externalities. The results also show that different sectors are impacted differently with the same economic shock, making sector-wise analysis more appropriate than the aggregate analysis. The third essay has two major parts. The first part focuses on the economic impacts of consumption externalities on nominal and real wages. The results show that an increase in sector-specific export demand and level of migration elasticity increase nominal wages in all labor groups in all three productive sectors with the exception of labor group three in the retail sector in both cities. The second part of this essay focuses on the net economic impacts of production and consumption externalities wages in these two cities. The results show that nominal wages and real wages increase in all sectors for all labor groups except for the higher skilled workers in the retail case in Loveland. Results also show that, the nominal and real wage increase is less with the higher level of consumption externalities. These results suggest that when the level of consumption externalities is sufficiently higher than production externalities, real wages will decrease.