Browsing by Author "Manning, Dale, committee member"
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Item Open Access A bioeconomic and general equilibrium framework to address fishery management and invasive species(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Apriesnig, Jenny L., author; Goemans, Christopher, advisor; Warziniack, Travis, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Thilmany, Dawn, committee member; Johnson, Brett, committee memberFisheries management is a complex issue that involves the management of people, fish populations and habitat. There are many facets to fishery issues including ownership, regulation, and environmental change. I address all three of these facets in the following work. I develop a general equilibrium model that incorporates fish stock and present two applications of it. I evaluate the change of a fishery under a regulated open access regime to an individual transferrable quota system. I apply the model to the Lake Erie yellow perch fishery, and I account for the different allocations of the value provided by the fish stock, and the potential changes in efficiency. I find that the change to an individual transferrable quota system results in welfare improvements but only if the individual transferrable quota system induces improved catchability and efficiency in fishery effort choices. I also develop an integrated bioeconomic model with the general equilibrium framework to evaluate the joint responses of a regional economy and lake food web to an environmental shock. The model is unique in that there are feedbacks between the economy and food web. The bioeconomic model is used to evaluate a potential Lake Erie Asian carp invasion. There are two primary results from the analysis; the Asian carp invasion leads to welfare improvements, and when invasion impacts are estimated with only the ecological food web model, without the consideration of changes in human choice, the impacts to some fish populations are overestimated while others are underestimated. In both applications, I show that using a general equilibrium framework captures welfare impacts that would be missed by a partial equilibrium analysis.Item Open Access Accounting for well capacity in the economic decision making of groundwater users(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015) Collie, Samuel, author; Suter, Jordan, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Schneekloth, Joel, committee memberWater conflicts unfolding around the world present the need for accurate economic models of groundwater use which couple traditional producer theory with hydrological science. We present a static optimization problem of individual producer rents, given groundwater as a variable input to production. In a break with previous literature, the model allows for the possibility of binding constraints on well capacity, which occur due to the finite lateral speed at which water moves underground. The theoretical model predicts that binding well yield constraints imply producers extract as much water as possible to maximize profit. Therefore, if producers are constrained, regions with more available water should consume more of it. We test this hypothesis empirically by modelling the effect of well yields on crop cover and water usage data. Our empirical results find that areas with higher than average well capacities tend to plant a more water intensive mix of crops, and use more groundwater. This straightforward result comes in contrast to previous economic models of groundwater use, which have assumed an interior solution to the irrigators’ profit maximization problem. Well capacity also affects how farmers respond to seasonal weather variation. Farms with high well capacity react sharply to seasonal precipitation, whereas low capacity farms show less adjustment. This research provides important inroads to understanding what drives irrigators’ behavior on the High Plains; a crucial step towards conserving this resource.Item Open Access An option value analysis of hydraulic fracturing(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Hess, Joshua H., author; Iverson, Terrence, advisor; Cutler, Harvey, committee member; Weiler, Stephan, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee memberMany uncertain public policy decisions with sunk costs can be optimally timed leading policymakers to delay implementing a policy despite positive expected net present value. One salient example of this is hydraulic fracturing (fracking), a recently developed oil and gas extraction technology, that has increased fossil fuel reserves in the US. However, many municipalities have seen fit to ban its use despite seemingly positive expected net benefits. We hypothesize that an option value framework that values the ability to delay and learn about an uncertain project may explain fracking bans in practice where the neoclassical net present value rule does not. We test this by developing a stochastic dynamic learning model parameterized with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that calculates the value of learning about uncertainty over damages and uncertainty over benefits. Applying the model to a representative Colorado municipality, we quantify the quasi-option values (QOV), which create an additional incentive to ban fracking temporarily in order to learn. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to quantify an economy-wide QOV associated with a local environmental policy decision. In Chapter 1 we argue that a numerical, option value approach is the appropriate way to examine uncertain public policy issues involving sunk costs. This method allows for an optimal timing of the public project rather than the 'now or never' approach of the ubiquitous net present value rule. We present local fracking policy as an excellent application for an option value approach as has positive expected net benefits but has been subject to local bans seemingly despite the net present value rule. We also defend our use of a CGE model to estimate the local economic benefits of fracking. Chapter 2 presents the option value model associated with epistemological uncertainty over environmental damages. Also, this chapter presents damage values parameterized to the City of Fort Collins for application in this and the subsequent chapter. With this in hand, we solve the model and demonstrate the results. Chapter 3 has a similar structure to Chapter 2. First, it discusses the literature on stochastic oil movements, then it presents the option value model associated with stochastic uncertainty over local benefits. Then, assuming the same parameterized expected damage as in Chapter 2, we solve the model and display the results.Item Open Access Essays on entrepreneurship and social capital in the wake of a catastrophic disaster(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2019) Levitt, Ryan J., author; Zahran, Sammy, advisor; Iverson, Terry, advisor; Weiler, Stephan, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee memberResearch on the economics of disasters has seen a surge in interest in recent years following a series of high-profile events, such as the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, and the 2010 Haitian Earthquake (Cavallo et al., 2011). In the United States, recent hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma, and Maria have continued to draw attention to the economic consequences associated with catastrophic natural disasters. Both global climate change and the shifting of people and economic activity towards coastal areas increase the likelihood of major climatic disasters occurring in the future (Nordhaus, 2010). This dissertation utilizes Hurricane Katrina as a case study to investigate the various ways in which disasters impact a community, and the factors that both attenuate and exacerbate these impacts. The first chapter describes a framework for identifying the effects of a disaster. Using the synthetic control method, originally proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie et al. (2010), the chapter identifies the long-term population effects of Hurricane Katrina across the eight most damaged counties. Results highlight significant variation in terms of the magnitude of out-migration across these areas. Cross-county differences in population outcomes are largely the consequence of the severity of housing damage. Pre-existing county characteristics, such as the percent of the population with hazard insurance, were only weakly correlated with population outcomes. Results suggest a near unit-elastic relationship between the severity of housing damage and out-migration. Notable outliers include Jefferson and St. Tammany Parish, who experienced disproportionate out-migration due to the disaster. The paper argues that this is likely due to the significant amount of commuters that work in Orleans but reside in these two counties. The decision to return and rebuild one's home is dependent on whether one's neighbors plan to rebuild, if and when the government restores utilities and infrastructure, and whether surrounding businesses return. Because of the interdependent nature of these decisions, the process of disaster recovery is often characterized as a collective action problem, in which the degree of necessary coordination increases with the extent of out-migration. The second chapter seeks to test the hypothesis advanced by Storr et al. (2016) that entrepreneurs are important first movers in post-disaster environments. The chapter expands on the framework described in chapter one and applies the synthetic control method to all counties that experienced housing damages from Hurricane Katrina and/or Rita. Using these estimated effects as a dependent variable, the chapter explores the role of entrepreneurship in disaster recovery. Results indicate positive correlations between new firm formation and disaster recovery, both with respect to initial impacts, as well as throughout the recovery period. The final chapter investigates the impacts of Hurricane Katrina on social capital in the New Orleans Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Previous research has found that disasters often generate "therapeutic communities," in which altruism, trust, and charity increase following an event. However, the only empirical study to examine the impacts of Hurricane Katrina on social capital finds the opposite effect, in which the concentration of community-based organizations decreased after the disaster. Building on this work, I use the synthetic control method to identify the impacts of Hurricane Katrina on a social capital index, constructed using the concentration of community-based establishments and nonprofit organizations in the New Orleans MSA. The chapter finds that this index increased significantly after Hurricane Katrina, by approximately half a standard deviation relative to the level implied by the synthetic control. Additionally, the paper shows that this increase persists through the entire sample period, even as population levels recover in the area. Decomposing the index by its various components shows that this increase was fairly uniform across included establishment sectors and nonprofit organizations.Item Open Access Essays on sustainable development: renewable energy, regional growth, environment, and welfare(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2021) Jeon, Hwayoung, author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Shields, Martin, committee member; Pena, Anita, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee memberGiven the growing concerns about the consequences of climate change, development of renewable energy has attracted significant attention as a creditable alternative to fossil fuels. As a result, renewable energy has experienced significant growth in the U.S. as receiving government subsidies and support in the past decades. In order to confirm the efficiency and effectiveness of renewable support policies, this dissertation explores the role of renewable energy on regional economic growth, environmental quality, and residential electricity price in the U.S. Chapter 1 examines the effects of electricity generation from both types of energy sources on sustainable state economic growth. For the analysis, I extend the theoretical framework which incorporating the environmental externalities from energy use. Based on the theoretical model, I use the panel data set for 47 U.S. states from 1999 to 2017 by employing the two-step Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) model. The results show that renewable energy generation has a positive impact on state economic growth whereas non-renewable energy generation hampers economic growth. Furthermore, this paper finds that the effects of renew- able energy generation on economic growth are different at a level of development stage: at an early stage, electricity generation from renewable energy resources hampers economic growth while at an advanced-stage, renewable energy helps to grow the economy. The results imply that the very low operating costs for renewable energy could offset the huge financial burden of high initial investment costs in the long run. Chapter 2 demonstrates the linkages between energy-related CO2 emissions, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption for the 48 U.S. states over the period 1997-2017 by employing panel fixed-effects and the Method of Moments Quantile Regression with fixed effects developed by Machado and Silva (2019). The results provide strong evidence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation, consistent with what is known as the Environmental Kuznets Curve from fixed-effect estimation. Furthermore, this paper confirms that renewable energy consumption, electricity prices, and primary energy prices have negative impact on emissions whereas Heating Degree Days have a positive impact on emissions. Moreover, the panel quantile regression models confirm that the effects of all explanatory variables on CO2 emissions are heterogeneous at different quantiles. The main purpose of Chapter 3 is investigating the effect of renewable energy generation on retail residential prices while confirming the policy influences from Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) on the prices by using a sample of 48 U.S. states during the period 2001-2018. The empirical results of the feasible generalized least squares, and the two-step GMM models provide evidence that renewable energy generation leads to a reduction in residential electricity prices. Also, the renewable support policy, RPS, tends to increase residential electricity prices. The results imply that implementation of RPS requires additional fixed costs in the short-run however, these costs would be offset by very low operating costs of renewable energy generation in the long-run.Item Open Access Explaining participation In the Colorado Republican River And Nebraska Platte-Republican Resources Area Conservation Reserve enhancement programs(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2016) Monger, Randall Grant, author; Suter, Jordan, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Schneekloth, Joel, committee memberAgricultural land retirement is increasingly used to conserve groundwater resources, reduce challenges associated with the conjunctive use of water resources, and meet streamflow compliance. This study explores the factors that influence the participation of agricultural producers in the Colorado Republican River and Nebraska Platte-Republican Resources Area Conservation Reserve Enhancement Programs (CREP). A better understanding of what leads agricultural producers to enroll in CREP could be used to inform program managers on how changing the incentives offered or expanding eligible area would impact enrollment and ultimately groundwater conservation. We develop a theoretical model of CREP participation using a random utility framework that contains the incentives offered for participation, measures approximating the opportunity costs of participation, and aquifer and soil characteristics. We then construct a dataset of participating wells and eligible non-participating wells and generate spatial measures of the explanatory variables. We empirically investigate participation using Probit models, which are estimated with data from the three basins aggregated and also each basin separately. The sign on many of our estimated significant coefficients varies across the three models. For the three participation models, we find that an increase in saturated thickness decreases the probability of participating in CREP.Item Open Access Health and human capital effects of lead exposure(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2020) Keyes, Christopher James, author; Zahran, Sammy, advisor; Mushinski, David, committee member; Cutler, Harvey, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee memberThe legacy of lead in the United States is complex and intertwined with public health. As concerns over the toxicity of lead increased with time, policy makers responded with a series of national policies aimed at minimizing the risk of lead exposure across society. One such policy, the Clean Air Act (CAA), set a timeline for the removal of lead from gasoline beginning in 1975. This policy would target the anti-knock lead additive tetraethyl-lead (TEL), which was used to boost gasoline octane and improve engine performance (Needleman, 2000; Reyes, 2007). Over the following two decades, the flow of lead entering the environment from automobile emissions decreased precipitously. This dissertation exploits a natural experiment in lead exposure arising from the differential phase-out of leaded gasoline across states under the CAA. Though the policy was implemented at the national level, enforcement took place at the producer level, creating exogenous variation in lead emissions from automobile exhaust across states and over time. Since lead dust from automobile emissions was a significant source of lead exposure over the period, we leverage this spatial and temporal variation as a quasi-random vector of lead exposure. Chapter one summarizes the CAA, and the historical significance of the policy as it relates to public health. Using blood lead levels (BLLs) from The Second National Health Nutrition and Exercise Survey (NHANESII) as a bio-marker for lead exposure, this paper models the lead exposure effect of the policy. Combining annual gasoline sales and gasoline lead concentrations at the state level, the steps taken to construct the variables proxying for lead exposure following the CAA are detailed at length. The empirical strategy applied in this chapter is used to identify the causal effect of the phase out on lead exposure, and is carried over in the following two chapters. Much of the research focusing on the effects of lead exposure emphasize the risk faced by children, who are particularly susceptible to even minute quantities in the first five years of life. Chapter two tests the hypothesis that lead exposure in childhood impacts cognitive ability and the presence of abnormal latent preferences toward risk and uncertainty in adulthood. Applying the identification strategy detailed in Chapter one, to a nationally representative sample of individuals born during a period of significant reductions in leaded gasoline emissions, we find considerable evidence supporting the causal effect of childhood lead exposure and later in life outcomes. Across a series of tests, we find that BLLs in childhood are a significant predictor of: 1) IQ loss, measured with standardized test scores; 2) increased likelihood of low-IQ outcomes in exposure levels; and 3) increased abnormal risk response across a series of situations involving uncertain outcomes. The results presented in this paper illustrate the significance and persistent affect of early in life lead exposure. An underappreciated medium of child exposure to flow and legacy sources of lead is in-utero transmission of lead from mother to infant. Transmission of lead to the fetus occurs via diffusion across the placental barrier over the course of a pregnancy. Chapter three estimates the causal effect of maternal lead exposure on birth outcomes during the initial period of the phase out. Results show consistent evidence that fetal exposure to lead through the maternal blood lead pathway significantly depresses infant health. Our findings suggest that an increase in maternal blood lead: 1) decreases infant birthweight; 2) increases the risk of low and very low birthweight; 3) shortens gestation length; 4) increases the risk of prematurity; and 5) increases the risk of a low APGAR score. A back of the envelope calculation of the economic benefits of the phase-out of leaded gasoline through the reduction of healthcare-related costs involved in treating low birthweight infants, are in the tens of billions annually. It might be tempting to assume that lead exposure is a rear-view problem, at least in the United States, as BLLs in children have fallen since the 1990s, coincident with a series of actions that banned lead from paint, plumbing, food cans and automotive gasoline. However, the flow of lead into the environment continues from various point source polluters as well emissions from aviation gasoline used by an estimated 160,000 piston-engine aircraft (Kessler, 2013). Though the benefits to public health attributable to national policies are immense, the stock of legacy lead and present day flow sources of environmental lead remain a persistent threat to public health.Item Open Access Nature's contributions to people: socio-economic assessments of strategies to conserve natural capital and guide the sustainable provision and equitable distribution of ecosystem services in developing countries(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2023) Salcone, Jacob, author; Jones, Kelly W., advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Seidl, Andrew, committee member; Manson, Robert, committee memberNatural resources continue to be unsustainably used and their benefits inequitably shared. In many instances economic incentives and resource management approaches have not led to the sustainable use or equitable distribution of the benefits of natural resources such as fisheries and forests. This has occurred in part because policy makers and natural resource users and managers, particularly in developing countries, lack information about the outcomes and impacts of current economic incentives that drive natural resource use behavior and potential alternative strategies for resource governance and management. This dissertation uses theories and approaches from the discipline of natural resource economics to measure the benefits of natural resource use under current governance approaches, evaluate the effectiveness of popular natural resource conservation strategies, and propose options for improving the effectiveness of those strategies in developing countries, thus contributing scientific evidence to the body of literature on the effectiveness of natural resource management approaches. In three chapters, it evaluates: 1) the effectiveness of a PES scheme in securing additional provision of watershed ecosystem services, 2) the elasticity of supply of watershed ecosystem services as a function of payments for forest conservation, and 3) the use of an ecosystem services perspective to measure the distribution of benefits from wild capture fisheries to different stakeholder groups. Chapter 1 finds that PES impacts may be somewhat offset by leakages; Chapter 2 finds that participation in PES programs could be increased by higher payments, but the relationship between payments and participation is non-linear; and Chapter 3 that an ecosystem services perspective can shed new light on managing fisheries for greatest local benefits and sustainability. These three independent analyses improve our understanding of natural resource management by dissecting resource management concepts, building upon existing ecosystem service valuation and evaluation methods, and supplying empirical evidence to resource management debates.Item Open Access Prospects for sustainable intensification of smallholder farming systems in Ethiopian highlands(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Mutyasira, Vine, author; Hoag, Dana L. K., advisor; Pendell, Dustin, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Galvin, Kathleen, committee memberThis dissertation examines the prospects of sustainable agricultural intensification by rural farming households in Ethiopia. Although widely accepted as the new paradigm for agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa, several research and empirical questions still surround the concept of sustainable intensification, particularly its operationalization. Efforts to promote, measure and monitor progress towards sustainable intensification are hampered by the lack of quantifiable indicators at the farm level, as well as the uncertainty over the relationship between intensification and sustainability. This dissertation contributes to this knowledge gap by examining the relationship between agricultural intensification and sustainability, with a view to determine if sustainable paths of agricultural intensification are possible within the smallholder farming systems of Ethiopian highlands. To help better execute the research inquiry, and achieve the main goal of this study, the themes of this dissertation are addressed through three separate but interrelated essays, on top of the introductory and conclusion chapters. The first essay, presented in chapter two, examines the drivers and processes shaping agricultural intensification by smallholder farmers. This chapter contributes to the literature by providing evidence of how agricultural intensification depends on a wide range of factors, whose complex interactions give rise to different intensification pathways. The implication is that, even in a region that is undergoing the process of agricultural intensification, households are likely to respond differently to intensification incentives and production constraints, and thus pursue different paths of agricultural intensification. The second essay, chapter three, develops a methodological framework for defining elements of sustainability based on observed, context-specific priorities and technologies. Farm-level indicators of agricultural sustainability are developed using insights drawn from literature, and adapted to the Ethiopian context through consultations with agricultural experts and key stakeholders in the agricultural sector. A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework is applied to synthesize the selected indicators into a relative farm sustainability index, thus reducing subjectivity in the sustainability index. A generalized linear regression model applied on the computed sustainability scores shows that farm size, market access, access to off farm income, agricultural loans, access to agricultural extension and demonstration plots are key drivers of agricultural sustainability at the farm level. Despite being applied to the Ethiopian context; the methodology has broader policy implications and can be applied in many contexts. The third essay, chapter four, examines the relationship between agricultural intensification and relative farm sustainability, and identifies four clusters of farmers depending on their relative levels of intensification and sustainability. The main thrust of this essay is to examine whether farmers who are highly productive are also sustainable, and whether systems that are relatively more sustainable are mostly on the highly productive farms. The results show that of the farms that are relatively most intensive, in terms of the gross value of crop output per hectare, only 27 percent are relatively more sustainable. Of the farms that are relatively most sustainable, about 60 percent are more intensive. Overall, only 10 percent of the farms were both highly intensive and relatively more sustainable. In order to understand the typology of farmers that are likely to embark on sustainable paths of agricultural intensification, multivariate methods of Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Cluster Analysis (CA) were used to cluster farmers according to their common characteristics. Multinomial Logit (MNL) regression models were used to model the probability of cluster membership as well as the likelihood of farmers embarking on different intensification trajectories. is used to analyze the odds of embarking on a sustainable intensification path. The results suggest that increasing farmers' access to technical information through demonstration plots and government extension services, addressing farm liquidity constraints, improving market access, as well fostering crop-livestock interactions, significantly increases the likelihood of sustainable intensification.Item Open Access Resource privatization and endogenous production activities: can privatization of a natural resource stock benefit labor?(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Behrer, Arnold Patrick, author; Seidl, Andrew, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Cutler, Harvey, committee memberTheoretically, it has been shown that privatization of open access resources results in negative impacts on economy-wide wages paid to labor when the technology used in the resource sector remains constant. Here, we examine a case where there is a change in the optimal use of a renewable resource--open access grassland used for ranching becomes private property for tourism - to show that privatization can improve economy-wide wages in theory. Whether wages improve in practice depends on the nature of the structural change and how labor is used in the privatized activity. To explore the likelihood that wages increase in practice, we use a local general equilibrium model of villages from Chilean Patagonia to investigate the impact of open access grassland privatization on factor wages and the distribution of wealth in an empirical setting.Item Open Access Response of municipal water use to weather across the contiguous US(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2018) Opalinski, Nicole, author; Bhaskar, Aditi, advisor; Sharvelle, Sybil, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee memberMunicipal water demand exhibits seasonal patterns in response to summer withdrawals for landscape irrigation, particularly in dry regions of the western US. Outdoor water use can account for more than half of annual household water use, and therefore is a critical aspect of urban water planning under scarcity. Water use for landscape irrigation is responsive to local weather changes and drought restriction policies and therefore is targeted by demand management programs. Previous studies estimate the impact of climatic, socio-economic, and landscape factors on residential water use, but commonly focus on a single municipality. This nationwide study identified the response of municipal water use to weather variables (i.e., temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) using monthly water deliveries for 230 cities in the contiguous US. Using city-level multiple regression and regional-level fixed effects models, we investigated what portion of the variability in municipal water use was explained by weather across cities, and also estimated responses to weather across seasons and climate regions. Our findings indicated that municipal water use was generally well-explained by weather, with median adjusted R2 ranging from 63 to 95% across climate regions. Weather was more predictive of water use in dry climates compared to wet, and temperature had more explanatory power than precipitation or evapotranspiration. Climate regions and seasons were found to have significantly different water use responses to weather. In regional-level models, we found that relative seasonality in water use across regions corresponds to water use responses to changes in temperature. In response to a 1⁰C change in monthly maximum temperature, municipal water use was shown to increase by 1.1 to 3.9% on average, with greater responses in cold, dry regions and during summer. Climate change and population growth amplify the importance of understanding the impact of climate on water demand in the context of urban water supply.Item Open Access Spatial characteristics: improving model accuracy and providing regional research insights(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2024) Crofton, Kevin, author; Cutler, Harvey, advisor; Weiler, Stephan, committee member; Shields, Martin, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee memberThe research presented in this dissertation began with an investigation of water transfers from rural Colorado to a growing urban region and how this would affect the rural economy. Chapter 1 focuses on the growing concern of water scarcity in the arid western region of the US. In this part of the country, it is widely known that water is limited, and as populations continue to increase, so will the demand for water, which is already in short supply. A multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (MRCGE) model using spatially detailed data was built to study the impact of urban growth on a rural community and is presented in Chapter 1. The construction of the MRCGE model led to consideration of how aggregation shapes output. This evolved into a comparison of a MRCGE model that utilized spatial details that explained the differences between a rural and urban economies with a single region CGE model that aggregated these regional differences. Chapter 2 discusses identical simulations in either model, demonstrates insights gained from refining the spatial details into a MRCGE model, and identifies specific elements lost when using a broader aggregated description blending different regions together. Different spatial qualities between locations are critical in expanding the understanding of skier behavior. Chapter 3 provides a skier behavior model of the US, which confirms the pull effect of destination snowfall shown in regional models of the ski industry. Additionally, this research demonstrates that skier origin weather also influences skier visitation by shifting the subjective interest of traveling to another region. The result of this model provides evidence of push and pull weather variables for a winter ski destination, filling a gap generally left by travel literature that often focuses on warm weather destinations. Chapter 1 describes a three-region CGE model that utilizes the unique spatial characteristics of urban, rural, and interface regions; the latter includes a blend of features of both the rural and urban regions. Using explicitly defined regions provides an enhanced analysis of each community's Ag and non-Ag sectors, while also describing the impact on households. This model connects the three regions via a water market, which allows for endogenous transfers of water to occur due to urban population growth. The model adds an interregional intermediate input market, allowing urban growth to demand greater domestic supply from the rural and interface industries. The interregional intermediate input market, which captures another link between the urban region and the rural region, is a new addition to the literature. These key modeling features refine the approach to investigate urban growth's influence on a rural economy by modeling multiple interregional markets and identifying regional specific characteristics. Chapter 1 allows for a more complete understanding of the dynamics between urban growth, water transfer from the rural region, and the resulting influence on the rural economy. Chapter 1 compares a model, which includes the water market and the intermediate input market, to two restricted models, either only trade water or only trade intermediate inputs, between regions to assess the impact these markets have on the rural economy. This comparison demonstrates that both markets can increase the cost of production due to greater urban demand, but when either is restricted, rural economies can expand in respond to urban growth. When water cannot be traded between regions factor prices become relatively cheaper in the rural region because there is not the greater urban demand causing higher water prices. With cheaper factors the rural economy can expand supply to meet the growing urban demand for intermediate inputs. When the water market is the only interregional market, the rural region transfers water (primarily from the agricultural sector resulting in Ag output decline), to the urban region. The rural agricultural sector subsequently reduces their demand for land and labor making it available to the rural non-Ag sector, thus expanding their output with these relatively cheaper factors. The greater output of the non-Ag sector offsets the Ag decline in output, resulting in a total domestic supply increase. The rural economy increases output in each alternative model due to different cross-regional effects but experiences a decline in output when all interregional markets are modeled. The inclusion of both markets generates higher cost of production that cannot be offset by substitution between sectors or by the greater urban demand for intermediate inputs. Past research has focused on how the rural region adjusts to water transfers with varied conclusions. For example, Berck et al. (1991) describes rural agriculture shifting to less water intensive production methods and benefitting from the combined payment for their water and the adjusted domestic supply. Alternatively, Seung et al. (2000) describes a decline in rural domestic supply in response to water transfers, relying on a Leontief factor substitution specification. Both research conclusions depended on the elasticity of factor substitution. The model used in Chapter 1 applies a constant elasticity of substitution that is similar to Berck et al. (1991) but describes a decline in rural domestic supply. This different economic outcome is due to the dynamics of markets that connect the multiple regions, rather than only modeling the rural region in isolation. The Watson and Davies (2009) model includes a water market that endogenously transfers water between sectors due to urban population growth. In their model, water is a factor input for all sectors of the economy, and as urban population expands, it shifts the demand for water to non-agricultural outputs, resulting in a higher water price. The higher price of water forces the agricultural sector to shift to less water intensive production methods resulting in less output. However, the large urban population demands greater agricultural output offsetting negative supply shift. One weakness of this model is that households and industries are not regionally identified, making it unclear how rural and urban regional economic outcomes differ. The model in Chapter 1 applies a similar endogenous water market driven by urban growth but concludes that rural domestic supply and household income both decline due to regional price variations derived from the multiregional approach. Chapter 2 compares a spatial disaggregated MRCGE model to a single region model that uses the same data to expose the importance of spatial aggregation in CGE modeling. This analysis isolates the influence of how aggregation shapes output, revealing the differences between the two models with identical simulations. The performance of the two models highlights that spatial data must be correctly leveraged by a disaggregated structure to explain unique regional output. This comparison demonstrates that qualities in the analysis are lost when CGE models use larger aggregated regions rather than a spatially sensitive MRCGE approach, which illustrates the importance of modeling spatial details. The water model from Chapter 1 is transformed into a single region model and compared to the original specification. The same data is used in each model, leaving only the regional specification as the structural difference between them. The data used in this model is based on PUMS data that describe community level labor and household characteristics, refining the disaggregated descriptions of regional economies. Additionally, county assessor's data provide parcel level descriptions of land and building values, thus improving the descriptions of residential and business in the model. Each of these data sets refine spatial details, which enhance the multiregional specification. When these details are aggregated into a single region, many of the county level insights are obscured. For example, rural labor markets have greater wage gains compared to similar labor groups in different regions in response to a total factor productivity increase. This outcome is unique to the rural region, and under the aggregated single region model, this labor group does not experience an increase in wages. The model comparison demonstrates how spatial characteristics represented by the MRCGE structure can shape output by preserving spatial characteristics, which determine unique model behaviors that enhance economic analysis. The literature has recognized the benefits of the MRCGE specification. However, the justification for the MRCGE improvements over past aggregated approaches is due to adjusting the older aggregated structure with spatially descriptive data and revealing new outputs. The problem with this approach is that the new model has both a change in structure from a single region to a multi-region, and it includes additional spatial descriptive data. This method cannot determine whether improved spatial data or the spatial disaggregation is responsible for the improvement. To address this, the model presented in Chapter 2 aggregates a disaggregated model so that the spatial data values are the same but have been transformed from spatial to aspatial. This approach allows the spatial structure to be analyzed without the influence of additional data, revealing how this uniquely impacts and shapes the output. Chapter 3 describes how weather motivates skiers to travel from one region to another in the US. It is widely known that skiing benefits from winter conditions and that skiers are willing to travel to other locations to pursue better quality ski experiences. This model considers seasonal weather variations of destination ski areas and the origin weather variables that could impact their decision-making process. Destination and origin weather variables are significant determinants of skier visits, as confirmed by the research. Snow accumulation at a destination can pull greater visits, and colder weather at the origin makes ski trips more appealing. Chapter 3 fits within the broad literature on travel that has focused on weather's influences on travel decisions. The travel literature describes the desirable weather variables that pull travelers towards those destinations. Additionally, this literature provides push variables where the weather of a traveler's origin changes their subjective demand for leaving their home for vacation. The push and pull effects of destination and origin weather have been applied extensively to warm weather destinations, but there are many fewer applications for the winter season and cold-weather destinations. This model tests the push and pull effect for ski areas in the US and confirms that colder, snowy destination weather pulls a greater number of skier visits and that colder weather at a skier origin further pushes them to ski in any region. The gap in the travel literature is also shared by the ski industry studies that have exclusively focused on how destination temperature and snowfall contribute to skier attendance. The ski industry research has not examined how the skier's origin influences attendance. This model addresses the smaller scope of the ski industry research that focuses on one ski area instead of skier behavior across the whole country. Across each of the chapters in this dissertation, spatial details motivate unique economic activity. From western water markets to the differences between rural and urban labor markets to the impact of destination snowfall on skier visits, the inclusion of spatial characteristics improves model analysis and provides key insights into regional research. The diverse application in the following chapters provides strong evidence of the importance of spatial characteristics, highlighting how they shape individual behavior and drive unique research and economic outcomes.Item Open Access Three essays on disease, development, and intervention(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Hatch, Brody, author; Bernasek, Alex, advisor; Shwiff, Stephanie, committee member; Iverson, Terrence, committee member; Anderson, Aaron, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee memberThe effect of health on development is well documented in the literature. Generally, variables like life expectancy and infant mortality are used as proxies for overall health. These variables encompass all potential causes of mortality and morbidity and may not provide useful policy prescriptions. Individual diseases are explored as well, such as malaria, but are not necessarily compared. This paper will map the income and age profile of 150+ individual causes of mortality. Mortality data are explored for 150+ causes, for 185 countries in 1990 and 2010. We summarize the data to show that mortality rates certain low income burdens decline rapidly as income grows while other remain constant, or even increase. We also develop a framework with with the individual relationships between burdens the income growth or vice-versa could be explored. We present a multi-species dynamic population model of wildlife management in which a manager applies spatial or individual-based disease protection interventions to a wildlife species with high existence value. We use the model to investigate the choice between the alternative interventions assuming the manager's objective is to 1) maximize abundance subject to a budget constraint or 2) minimize management costs subject to a desired abundance level. The model is specifically used to analyze population dynamics between the endangered black footed ferret and prairie dogs which are susceptible to sylvatic plague outbreaks. While specific results are sensitive to biological and economic parameters, we find a defined switch point between the recommended use of spatial vs. individual disease mitigation interventions based on either a target population or potential fixed budget. Below a specific budget or target abundance, individual-based protection should be used, while above, spatial protection should be used. We present an individual-based stochastic simulation model of wildlife population and disease dynamics under different management strategies. Our objective is to estimate the cost and biological outcome of various vaccination strategies against rabies in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. A health economic data assessment such as we present here is a crucial component of disease control. This analysis can guide management decisions by highlighting cost-effective strategies. At a broader level, it will provide information to policy makers and other stakeholders regarding both the feasibility and public health benefits, stemming from reduced canine to human transmission, of the elimination of canine rabies.Item Open Access Three essays on institutional design for voluntary water conservation(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Sharp, Misti, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Suter, Jordan, committee member; Arabi, Mazdak, committee memberThis dissertation is a compilation of three essays on institutional issues inherent in water conservation decision making by agricultural producers. Chapter 1 includes summaries of the three papers I intend to defend and introduces some ideas and concepts visited throughout the dissertation. Chapter 2 presents the results of a multidisciplinary study on managing selenium pollution in the Lower Arkansas River Basin in Southeastern Colorado titled, "Institutional Constraints on Cost-Effective Water Management: Selenium Contamination in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley." The study presents the cost-effectiveness of various management practices to mitigate selenium pollution flows simulated over twenty years using regional scale groundwater and reactive solute transport models. Social institutions, such as rules on water conservation, serve to influence decision making and alter the economic feasibility of conservation efforts. The third chapter, "Uncertainty and Technology Adoption: Lessons from the Arkansas River Valley," extends the property rights institutional concerns introduced in chapter 2 and looks specifically to how use-based property rights influence decision making for conservation irrigation technology. When an irreversible investment is made under uncertainty, there is often a delay in investment that would not be seen under the traditional Marshallian framework for investment. This study advances the literature by exploring how property rights further exacerbate this option value hurdle which serves to further delay investment under uncertain water supplies. An empirical section explores how property rights are being applied in the Arkansas River Basin and discusses the implications for future conservation efforts. Finally, the last chapter, "An Experimental Approach to Resolving Uncertainty in Water Quality Trading Markets," uses experimental economics to explore the impacts of resolving uncertainty in water quality trading market design. This paper looks at whether non-point sources would take an opportunity to resolve environmental uncertainty if there is a water quality trading market in place. Additionally, it explores the interactions between a pollution market and voluntary abatement with and without a voluntary-threat regulation.Item Open Access Three essays on the economics of water resources and climate change(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2024) Blumberg, Joey, author; Goemans, Chris, advisor; Manning, Dale, committee member; Burkhardt, Jesse, committee member; Arabi, Mazdak, committee memberThis dissertation investigates three broad topics in the economics of water resources and climate change. In the first chapter, I explore how changes in perceptions about water availability affect the adoption of conservation practices. I present a theoretical framework to examine how producer perceptions influence investment in irrigation efficiency, and a period of extreme drought and institutional change in Colorado is leveraged as a natural experiment to evaluate theoretical hypotheses empirically. The second chapter assesses the sensitivity of climate change impact estimates to the climate economy functional form in agriculture. I accomplish this through the development of a long-run dataset of county-level weather and climate metrics, including hourly temperature measurements across all counties in the conterminous US, and demonstrate the consequences of multiple modelling approaches that are common in the literature. I also create a composite vulnerability index that integrates the magnitude and consistency of impacts across all defensible models to generate a comprehensive measure of climate risk to a county's agricultural sector. In the final chapter, I compare the economic efficiency of different water allocation mechanisms. A combination of optimization models and water supply simulations are employed to compare prior appropriation with and without water markets, and alternative, share-based mechanisms. I illustrate how the physical and institutional components of a river basin, such return flows, user seniority, heterogeneous value functions, and user locations (i.e., upstream or downstream), impact allocative performance.Item Open Access Water quality and fishery impacts(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2023) Wilson, Michelan, author; Barbier, Edward, advisor; Pena, Anita, committee member; Tavani, Daniele, committee member; Manning, Dale, committee memberFishery production is an important source of income for many people across the world. Marine and freshwater fisheries provide jobs in local communities and is also important for trade in both developing and developed economies. Climate change and human activities pose a threat to the fish production by changing habitat quality. Changes in fish production have direct impacts on economic welfare (consumer and producer surplus) and the goal of fishery management is to improve both biological and economic fishery outcomes. This dissertation explores the relationship between fish production and various water quality indicators in the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence (EGSL) and examines the economic impact of changes in water quality in fisheries. It examines the pathways through which water quality impacts fish stocks and subsequent impacts on harvest and economic welfare, and suggests policies for fishery management. Chapter one examines the impact of water quality in a marine fishery under regulated access. It particularly focuses on how hypoxia impacts welfare in a large fishery that has different degrees of hypoxia. Chapter two examines water quality in a freshwater fishery and focuses on the direct and indirect mechanisms through which nutrient pollution impacts fisheries. Finally, chapter three acts as an extension to chapter one, examining the impact of hypoxia on a marine species with an additional assumption that the impact of this water quality indicator may be different at different life stages, which may change the possible welfare impacts of variations in water quality.