Browsing by Author "Grigg, Neil S., advisor"
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Item Open Access A facilitated process and online toolset to analyze complex systems and coordinate active watershed development and transformation(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Herzog, Margaret T., author; Labadie, John W., advisor; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Sharvelle, Sybil, committee member; Lacy, Michael G., committee member; Clayshulte, Russell N., committee memberIntegrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) coordinates public, private, and nonprofit sectors in strategic resource development, while emphasizing holistic environmental protection. Without more integrated efforts, adverse human affects to water, other natural resources, and ecosystems services may worsen and cause more unintended cross-scale effects. Meanwhile, fragmented jurisdictional controls and competing demands continue to create new obstacles to shared solutions. Lack of coordination may accentuate negative impacts of extreme events, over-extraction, and other, often unrecognized threats to social-ecological systems integrity. To contend with these challenges, a research-based, facilitated process was used to design an online toolset to analyze complex systems more holistically, while exploring more ways to coordinate joint efforts. Although the focus of the research was the watershed scale, different scales of social-ecological problems may be amenable to this approach. The process builds on an adaptive co-management (ACM) framework. ACM promotes systems-wide, incremental improvements through cooperative action and reflection about complex issues affecting social-ecological systems at nested and overlapping scales. The resulting ACM Decision Support System (DSS) process may help reduce fragmentation in both habitat and social structure by recognizing and encouraging complex systems reintegration and reorganization to improve outcomes. The ACM DSS process incorporates resilience practice techniques to anticipate risks by monitoring drivers and thresholds and to build coordinated coping strategies. The Bear Creek Watershed Association (BCWA) served as a case study in nutrient management, which focused on understanding and mitigating the complex causes of cultural eutrophication in Bear Creek Reservoir - a flood control reservoir to which the entire watershed drains. The watershed lies in the Upper South Platte River Basin -the eastern mountain headwaters to metropolitan Denver, Colorado in the United States. To initiate Phase I of the ACM DSS process, qualitative data on issues, options, social ties, and current practices were triangulated through organizational interviews, document review, a systems design group, and ongoing BCWA, community, river basin, and state-level participation. The mixed methods approach employed geographic information systems (GIS) for spatial analysis, along with statistical analysis and modeling techniques to assess reported issues and potential options quantitatively. Social network analysis (SNA) was used systematically to evaluate organizational relationships, transactions, and to direct network expansion towards a more robust core-periphery network structure. Technical and local knowledge developed through these methods were complimented by ongoing academic literature review and analysis of related watershed efforts near and far. Concurrently, BCWA member organizations helped to incrementally design and test an online toolset for greater emphasis on ACM principles in watershed program management. To date, online components of the ACM DSS include issues reporting, interactive maps, monitoring data access, group search, a topical knowledge base, projects and options tracking, and watershed and lake management plan input. Online toolset development complimented assessment by formalizing what was learned together throughout the ACM DSS process to direct subsequent actions to align with this approach. Since the online system was designed using open source software and a flexible content management system, results can be readily adapted to serve a wider variety of purposes by adjusting the underlying datasets. The research produced several potentially useful results. A post-project survey averaged 9.3 on a 10-point satisfaction scale. The BCWA board adopted the resulting ACM DSS process as a permanent best management practice, funding a facilitator to continue its expansion. A network weaver to continually foster cooperation, a knowledge curator to expand shared knowledge resources, and a systems engineer to reduce uncertainty and ambiguity and dissect complexity were all found to be critical new roles for successful ACM implementation. Watershed program comparisons also revealed ten qualities that may promote ACM. The technical analysis of nutrient issues revealed that phosphorus enrichment from phosphorus desorption from fine sediments contributed to cultural eutrophication through several distinct mechanisms, which may be addressed through a wider range of non-point source controls and in-lake management options. Potential affects from floods, wildfires, and droughts were assessed, which has resulted in more coordinated, proactive plans and studies. Next steps include formulating multi-institutional, multi-level academic studies in the watershed, expanding community engagement efforts, and establishing innovation clusters. Multi-disciplinary research needs include studying nutrient exchange processes, piloting decentralized wastewater treatment systems, optimizing phosphorus removal processes, chemically blueprinting nutrient source streams, and developing an integrated modeling framework. At least four additional stages of development are planned to refine and mature the ACM DSS process over time. The ACM DSS process is also being considered for other places and IWRM problem sets.Item Open Access Capacity building for flood management in developing countries under climate change(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2010) Katsuhama, Yoshihiro, author; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Oad, Ramchand Naraindas, committee member; Vlachos, Evan, committee member; Mumme, Stephen P., committee memberClimate change will bring new flood threats, especially in developing countries. In addition, the contexts surrounding flood management have been shifting globally. If developing countries are to address serious flood risks caused by insufficient infrastructure and lack of legislation and enforcement programs, they must improve institutional, organizational, and individual capacities for flood management systems. The research for this dissertation explored how to alleviate flood damage and achieve sound economic growth in developing countries in the context of a global paradigm shift in flood management under climate change with a focus on capacity building. The research established a conceptual model to clarify the relationships between flood risks, elements of flood management systems, and the influence of institutional, organizational, and individual capacities on the system elements. The research also offered a tool to evaluate how capacity affects the systems and to identify the needs for capacity building. Additionally, the research established and tested capacity building methodologies for flood management in developing countries under climate change, including both principles and the procedures to implement them. Case studies in Jakarta, Indonesia and the Tokai region, Japan were analyzed to identify capacity building needs and constraints in developing countries as well as factors determining effectiveness of flood management systems. They showed that while institutional arrangements are essential for effective flood management, their effectiveness depends on the capacity to implement them. While infrastructure may mitigate flood damage, the limitations of infrastructure must be recognized and should not induce complacency. Awareness of flood threats and management by the local community is a key issue and data accessibility is fundamental to the flood management process. The conceptual model used here identified capacity-related flood management problems and their interrelationships clarified the needs for capacity building at institutional, organizational, and individual levels throughout the flood management processes. Case studies in Manila, the Philippines and the Nyando river basin, Kenya led to the following principles of capacity building for flood management in developing countries under climate change: 1. Capacity to implement both structural and non-structural measures needs to be developed, 2. All institutional, organizational, and individual capacity is crucial, 3. Leadership and decision-making capacity are more necessary under increased flood risks, and 4. Capacity to secure the 'three Es' (effectiveness, efficiency, and equity) is the key to increasing feasibility of flood management means. Then, capacity building procedures to implement the principles were formulated, which consisted of the processes of capacity assessments; integration of resources including formulation and prioritization of alternatives and implementation of priority measures; and human resources development to make the most use of the resources. The case studies also suggested that complexity of problems and levels of self-sufficiency differed between urban and rural areas regardless of the shared necessity of comprehensive capacity building. Following the recent paradigm shift on public policy and the increasing complexity and uncertainty under climate change, the requirements to identify and solve problems in a comprehensive and integrated manner are even more important. Considering that problems in developing countries are more complex and intertwined than those in developed countries, the trade-offs between the requirements for flood management and the need to cope with flood risks in developing countries take on greater urgency. Given these concerns, the research offered the tools to assess and improve flood management systems. Institutional, organizational, and individual capacity building based on appropriate problem identification and needs clarification is time-consuming yet ultimately, it is the fastest and the most inevitable road for effective flood management under climate change.Item Open Access Conjunctive use management strategy with small aquifers to minimize dry-season damage and meet instream flow targets(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2008) Cho, Young-Dae, author; Grigg, Neil S., advisorThis dissertation addresses the connections between surface and ground water when alluvial aquifer systems are small, presents a series of technical and institutional analyses to show how to manage a limited water source at the basin level, and addresses management strategies for conjunctive use to understand and provide potential solutions for water conflicts. In the case study area, the middle section of the Geum River in Korea, the major issue is increasing in-stream flow requirements during severe drought that have been imposed by downstream stakeholders and nongovernmental organizations (NGO) after dam completion. The case also involves a large trans-basin diversion.Item Open Access Failure assessment model to prioritize pipe replacement in water utility asset management(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2006) Rogers, Peter D., author; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Roesner, Larry A., committee member; Vlachos, Evan C., committee member; Oad, Ramchand, committee memberThe condition of a water distribution system has strong correlations with community health and economic development. However, studies indicate an urgent need to upgrade the nation's aging and deteriorating distribution systems if they are to continue to provide customers with reliable and safe water supplies. In response, water utilities are using various performance measurement initiatives including pipeline asset management. These require assessment of each pipeline's condition to identify failure-prone pipes and prioritize their renewal. However, the below ground location of the pipes and lack of standard guidelines or tools to assist in assessment make pipeline assessment and renewal decisions difficult. In this research, a pipe failure assessment model was developed and tested to assist water utilities with their pipe renewal decisions. A conceptual model was created from a review of case studies, theories and asset management tools. The model consists of several modules (components) written in Visual Basic for Application (VBA) within a Microsoft Excel platform. Rather than requiring extensive field data to determine the cause of breaks, the model's failure prediction module and Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) modules use pipe inventory and break data compiled from the utility's existing operation and maintenance records. Recognizing that pipe renewal decisions are based on risk avoidance as well as on failure probabilities, a unique feature of the model is a consequence module that allows the decision maker to compare "what-if" infrastructure investment scenarios. The conceptual model was refined through collaboration of a focus group of water utility professionals. By drawing on the knowledge and experience of these experts, the review process added unique features that facilitate the model's use and responsiveness to the industry's needs. The model was tested using pipe inventory and break history information contributed by Laramie (Wyoming) Water and Colorado Springs Utilities. Although each water supplier differs in population served, operating conditions, pipe inventories, and pipe break histories, both utilities were able to provide their pipe inventory and break history in electronic form which facilitated the model processing. Evaluations from the participating utilities indicated that the pipe failure assessment model would enhance the industry's ability to prioritize pipe renewal decisions and improve their return on investment. Utility personnel indicated that the model's use of routine pipeline operation and maintenance records, combined with its consequence modeling features, addresses both the data limitations and risk avoidance characteristics of the industry in a way that is intuitive and understandable to utility staff. Utility personnel also commented that the model adds knowledge and transparency to the decision process, which is critical in an environment in which decisions will have to withstand scrutiny from various interest groups. Lastly, the investigation illustrates the need for better inventory and break data since this data plays such an important role in the industry's buried infrastructure planning programs.Item Open Access GIS-based reservoir planning with limited data in developing nations: a case study of the Lower Mekong River Basin(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Cvar, Aaron, author; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Labadie, John, committee member; Fontane, Darrell, committee member; Leisz, Stephen, committee member; Laituri, Melinda, committee memberTo view the abstract, please see the full text of the document.Item Open Access Integrated decision-making for urban raw water supply in developing countries(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Soentoro, Edy Anto, author; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Fontane, Darrell G., committee member; Vlachos, Evan C., committee member; Zahran, Sammy, committee memberRapid urbanization and development are causing severe problems of raw water extraction and related environmental and social impacts in developing countries. This study demonstrated that an integrated approach to decision making could help solve these problems. A case study of raw water management in the region of Jabotabek, Indonesia, which is in and around Jakarta, exhibited social and environmental problems including land-subsidence. The integrated approach was applied in a simulated planning process for raw water development, to include consideration of the economic, environmental and social demands, the hydrological system, and the institutional systems that exist in particular areas. Simulation and optimization techniques (Supply_sim model) were used to determine the planned water allocation for a series of demand clusters for a suite of alternatives and development strategies. A multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) based on a decision support system (DSS) was used as an Integrated Decision-Making model to analyze the important and related aspects as one integrated system and to find the best set of decision options. The overall result of the study showed that the integrated approach could improve the decision process to solve the problem. However, its success ultimately depends on the political will of the government to apply the approach. The government needs to improve coordination among the institutions related to raw water supply development and to carry out a transparent decision-making process. Regulations on land-use planning, groundwater abstraction and water pollution control should be applied strictly and aimed to maintain raw water sources. The study also showed that a decision process tool such as the DSS within an integrated framework of decision making could help decision makers to reach consensus and gain stakeholder participation, accountability and commitment to the decision being made. In dealing with complex raw water problems in large cities, the study also showed that planning systems could help decision makers to think systematically to improve the decision results.Item Open Access Integrated flood management model: a socio-technical systems approach to overcome institutional problems in Jakarta(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2010) Akmalah, Emma, author; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Fontane, Darrell G., committee member; Salas, Jose D., committee member; Vlachos, Evan C., committee memberUrban flooding is a systemic problem of urban areas in developing countries, which face other difficult problems of urbanization, social inequality, and environmental degradation. The threats may overwhelm the institutional capacity to respond and cities may be unable to cope with the consequences. Although floods are triggered by natural events, the hazards they present are also affected by the social, economic, and political environments where people live. Low-income people suffer most from flood disasters because they tend to live in flood-prone areas, often do not understand the hazards they face, and lack institutional support. This urgent situation of flooding in developing countries led to this study, which uses systems analysis tools to address flood disaster problems from multiple perspectives. Since flooding in Jakarta is a complex socio-technical problem, an integrated approach is used to show how to reduce the risk and mitigate the effects of flooding. The flood management system should be regarded as an integral part of the urban system, which displays very dynamic behavior among its subsystems. The urban system analysis showed the links among attractiveness of the city, migration, poverty, lack of community cohesion, overwhelmed infrastructure and management systems, and the resulting succession of flood disasters. The study applies a model of institutional, socio-economic, technical, financial, and environmental aspects of flooding in developing countries and uses a case study of flooding in Jakarta, Indonesia to test hypotheses about managing flood hazards in an integrated manner. The management model is based on an Integrated Flood Management approach to: identify stakeholders’ roles, responsibilities, and actions to solve the problems; identify gaps between the disaster responses needed and provided; and build collaborative actions among stakeholders to overcome institutional problems. It seeks to identify appropriate flood management strategies that are sensitive to local conditions. An integrated approach emphasizes community participation and a combination of structural and non-structural measures for flood mitigation programs and is directed to both short-term and long-term impacts and consequences. It also presents a framework for institutional analysis to ensure the political commitment for a proper institutional coordination, resources mobilization and enhancement of preparedness. As a key path to a solution to the flood problem in Jakarta, the integrated approach must involve all relevant sectors and communities. This will require a paradigm shift in how flood problems are identified, addressed, and solved. Such an approach must involve a mutual effort at the institutional and community levels by enhancing institutional capacity at the local government level as well as empowerment of the total community. The suggested model can be used in order to help policy makers develop an effective and comprehensive flood management strategy, solve flood problems, and improve local conditions. Considering that many large cities in developing countries face similar problems, the analysis and the case study can provide an example to help other flood-prone cities with similar characteristics and pattern of urban development.Item Open Access Internal hydraulics of baffled disinfection contact tanks using computational fluid dynamics(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2010) Xu, Qing, author; Venayagamoorthy, Subhas Karan, advisor; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Gilkey, David P., committee memberThe present study focuses on understanding the internal hydraulics of baffled disinfection contact tanks for small drinking water systems using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The emphasis of this study is to improve the hydraulic efficiency of disinfection contact tanks. In particular, the answer to the following key question was sought: for a given footprint of a contact tank, how does the hydraulic efficiency of the tank depend on the number and geometry of internal baffles? In an effort to address this question, high resolution two-dimensional (planar) simulations were performed to quantify the efficiency of a laboratory scale tank as a function of the number of baffles. Simulation results of the velocity field highlight dead (stagnant) zones in the tank that occur due to flow separation around the baffles. Simulated longitudinal velocity profiles show good agreement with previous experimental results. Analysis of residence time distribution (RTD) curves obtained for different number of baffles for a given footprint of a tank indicate that there may be an optimum number of baffles for which near plug flow conditions is maximized. This study highlights the increasing role and value of CFD in improving hydraulic design characteristics of water engineering structures. As a precursor to the CFD study, a focused literature review of disinfection systems was done to highlight the basic technologies and related applications. The review presented in this thesis summarizes details of small water treatment plants, disinfection and CT (where C is the concentration of disinfectant at the outlet of the disinfection system, and T is the time taken for the fluid to leave the system.) method, traditional tracer studies, tank design, and the development of numerical simulations. Following the review, the CFD model used for this investigation was validated using results from a previous case study of a large-scale water treatment plant in Canada. This initial CFD study is also used to highlight the uses and abuses of CFD in flow modeling and emphasize the importance of having adequate validation studies to complement the CFD work.Item Open Access Long-term-robust adaptation strategies for reservoir operation considering magnitude and timing of climate change: application to Diyala River Basin in Iraq(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2020) Waheed, Saddam Qahtan, author; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Ramirez, Jorge A., committee member; Bailey, Ryan T., committee member; Fassnacht, Steven R., committee memberVulnerability assessment due to climate change impacts is of paramount importance for reservoir operation to achieve the goals of water resources management. This requires accurate forcing and basin data to build a valid hydrology model and assessment of the sensitivity of model results to the forcing data and uncertainty of model parameters. The first objective of this study is to construct the model and identify its sensitivity to the model parameters and uncertainty of the forcing data. The second objective is to develop a Parametric Regional Weather Generator (RP-WG) for use in areas with limited data availability that mimics observed characteristics. The third objective is to propose and assess a decision-making framework to evaluate pre-specified reservoir operation plans, determine the theoretical optimal plan, and identify the anticipated best timeframe for implementation by considering all possible climate scenarios. To construct the model, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) platform was selected to simulate the characteristics of the Diyala River Basin (DRB) in Iraq. Several methods were used to obtain the forcing data and they were validated using the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric. Variables considered include precipitation, temperature, and wind speed. Model sensitivity and uncertainty were examined by the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) and the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) techniques. The proposed RP-WG was based on (1) a First-order, Two-state Markov Chain to simulate precipitation occurrences; (2) use of Wilks' technique to produce correlated weather variables at multiple sites with conservation of spatial, temporal, and cross correlations; and (3) the capability to produce a wide range of synthetic climate scenarios. A probabilistic decision-making framework under nonstationary hydroclimatic conditions was proposed with four stages: (1) climate exposure generation (2) supply scenario calculations, (3) demand scenario calculations, and (4) multi-objective performance assessment. The framework incorporated a new metric called Maximum Allowable Time to examine the timeframe for robust adaptations. Three synthetic pre-suggested plans were examined to avoid undesirable long-term climate change impacts, while the theoretical-optimal plan was identified by the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II. The multiplicative random cascade and Schaake Shuffle techniques were used to determine daily precipitation data, while a set of correction equations was developed to adjust the daily temperature and wind speed. The depth of the second soil layer caused most sensitivity in the VIC model, and the uncertainty intervals demonstrated the validity of the VIC model to generate reasonable forecasts. The daily VIC outputs were calibrated with a KGE average of 0.743, and they were free from non-normality, heteroscedasticity, and auto-correlation. Results of the PR-WG evaluation show that it exhibited high values of the KGE, preserved the statistical properties of the observed variables, and conserved the spatial, temporal, and cross correlations among the weather variables at all sites. Finally, risk assessment results show that current operational rules are robust for flood protection but vulnerable in drought periods. This implies that the project managers should pay special attention to the drought and spur new technologies to counteract. Precipitation changes were dominant in flood and drought management, and temperature and wind speed changes effects were significant during drought. The results demonstrated the framework's effectiveness to quantify detrimental climate change effects in magnitude and timing with the ability to provide a long-term guide (and timeframe) to avert the negative impacts.Item Open Access Methodology for evaluating flood damage reduction alternatives using a GIS-based MCDA interactive model(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2008) Lim, Kwang-Suop, author; Fontane, Darrell G., advisor; Grigg, Neil S., advisorFloodplain management involves the use of spatial physical information and information on decision makers' preferences. Both of these sources of information can have various degrees of imprecision. This research proposed a combined geographic information system (GIS) with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The use of GIS can give technical specialists and ultimately decision makers the possibility to find more spatially distributed information. These can be used to augment, an MCDA approach, which is an efficient tool for considering multiple-criteria in deciding on the best alternatives in a synthesized and integrated manner. The outcome of a floodplain management study is typically a recommendation for a single alternative flood management strategy. If this is developed by simply averaging over the entire floodplain, information is lost about the impact of the various alternatives on specific points in the floodplain. The ability to view this spatially distributed information could provide decision makers with a better understanding of the impacts of selected a specific alternative. Finally, a "cost of uniformity" metric is proposed that allows the decision makers to better determine the impact of selecting a single alternative for the floodplain by considering the spatially diverse information developed in the MCDA. The target region for a demonstration application of the methodology was the Suyoung River Basin in Korea. The 1991 Gladys flood event and five different return periods were used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed methodology of evaluation of various flood damage reduction alternatives. Through a case study, the characteristics of four different MCDA methods and the impact of inserting additional criteria into the MCDA are examined and compared. Based upon the comparison between the methods, it has been illustrated that the Improved Spatial Fuzzy Weighted Average Method using an S-shaped Membership Function applied to adjusted digital elevation maps provides enhanced information for evaluating flood damage reduction alternatives.Item Open Access Models for management of water conflicts: a case study of the San-Joaquin Watershed, California(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Akhbari, Masih, author; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Vlachos, Evan C., committee member; Fontane, Darrell G., committee member; Laituri, Melinda J., committee memberCompetition for use of water is increasing and leads to many conflicts among competing interests with complex goals in water management systems. To deal with the complex competing and conflicting situations, a variety of changes in management policies are required. Technical system models are essential to create performance and other decision information, but models to simulate views of the competing parties are also needed to help resolve or mitigate conflicts. These models can be used as helpful tools to designate effective strategies and water resources management policies that encourage parties to cooperate by accurately simulating the stakeholders' behavior and interactions. In this study a new approach to agent-based modeling (ABM) was introduced to simulate the behavior and interactions of the parties participating in a conflict scenario, which was modeled as a game. Water issues of California's San Joaquin River watershed were used as an example of a long-standing situation. The ABM explained the interactions among the parties and how they could be encouraged to cooperate in the game to work toward a solution. It was confirmed that this model can be used to manage conflicts in complex water resources systems as a powerful tool to establish rules based on the timing of flows, water demands, environmental concerns, and legislative resources. It provides a clear description of human-organizational interactions and a better understanding of complex interactive systems by simplifying the complexity of views and interactions of competing parties. Using this proposed conflict management model, decision-makers will have more reliable support for their decision-making processes.Item Open Access Strategies for limited and deficit irrigation to maximize on-farm profit potential in Colorado's South Platte Basin(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2011) Smith, Stephen W., author; Grigg, Neil S., advisor; Loftis, Jim, committee member; Pritchett, James G., committee member; Wilkins, John, committee memberMunicipalities and other water providers are expected to seek increasing amounts of agricultural water to meet the demand to be created by projected future growth along the Front Range of Colorado and within the South Platte Basin. Farms often are acquired outright, the water rights parted off, and the decree changed to municipal use--a process commonly referred to in the regional water community as "buy and dry". Concerned about the negative effects of buy and dry on agriculture, rural communities, and even the environment, the State of Colorado has funded research into alternative, less permanent methods for transferring water from agriculture. The purpose of this dissertation is to demonstrate through a simulation and optimization model that successful farming operations can be continued while agricultural producers benefit financially from a proportional parting-off of the water right. . Further, this dissertation will describe what an implementation embodiment of the technology described looks like operationally and as a practical matter. Colorado water law allows transfer of only that portion of the water right which is used by the crop--its "consumptive use" (CU). Once the historic CU is established and adjudicated through Colorado's Water Court, the CU for that water right becomes a known quantity, thus allowing for comprehensive consideration as to how that CU water might be used to the owner's economic advantage. Specifically, a future water use might be to continue farming but to lease or sell a proportion of the quantified CU water to a higher economic use - likely municipal or environmental interests. This dissertation presents factors associated with the use of, and change in, water rights that may be considered by farmers interested in evaluating a package of changed farming practices intended to optimize future revenues. A future low-risk revenue stream may be brought into the farm's revenue forecast by virtue of the lease of a proportional amount of water to a municipal, industrial, or environmental user. Optimization algorithms are used to evaluate a farmer-considered package of changed practices which may include: deficit irrigation, new crops, dryland crops, permanent or rotational fallowing of fields, and crop rotations. Some farmers will also consider upgraded irrigation systems as an aspect of implementing these practices. The farmer-driven optimization may include any or all of these changed practices as well as continued full irrigation of crops. To evaluate and compare multiple practices as a cohesive package and in the context of the option to lease water is new. The simulation and optimization model output assists in comparing historic practices and net returns with future practices and net returns which would include a revenue stream associated with a lease or sale of a proportion of the farmer's CU water. The actual comparison between alternatives is accomplished by evaluating the change in net returns between historic practices and modeled future practices. The model utilizes crop water production functions, some of which are very newly researched and reported, to forecast crop yields based on deficit irrigation practices. The model can utilize up to 20 fields and 18 combinations of irrigation practices and crops. Up to seven deficit irrigation crops per field can be evaluated within a simulation and optimization scenario. Recommendations are made for future research and software development that will incorporate the optimization routines into a larger collection of data inputs and a database intended to help farmers, ditch companies, or cooperative farmer groups manage their consumptive use water under a change decree and aggregated changed practices. It is recommended that the ultimate and fully implemented system include: * A package of technologies under one umbrella software program. * A decision support system (DSS). * A farm operations simulation. * An optimization program for year-to-year evaluation of alternative farm operational strategies and potential for changed practices. * A tool for evaluating a proportional parting off of consumptive use water. * A means of developing and monitoring an annual water use budget. * A database for cataloging historical and current operations of substitute water supply plans or change case decrees. * A monitoring and reporting system for documenting the implementation strategy. * A planning tool used year after year to plan pending annual operations against a farm or farmer cooperative total entity water budget. Primary issues and pitfalls to implementing the process and strategies described are framed by these questions: 1. Can municipal interests view a long term lease as a viable part of their water portfolio and their projected safe yield at a future date? 2. Can farmers accept the perceived dramatic changes to their farming operations? 3. Can the science underpin the strategy sufficiently to satisfy change case objectors and the Colorado Water Court? 4. Can water be physically transferred based on existing water diversion and delivery infrastructure or is new infrastructure required in some cases? 5. Will farmers be interested in and accepting of a long term lease and might they also consider a buyout of the lease at a discounted net present worth? 6. Do existing State of Colorado statutes support the type of water transfer that is described?