Mountain Scholar :: Browsing by Author "Boone, Randall, committee member"

Browsing by Author "Boone, Randall, committee member"

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Open Access
Agrarian transition in the uplands of central Vietnam: drivers of market-oriented land-use and land-cover change
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2019) Saylor, Kirk, author; Leisz, Stephen, advisor; Galvin, Kathleen, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
This study presents an analysis of changing land-use and land-cover in the North Central Coast region of Vietnam for the period in recent decades, during which rural upland communities have become partially integrated into commodity markets. Market integration has resulted from the extension of transportation network infrastructure under the East-West Economic Corridor (EWEC) project completed in mid-2006. This project has improved market connectivity and accessibility between rural and urban areas, creating flows of goods, information, and money induce agrarian transition and influence land-use / land-cover change processes. Analysis of satellite imagery over the last decade shows some signs of possible agricultural intensification along the Highway 9 corridor, while elsewhere in the study area a clear and consistent trendline cannot be ascertained. Confounding factors include usability of imagery, temporal gaps in collection, and the resolution of available and usable imagery. The pattern of changing land-cover emerging along Highway 9 is hypothesized to result from changing land rents, where lower transportation costs and higher agricultural prices increase the profitability of cash cropping, incentivizing local populations to engage in market-oriented production. Such a microeconomic response would be consistent with von Thünen's extrinsic theory of land rent, as well as the multi-scalar frameworks of teleconnections and telecoupling. These dynamics are explored at the village level through a spatially explicit agent-based model that simulates household decision-making using empirically-fitted rules, to better understand the process of transition from subsistence cropping to a mixed mode of production with cash cropping.
Open Access
Arctic Char Salvelinus alpinus can enhance fisheries in reservoirs with trophic constraints
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2014) Olsen, Devin M., author; Johnson, Brett, advisor; Boone, Randall, committee member; Myrick, Christopher, committee member; Lepak, Jesse, committee member
The 20th century was a period of rapid reservoir construction in the western United States. Initially, many of these reservoirs hosted productive recreational fisheries for introduced salmonids, but then waned from oligotrophication, dam operations, and the effects of introduced opossum shrimp Mysis diluviana. Managers have sought alternative fish species that could withstand these trophic constraints. In 1990 the state of Colorado introduced Arctic Char Salvelinus alpinus into Dillon Reservoir hoping they would prey on Mysis and produce a valuable "boutique fishery". My study investigated the outcomes of this introduction. I found that the introduction resulted in a reproducing population, creating one of the only public fisheries for Arctic Char in the lower 48 states of the USA, and the southernmost population in the world. Arctic Char diet was composed primarily of Mysis shrimp, and their growth was among the fastest of lacustrine populations worldwide. While bioenergetics simulations showed that approximately 3-6 times as many Arctic Char would need to be stocked annually to effectively control Mysis shrimp, Arctic Char did channel energy formerly sequestered in Mysis into desirable recreational fish biomass. Despite this desirable ecosystem service, the stocking program is paradoxical. In an era when nonnative species comprise a primary threat to aquatic biodiversity, condoning new introductions is concerning. However, in many human-dominated environments such as reservoirs, exotic fishes already comprise the majority of species. Fishery managers are left with the problem of choosing relatively innocuous strategies that can still provide recreational benefits in systems plagued by a variety of anthropogenic stressors.
Open Access
Climate forecasting, climate-resistant tree species selection, and urban canopy planning for a small, semi-arid city
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2023) Buchholz, Natalie S., author; Klein, Julia, advisor; Boone, Randall, committee member; Ocheltree, Troy, committee member
Globally, there is an increasing shift from rural to urban living, with major implications for the ecosystem services provided by these ecological systems and profound effects on the human communities that continue to migrate to them. Urban canopies and the development of green spaces in the urban environment can mitigate some of the negative effects of urban living such as high Urban Heat Indices (UHI), poor air quality, loss of emotional support from nature, and loss of sense of place. However, the poleward shift of climate envelopes due to climate change will eventually lead to urban canopy collapses as street trees become less suited to their environment. In chapter one of this thesis, I explore this shift and climate-change resistant tree species selections by using WorldClim's current (1971-2000), SSP126 (low emissions) and SSP585 (high emissions) scenarios to generate climate envelope projections for the City of Fort Collins, Colorado in the years 2061-2080. I collected recommended street tree lists from cities that currently exhibit future climate conditions in Fort Collins (hereafter, reference cities) and compared them to the current city of Fort Collins' recommended street tree list. I identified 15 shade trees that have already undergone testing by CSU arborists and are appropriate for immediate planting in Fort Collins, Colorado – these 15 shade tree species comprise the Future Fort Collins Recommended Street Tree list. I identified an additional 21 shade tree species that still require CSU arborist testing for planting suitability – these 21 shade tree species comprise the Future Fort Collins Recommended Street Tree-Test list. The Future Fort Collins Recommended Street Tree and Future Fort Collins Recommended Street Tree-Test lists will inform street tree diversity and planting strategies for the City of Fort Collins, CO, and provide a brief list of species that need further suitability testing by foresters and arborists along the Front Range. Chapter two of this thesis aims to address current canopy inequities in Fort Collins, Colorado, by examining patterns in the city's overall land cover distribution, as well as the built environments and policies that limit canopy expansion. Here I explore canopy and land cover in four census blocks that are at least 25% Hispanic and have a median household income of less than $40k per year. I further dissect these four census blocks into smaller study areas based on zoning type as designated by the City of Fort Collins and Larimer County Assessor's Office. Using a combination of satellite observation and I-Tree canopy analyses I hope to, 1) identify patterns in land and canopy cover across zoning types, and 2) identify factors in the built environment and written policy that limit urban canopy growth in the City of Fort Collins, Colorado. Results will inform canopy care and planting strategies as the city moves to create its first Urban Forest Strategic Plan in the coming years.
Open Access
Communal hunting in the Colorado high country: archaeological investigations of three game drive sites near Rollins Pass, Grand County, Colorado
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Whittenburg, Aaron M., author; LaBelle, Jason M., advisor; Van Buren, Mary, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
The pioneering efforts of James Benedict and Byron Olson demonstrated the importance of alpine communal game drives in the lives of prehistoric Native American populations living in northern Colorado. Their research resulted in numerous books and journal publications on alpine and sub-alpine sites from Rocky Mountain National Park southward to the Indian Peaks Wilderness. Unfortunately, their meticulous work on the spectacular sites at Rollins Pass remained unpublished. This thesis presents their data and additional data collected by the author, Jason LaBelle, and the Center for Mountain and Plains Archaeology at Colorado State University. This thesis is an archaeological investigation of three alpine game drive sites (5GA35, 5GA36, and 5GA37) and a nearby lithic scatter (5GA4268). As of September 2015, 80 hunting blinds, 1,935 meters of walls, and 15 cairns and two additional cairn lines have been recorded between the three game drives. Diagnostic projectile points demonstrate Late Archaic through Late Prehistoric use. The chipped stone debitage assemblage is representative of late-stage production or maintenance of stone tools and only a limited amount of initial reduction occurred on-site. Raw material types for the artifact assemblage are dominated by Middle Park sources, namely Troublesome Formation chert, indicating groups moved into the alpine zone from the intermountain basins from the west. Spatial analysis of blind morphology and density show that groups were constructing game drives in such a way as to maximize the number of hunters near areas of wall convergence in the kill zone, the most critical location of the game drive. The relationship between features and artifacts suggests that artifacts found within 20 meters of blinds are directly related to the hunt itself while artifacts found outside this range may relate to pre-hunt or post-hunt activities. Protein residue analysis suggests that elk and/or deer may have been a target species at these sites. Spatial analyses of the relationship of artifacts to features indicate a limited amount of post-hunt processing occurred in the kill zone, while blinds served critical roles throughout all phases of the hunt. 5GA4268 is interpreted as a specialized processing site associated with 5GA35. Use wear analysis indicates that scraping hide was the dominant activity at 5GA4268. This thesis illustrates the merit of applying spatial analyses to feature and artifact attributes to gain a more holistic interpretation of human behaviors associated with alpine communal hunting sites.
Open Access
Culture, water, livelihoods and adaptation in the complex socio-ecological systems of Colorado, U.S.A.
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2020) Even, Trevor Lee, author; Galvin, Kathleen, advisor; Ojima, Dennis, advisor; Waskom, Reagan, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
This dissertation comprises the results of several years of mixed-methods qualitative research on the socio-ecological systems of the U.S. state of Colorado, with a particular focus on their ability to effectively manage natural resource and ecosystem-related challenges amid intensifying social, environmental, and climatic change. Located at the interface of the Great Plains and the Semi-Arid Western U.S., Colorado faces numerous significant challenges from current escalations of climate variability, future trends towards warming temperatures, intensified urban population growth trends, and growing demand for limited water resources. This work, comprised of the results of two distinct but interrelated projects, therefore asks, in the broadest terms, How are key livelihood and cultural systems in the state engaging with critical natural resource and climate-related risks? Taken to a more granular level, it investigates, 1) What are the most vulnerable components of the socio-ecological systems of Colorado in terms of local expressions of climate change and resource management; 2) How are these systems currently engaging with those vulnerabilities on a cultural level, and 3) How can the interdisciplinary scientific community and policy-makers better align themselves to serve their needs for adaptation? In Part I, titled "Changing Weather and Livelihoods in Rural Colorado," I attempt to answer these questions at a state-wide level. Here, I rely upon interviews with ranchers, farmers, recreational sector experts, and extensive secondary data gathering on the varied ways in which sensitive land-based livelihoods in the state have been impacted by drought, wildfire, flooding, extreme precipitation events, and related phenomena over the last two decades, doing so in order to chart out how leaders in these sectors are adapting to changing weather-related risk profiles. In this, I identify significant vulnerabilities within livelihoods central to rural economics and identity, as well as barriers to current and future adaptation efforts in the form of economic, policy, information access, and cross-cultural communication challenges. As part of this, water – both as a resource and as a site of cultural values – emerges as critical to nearly every future-oriented line of inquiry, as the state's physical and socially constructed patterns of water scarcity weave through nearly every aspect of both its vulnerabilities and its capacity to adapt to climate- and ecologically-driven challenges. In Part II, then, I ask, "How can the state's human-altered hydrological systems – i.e., socio-hydrological systems – approach a level of self-understanding that takes into account the wide range of diverse perspectives and livelihoods associated with water systems at the basin scale?" Titled "Conceptualizations and Valuations of Water in the South Platte Basin," it takes a more zoomed-in approach, examining cultures of water commodification, use, interaction, cultural connection, and risk management across six key viewpoints within the Colorado South Platte Basin's complex and multi-layered water management systems. In this, it attempts to bridge existing gaps within the varied literatures related to water resources management and the social-science investigation of human-water system interactions, aiming to advance understanding of how cultural systems within hydrological basins heavily influenced by human intervention influence contemporary and future dynamics of water management and socially-constructed water scarcity. Based on in-depth interviews with water managers, users, advocates, and consultants from around the region as well as a variety of secondary data, it attempts to sketch out a typology of water valuation and understand across four distinct levels of value and across six distinct viewpoints with implications for the water system's current operation and future capacity to adapt to increasing variability and extreme event risk. It finds significant diversity among different types of actor groups involved in the water decision-making systems of the region, as well as numerous innovative avenues toward bridging these gaps in the form of "hybridized" or "nexus" approaches to water infrastructure development, environmental protection, and flood risk mitigation that capitalize upon multiple value orientations as they enact manipulations of the region's water systems. Finally, I discuss several important gaps identified in the region's cultures of water, including the lack of a meaningful system-wide identity, and the lack of affirmative spaces for creatively imagining the future at the basin scale.
Open Access
Demographic consequences of agricultural practices on a long-lived avian predator
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2022) Vennum, Christopher Ryan, author; Koons, David N., advisor; Pejchar, Liba, committee member; Kendall, Bill, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
To view the abstract, please see the full text of the document.
Open Access
Effects of grazing and community-based management on rangelands of Mongolia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015) Jamsranjav, Chantsallkham, author; Reid, Robin S., advisor; Fernandez-Gimenez, Maria E., advisor; Meiman, Paul, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
To view the abstract, please see the full text of the document.
Open Access
Guiding conservation of golden eagle populations in light of expanding renewable energy development: a demographic and habitat-based approach
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2015) Tack, Jason Duane, author; Noon, Barry, advisor; Fedy, Brad, advisor; Bailey, Larissa, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member; Bowen, Zachary, committee member
Golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetoes) are an iconic wide-ranging predator distributed across the Northern Hemisphere. In western North America, populations are considered to be stable, though there is a mounting concern that an anticipated increase in renewable wind energy development will threaten populations. Wind turbines are a known source of mortality for many avian species including golden eagles, thus there is a pressing need to offer land managers conservation planning guidance in light of future development. Working with several collaborators, I aimed to develop applied research in support of golden eagle conservation, while thoroughly testing the analytical rigor of methods we employed to address such questions. In chapter 1, I developed a stochastic population model for golden eagles with coauthors Zack Bowen, Brad Fedy, and Barry Noon. We sought to develop a model that faithfully captured the population dynamics of a non-migratory golden eagle population in western North America, while accounting for the demographic and environmental (process) variation inherent in vital rates. Using data from multiple long-term studies, we parameterized a stage-based matrix projection model and evaluated the contribution of vital rates to asymptotic population growth rates within a life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) framework. With a life history that is characterized by long-lived individuals with relatively low reproductive output, breeding adult survival dominates population dynamics for golden eagles. Thus it is unfortunate that breeding adult survival is the least-represented vital rate estimated in published literature. Simulating reduced survival across stage-classes revealed that a relatively minor (4%) reduction in survival resulted in a growing population to decline. Furthermore, targeting management at bolstering reproductive output is unlikely to compensate for reduced survival. Productivity rates (young fledged per pair) necessary to produce stable asymptotic growth rates (λ=1), when survival is reduced below 4% often falls above the range observed in field studies. Our findings combine to suggest that mitigating for eagle "take" (mortalities) due to anthropogenic sources including wind development should focus disproportionately on strategies that improve survival among breeding adults. Chapter 2 provides a spatially explicit framework for conservation planning and mitigation for golden eagles with respect to wind development. Co-advisor Brad Fedy and I fit resource selection functions (RSF) to golden eagle nest site data across two major ecoregions across Wyoming. Terrain indices, spatial surrogates for prey density, and landcover explained variation in nest-site locations compared to the available landscape. Overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps allowed us to highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. Our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated, revealing opportunities for conservation practitioners and industry to collaborate on energy siting and mitigation strategies. While these models are useful for conservation planning during a critical life stage in which many eagles are tied to breeding territories, Chapter 3 provides a critical examination of the transient nature of range dynamics during a non-breeding season. Using golden eagle survey data from annual flights across the western US, coauthors Zack Bowen, Brad Fedy, Barry Noon, and I investigate how climate, anthropogenic disturbance, and ecosystem processes converge to influence late summer space use by golden eagles. We found that spatially invariant processes of Gross Primary Productivity and drought severity drive occurrence patterns, while human footprint and terrain ruggedness are more permanent features that explain variation in space use. Our predictive models are helpful for prioritizing conservation efforts for golden eagles, but underscore the large landscapes necessary for conservation for this wide-ranging species. Lastly, in Chapter 4 I worked with colleague Travis Gallo using simulation via " “virtual ecologist" framework to evaluate the potential for misleading inference when applying occupancy analyses to point count data, an increasing common trend particularly in avian research. We found that arbitrary decisions about the scale of sites (e.g. sample units) can lead to highly biased estimates with poor coverage across methodological approaches, especially for species with low detectability. Furthermore, varying patterns of detectability can obfuscate community inference –a common among avian point counts. We applied findings to an empirical dataset of songbird response of habitat-treatments targeted for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) in pinyon-juniper landscapes in northwestern Colorado.
Open Access
Health-livelihoods-environment interactions: health and culture in livelihood decision-making and consequences for the environment in Indonesia
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2020) Clarke, Melinda M., author; Galvin, Kathleen, advisor; Boone, Randall, committee member; Ojima, Dennis, committee member; Vaske, Jerry, committee member
This research examines the role of perceived health status in the livelihood decision-making of rural households and associated impact on the environment. I drew on three social-ecological frameworks to conceptualize relationships between health, livelihoods, and environment. The primary hypothesis examined is that changes in health status result in livelihood strategies that depend on increased natural resource extraction. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected in twelve villages of the Dumoga Valley, North Sulawesi, Indonesia from 2015 to 2016. These data were used to develop an agent-based model that acts as an experimental context to examine health-livelihood-environment over a longer timeframe than was captured through field data collection. Illegal, artisanal gold mining is the primary resource extraction activity included in livelihood strategies. A surprising effect identified in qualitative data analysis was that different ethnic groups in the study site display different responses to health status change and have distinct livelihood strategies. Quantitative data analysis demonstrates a relationship between landlessness and engagement in illegal gold mining, but no relationship between mining and health. Dynamics in the agent-based model suggest that health does affect both the number of miners and amount of land cleared. In addition, the model suggests that natural resources play an important role in short-term livelihood strategies developed in times of ill health.
Open Access
Human environment interactions and collaborative adaptive capacity building in a resilience framework
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Bruss, Peter T., author; Galvin, Kathleen, advisor; Banning, Jim, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member; Reid, Robin, committee member; Thompson, Jessica, committee member
Being firmly in the Anthropocene Era--a period in humanity's evolution where human behavior and dominance is significantly impacting the earth's systems, my research objective was in response to the concern and call of the National Science Foundation and of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change that humanity needs to develop new strategies to tackle complex anthropogenic issues impacting the global environment and that there should be a focus on human behavior to effect change. Through a collaborative tri-phase dual model research initiative in the back country of Burntwater, Arizona in the Houck Chapter on the Navajo Nation, a small group of Navajo, using a photovoice and artvoice technique, began an exploration into community issues and concerns. The outcome confirmed that illegal trash dumping was a serious matter to the community in need of attention. Through multiple community gatherings the illegal trash dumping issue was discussed and explored within the workings of a Participatory Social Frame Work of Action - Collaborative Adaptive Capacity Building (PSFA-CACB) conceptual model. Using data from my field site I was able to partially inform a theoretical agent-based model Taking Care of the Land - Human Environment Interactions (TCL-HEI). Using the TCL-HEI model I was then able to theoretically illustrate within a resilience framework a social-ecological system regime basin shift from an undesirable state to a desirable state. This shift resulted from a change in the system's stability landscape variables through the introduction of a combination of consultative behavior and economic incentive model parameters. The ultimate objective of the tri-phase dual-model approach was to show how local and regional sustainable entrepreneurial and cooperative action might change illegal trash dumping behavior through a recycling and waste-to-fuels processing program. I further show how the effect of such an initiative would result in mitigating environmental degradation by lessening illegal trash dumping sites and landfill deposits while creating jobs and empowering a local population. It is my hope that the ramifications of this study might be considered at the Chapter, Agency and Nation levels on the Navajo Nation to explore possibilities of contracting-out for the development of a clean-energy waste-to-fuels processing facility and program.
Open Access
Modeling riparian vegetation responses to flow alteration by dams and and climate change
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2013) Auerbach, Daniel Albert, author; Poff, N. LeRoy, advisor; Bledsoe, Brian, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member; Merritt, David, committee member; Webb, Colleen, committee member
As the interface between freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems, riparian vegetation is a critical influence on biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem service production along river corridors. Understanding how altered environmental drivers will affect this vegetation is therefore central to sound watershed management. A river's flow regime exerts a primary control on the type and abundance of riparian vegetation, as differing adaptations to changing discharge levels mediate plant recruitment and persistence. Models of the relationships between flow and vegetation, generalized across species in terms of flow response traits such as flood tolerance, provide a means to explore the consequences of hydrologic alteration resulting from dams and climate change. I addressed these issues through development of a stage-structured model of woody riparian vegetation driven by variation in annual high flows. Simulation experiments offered insight into the potential trajectories of competing vegetation trait types relative to scenarios of dam construction, re-operation and removal. Modifying the size and frequency of the floods responsible for both disturbance mortality and establishment opportunities altered the relative abundance of pioneer and upland cover. Yet, qualitative differences in simulated outcomes resulted from alternative assumptions regarding seed limitation and floodplain stabilization, illustrating the need to carefully consider how these factors may shape estimated and actual vegetation responses to river regulation. In addition, I linked this simulation approach with an integrated watershed-modeling framework to assess the relative risk of invasion by the introduced plant Tamarix under multiple climate change scenarios. Though warming may increase the potential for Tamarix range expansion by weakening thermal constraints, the results of this work supported the expectation that hydrogeomorphic variation will control how this potential is realized. With simulated invasion risk strongly dependent on shifts in both the magnitude and timing of high flows, model outcomes underscored the importance of accounting for multiple, interacting flow regime attributes when evaluating the spread of introduced species in river networks. This research suggested the utility of simplified but process-based simulations of riparian flow-ecology relationships, demonstrating that such models can establish a first approximation of the potential consequences of management decisions and can highlight key questions for additional research, particularly where data are scarce and uncertainty is high.
Open Access
Partnerships on Colorado conservation lands: social-ecological outcomes of collaborative grazing management
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2022) Monlezun, Anna Clare, author; Lynn, Stacy, advisor; Boone, Randall, committee member; Jones, Kelly, committee member; Rhoades, Ryan, committee member
To view the abstract, please see the full text of the document.
Open Access
Population assessment of burrowing owls nesting on black-tailed prairie dog colonies in Colorado
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2024) Albright, Sarah, author; Kendall, William, advisor; Conrey, Reesa, committee member; Pejchar, Liba, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
In North America, grassland birds have experienced steeper and more widespread declines than any other avian guild due to habitat loss resulting from grassland conversion to cropland, increasing urban and energy development, and climate change (Knopf 1994, Askins et al. 2007). The historical area of native grasslands has decreased by 62% since the 1800s and contributed to the loss of nearly 40% of grassland bird populations since 1966 (Wilsey et al. 2019). Heterogeneity in climate, grazing, and fire across the landscape have resulted in the existence of different grassland types that vary in structure and composition. The shortgrass prairie is the driest and warmest of the Great Plains grasslands and is dominated by low-growing perennial grasses, forbs, and shrubs. The shortgrass prairie provides vital nesting and foraging habitat for many grassland birds. In Colorado, approximately 50% of the historic shortgrass prairie has been converted to other land uses (Neely et al. 2006). The partial loss of shortgrass prairie habitat has ecological consequences including loss of native vegetation and decreases in populations of grassland species, including grassland birds. Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are important drivers of ecosystem function in the shortgrass prairie because their colonial social structure, burrowing and foraging behaviors alter the landscape and provide areas of shorter vegetation and burrow systems that support increased biodiversity of animals and plants (Cully et al. 2010). Black-tailed prairie dogs function as a keystone species in shortgrass prairie ecosystems and create important breeding and foraging habitat for grassland birds including western burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia hypugaea: Smith and Lomolino 2004). The western burrowing owl is a small diurnal raptor that lives in grasslands, deserts, and other open habitats. It is a partially migratory species where populations in the southern parts of its range in the southwestern United States, Mexico, and portions of Central and South America are typically year-round residents. Migratory populations occur in the grasslands of North America, arriving in early spring to start breeding as far north as Canada and departing in late August to return to their wintering grounds in the southwestern United States and Mexico (Poulin et al. 2011). Burrowing owls typically nest in burrows dug by rodents such as prairie dogs and ground squirrels. In eastern Colorado, burrowing owls almost exclusively nest on black-tailed prairie dog colonies. Benefits of nesting on prairie dog colonies include increased predator detection from alarm calls, decreased predation due to the dilution effect, and reduced vegetation height. Black-tailed prairie dog populations have experienced an estimated decline of 90-98% since 1900 due to sylvatic plague outbreaks and habitat loss and alteration by human development (Miller et al. 1994, Desmond et al. 2000). Since prairie dog colonies provide critical habitat for burrowing owls and other species, population decline contributes to decreased availability of burrowing owl nesting habitat. Conservation status of the burrowing owl varies across its range. It is a species of conservation concern in the western United States, threatened in Mexico, and endangered in Canada (Sheffield 1997). The western burrowing owl is currently listed as a state-threatened species in Colorado and is designated as a Tier 1 Species of Greatest Conservation Need in Colorado's State Wildlife Action Plan (Colorado Parks and Wildlife 2015). The last burrowing owl population assessment in Colorado was conducted in 2005 (Tipton et al. 2008, 2009) and since then, only local surveys limited in spatial and temporal extent have been conducted. This has prompted the need for an updated population assessment of burrowing owls nesting in eastern Colorado, where the majority of Colorado's burrowing owls breed on black-tailed prairie dog colonies. In this study, we provide an updated status assessment for burrowing owls on Colorado's eastern plains and seek to expand the current understanding of which black-tailed prairie dog colony attributes have the highest value for burrowing owl occupancy, density, and productivity. We specifically examined how colony size, activity status, and vegetation characteristics influence these population parameters on 175 survey plots throughout eastern Colorado. We surveyed some of the same plots using similar methodology as Tipton et al. (2008, 2009) in their 2005 study, facilitating comparisons of burrowing owl populations 17–18 years later. The first chapter describes the distribution of burrowing owls nesting on black-tailed prairie dog colonies in eastern Colorado and serves to examine which black-tailed prairie dog colony characteristics drive the use of a colony by burrowing owls and the probability of successful reproduction. The second chapter focuses on burrowing owl density, productivity, and abundance in eastern Colorado to determine how many burrowing owls are present on occupied colonies and how productive they are on colonies where they do reproduce. The value of describing these components of burrowing owl populations in separate chapters comes from estimating and identifying the drivers of burrowing owl occupancy in chapter 1, then shifting to the finer scale of density to determine if the drivers of burrowing owl distribution are also driving density, productivity, and abundance. We used a black-tailed prairie dog colony shapefile prepared by the Colorado Natural Heritage Program for Colorado Parks and Wildlife in 2020 as our sampling frame. This shapefile includes polygons that represent black-tailed prairie dog colonies with digitized boundaries, created using imagery collected in 2019 by the National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP). We used a spatially balanced sampling design to select potential plots and selected new samples for each survey year (2022 and 2023) to maximize sample size and spatial coverage of the large study region. From early May through early August, we conducted four surveys on 175 plots in eastern Colorado, counting all burrowing owls seen, with two visits occurring prior to juvenile emergence and two occurring after. We estimated occupancy using a static multistate occupancy estimation model with two states: 'occupied' and 'occupied with successful reproduction'. We estimated density and abundance using distance sampling methods. We estimated productivity using a zero-inflated beta generalized linear model. We used occupancy data from Tipton et al. (2008) and dynamic occupancy models to evaluate burrowing owl local colonization and local extinction between 2005 and 2022 - 2023. Our analyses indicate that burrowing owl occupancy and density are highest in southern Colorado and lowest in northern Colorado. Colonies with higher prairie dog activity level had higher probability of reproduction and higher densities of adult burrowing owls. Vegetation height was the main driver of juvenile density such that colonies with taller vegetation supported lower densities of juvenile owls. We estimated burrowing owl occupancy to be 0.84 (95% CI [0.62, 0.95]) and probability of successful reproduction on occupied plots to be 0.86 (95% CI [0.70, 0.94]). We estimated an average density of 3.47 (95% CI [2.79, 4.15]) adult owls/km2 prior to juvenile emergence, 8.20 (95% CI [6.39, 10.00]) adult owls/km2 after juvenile emergence, and 18 juveniles/km2 (95% CI [13.86-23.66]). We expanded our density estimates to our sampling frame and estimated that there were 4,913 (95% CI [3,948-5,875]) adult owls prior to juvenile emergence, 11,613 (95% CI [5,333-17,893]) adult owls after juvenile emergence, and 26,580 (95% CI [19,623-33,537]) juvenile burrowing owls on black-tailed prairie dog colonies in eastern Colorado. We found that prairie dog activity had a positive effect on burrowing owl density, successful reproduction, and productivity regardless of prairie dog colony size. This indicates that burrowing owls are effectively utilizing and nesting on small prairie dog colonies in eastern Colorado, which could make them more resilient to breeding season habit loss, fragmentation, or degradation. In addition, we found that northern Colorado had lower burrowing owl occupancy and adult density, but had a similar probability of successful reproduction and juvenile density compared to south and central Colorado. If northern Colorado can sustain stable burrowing owl densities, burrowing owl populations may have enough successful reproduction to maintain stable populations. The covariates we investigated in this study did not adequately explain this spatial pattern. However, it is likely that differences in climate, prairie dog population dynamics, land use, or some other factor could cause differences in local habitat and breeding conditions across Colorado. The previous burrowing owl population assessment in eastern Colorado estimated burrowing owl occupancy to be 0.80 (95% CI [0.66-0.89]), density to be 3.04 adult owls/km2 (95% CI [2.15, 5.13]), and adult abundance to be 3,554 (95% CI [3,928-8,445]) owls in eastern Colorado. This suggests that overall, burrowing owl populations in eastern Colorado are relatively stable and are likely to remain stable if efforts continue to preserve the prairie dog colonies that are vital for burrowing owls during the breeding season. The burrowing owl is a state-threatened species in Colorado at the time of this thesis and thus we recommend future burrowing owl surveys to track population changes through time. Future monitoring efforts can help identify the drivers of burrowing owl population change and clarify the spatial patterns we found. These future efforts should occur more frequently than the ~17 year time period between this population assessment and the last assessment in 2005. We recommend conducting burrowing owl surveys every 5 years because it exceeds the time lag between black-tailed prairie dog colony local extinction and cessation of burrowing owl nesting. In addition, a 5 year time interval coincides with the timing of the Colorado Natural Heritage Program's black-tailed prairie dog mapping efforts in eastern Colorado, from which we constructed our sampling frame. Using updated mapping efforts is vital for monitoring efforts because it may decrease the probability that a plot selected from the sampling frame contains a prairie dog colony that has gone locally extinct. We recommend future efforts should select new plots to survey for burrowing owls in addition to resurveying a subset of the plots from this study. Revisiting sites from this study would be helpful in determining burrowing owl population trends through time, while selecting new plots can increase the spatial coverage of surveys. This 2-year study provides an updated status assessment of burrowing owl populations across the black-tailed prairie dog range in Colorado that will help calibrate burrowing owl population models incorporating prairie dog colony extent, inform future monitoring plans, and help guide conservation of keystone species and their communities.
Open Access
Population ecology of feral horses in an era of fertility control management
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2012) Ransom, Jason Ian, author; Hobbs, N. Thompson, advisor; Baker, Dan, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member; Bruemmer, Jason, committee member
Management of wildlife often requires intervention to regulate growth of populations that would otherwise become overabundant. Controlling fecundity using contraceptives has become an increasingly popular tool for attempting to manage locally overabundant wildlife species, but the population-level effects of such applications are largely unknown. Contraceptive treatments can produce unexpected feedbacks that act on births, survival, immigration, and emigration. Such feedbacks may considerably influence our ability to regulate populations using fertility control. I followed feral horses (Equus caballus) in three intensively managed populations to assess longitudinal treatment effects on demography. The transient contraceptive porcine zona pellucida (PZP) produced longer duration of infertility than intended. Repeated PZP vaccinations of females extended the duration of infertility far beyond the targeted management period, with time to first post-treatment parturition increasing 411days for every annual inoculation received. When these animals did conceive and give birth, parturition was later in the year and temporally asynchronous with forage abundance. An average of 30% (range=11-77%) of females were contracepted annually during the treatment period in all three populations and apparent annual population growth rate was 4-9% lower in the post-treatment years as compared to pretreatment years. Population growth was positive, however, and increased steadily every year that a management removal did not occur. The observed number of births was 33% fewer than the expected number of births, based on number of treated females, individual efficacy of treatment, and number of untreated females and their age-specific fecundity rates. Only half of this difference was explained by the apparent residual effect of treatment. Birth rate in the youngest untreated females (age 2-5 years old) was reduced in years when their conspecifics were treated, enhancing the effects of treatment at the population-level. This was partially offset by increased survival in adults, including a 300% increase in presence of horses >20 years old during the post-treatment period. In closed populations of feral horses, the positive feedbacks appear to outweigh the negative feedbacks and generate a larger contraceptive effect than the sum of individual treatments. The role of fertility control is uncertain for open populations of many wildlife species, with broad consensus across a synthesis of research that negative feedbacks on fertility control performance are occurring, and in many cases increased survival and increased immigration can compensate entirely for the reduction in births attributed to treatment. Understanding species' life-history strategies, biology, behavioral ecology, and ecological context is critical to developing realistic expectations of regulating wildlife populations using fertility control.
Open Access
Statistical methods for modeling the movement and space-use of carnivores
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Buderman, Frances E., author; Hooten, Mevin, advisor; Boone, Randall, committee member; Crooks, Kevin, committee member; Ivan, Jacob, committee member
Recent advancements in the ability to monitor animal locations through time has led to a rapidly expanding field focused on statistical models for animal movement. However, many of the existing methods are computationally time-consuming to fit, restricting their application to a few individuals, and inaccessible to wildlife management practitioners. In addition, existing movement models were developed for contemporary animal location data. Many previously collected telemetry data sets may provide important information on animal movement, but there may be additional challenges that are not present in data collected explicitly for movement modeling. For example, telemetry data collected for survival studies may have large temporal gaps, and long-term studies may have used multiple data collection methods, resulting in data points with different error structures. My goal is to develop and expand on methods for modeling individual- and population-level animal movement in a flexible and computationally accessible framework. In Chapter 1, I discuss the role of carnivores in natural resource management and the habitat associations and movement ecology of two carnivores native to Colorado, Canada lynx and cougars. I describe the existing data sets, collected by Colorado Parks and Wildlife, that are available for analyzing Canada lynx and cougar movement ecology. I also discuss contemporary statistical methods for analyzing animal telemetry data. Finally, I conclude with my research objectives. Chapter 2 presents a new framework for modeling the unobserved paths of telemetered individuals while accounting for measurement error. Many available telemetry data sets were not collected for the purposes of movement modeling, making the use of existing methods challenging due to large temporal gaps and varying monitoring protocols. In contrast to the more traditional mechanistic movement models that appear in the literature, I propose a phenomenological functional model for animal movement. The movement process is approximated with basis functions (e.g., splines), which are an extremely flexible statistical tool that allows for complex, non-linear movement patterns at different temporal scales. In addition, the observed data contains complicated error structures that vary across telemetry type. I then apply this model to a case-study of two Canada lynx that were reintroduced to Colorado and show that inference about spatio-temporal movement behaviors can be obtained from the unobserved paths. For Chapter 3, I apply a population-level version of the functional movement model, developed in Chapter 1, to 153 Canada lynx that were released in Colorado as part of a state reintroduction program. Twelve offspring of the reintroduced individuals were also included in the analysis. I perform a post hoc analysis of movement paths using spatial visualizations and linear mixed models, allowing the different movement behaviors to vary as a function of season, sex, reproductive status, and reintroduction timeline. This chapter represents one of the most comprehensive analyses of Canada lynx movement in the continental United States. In Chapter 4, I discuss the fine-scale movement of cougars in the Colorado Front Range using a continuous-time discrete-space (CTDS) framework. The CTDS framework is computationally fast, flexible, and easily implemented in standard statistical programs. This chapter focuses on a population-level extension of the CTDS framework that can be used to model the population- and individual-level effect of landscape variables on movement rates and directionality. I use this model to determine potential drivers of cougar movement in the Colorado Front Range, a rapidly urbanizing area in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. This work also uses the functional model I developed in Chapter 1, but with an error structure more appropriate for small-error GPS data. I conclude with a summary of findings, overarching themes, and potential future research directions in Chapter 5.
Open Access
Studies on the Odonata and Trichoptera of high-elevation lakes of northern Colorado and southern Wyoming
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2021) Al Mousa, Moh'd Anwar, author; Nachappa, Punya, advisor; Fairchild, Mathew, advisor; Boone, Randall, committee member
Freshwater biodiversity loss is a major concern, and global warming is already causing a significant role in species extinctions. The main goal of this research was to provide a baseline for specific aquatic insect species distributions at high-elevation lentic habitats in Northcentral Colorado and Southern Wyoming. I provided occurrence records of the Hudsonian Emerald dragonfly (Somatochlora hudsonica, HED) in Northcentral Colorado and Southern Wyoming. The HED is the only Colorado dragonfly listed as threatened by the US Forest Service. It was ranked as critically imperiled in Colorado and vulnerable in Wyoming. I used Maxent (Maximum entropy), a machine learning program that uses species presence data and environmental variables to predict the potentially suitable habitat for species. Maxent was used to plot a map of the potentially suitable habitats of HED. Temperature seasonality, mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, precipitation of driest quarter, and precipitation seasonality were the key environmental factors for predicting the occurrence of HED in appropriate high-elevation lakes of Northcentral Colorado and Southern Wyoming with an accumulated contribution of 91%. Results of this study provided baseline data for the US Forest Service to assist to evaluate the conservation status of HED and potentially initiate protection plans in two national forests (The Arapaho & Roosevelt National Forest and the Medicine Bow & Routt National Forest) in Colorado and Wyoming. I report adult caddisflies from 136 montane and alpine lentic habitats, primarily lakes, of seven northern Colorado counties for the first time. My objective was to provide species records of adult and larval caddisflies from high-altitude lentic habitats that are not generally well sampled. These lakes may be potentially impacted by current and future global climate change scenarios. Field collection of adults and rearing of larvae were included with available unpublished and published records, resulting in 541 confirmed records of caddisfly species. Forty-nine species, representing 24% of all known Colorado caddisflies are documented. Seven families and 24 genera are represented. The Limnephilidae comprised 76% of the 49 recorded species. The other six families were usually represented by only one to four species. Distribution maps are presented for the six families and the most common limnephilid species. Montane and alpine lakes are vulnerable ecosystems likely to be impacted by climate change. Comprehensive faunal surveys are key to understanding long–term biodiversity changes and establishing conservation needs and priorities. In addition, species lists of taxa are important to monitor future faunal biodiversity changes.
Open Access
Taxonomic distinctions in the 3D micromorphology of tooth marks with application to feeding traces from Middle Bed II, Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) Muttart, Matthew V., author; Pante, Michael C., advisor; LaBelle, Jason, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
Reconstructing the ecology of Early Stone Age archaeological sites is critical to understanding the conditions and behaviors that led to these accumulations, particularly as hominins encroached upon the larger carnivore guild by regularly consuming flesh and marrow from mammal carcasses; a dietary shift which is often considered a catalyst towards increased brain and body size. However, due to the paucity of both hominin and carnivore body fossils in the archaeological record, little is known about the specific carnivore taxa that hominins were competing and interacting with. The abundance of carnivore tooth marked bone at these early archaeological sites highlights the potential of these traces to help refine our knowledge of past hominin and carnivore interactions by linking specific carnivore taxa to the feeding traces found on fossil bones. This thesis seeks to determine if variations in a carnivore's tooth mark morphology can be used to differentiate between carnivore actors using feeding traces found in the archaeological record. Previous research seeking to link carnivores to their feeding traces have examined gross bone damage capabilities, gnawing damage patterns, and measurements of tooth pits from digital photographs. These findings have only been able to link body size of consumers to the levels of damage or size of tooth marks inflicted on bone surfaces during feeding. These findings are limited by the qualitative or two-dimensional analyses on which they are based, but highlight the potential for more advanced techniques of data collection and analysis. Controlled feeding experiments were conducted for seven species of modern mammalian carnivores and a single species of crocodile. Scans of individual tooth marks were produced using a Nanovea white-light confocal profilometer, while 3D models of the marks were analyzed with Digital Surf's Mountains Software. Tooth marks found on fossils from Middle Bed II, Olduvai Gorge, were scanned and compared against an actualistic sample of tooth marks. Quantitative analysis and statistical comparison of 3D measurements can be used to characterize taxonomic distinctions of tooth mark morphology between certain species as well as to link some fossil feeding traces to specific carnivore taxa. This method provides a means to identify specific carnivore actors from their feeding traces, potentially enhancing our ecological reconstructions of Early Stone Age archaeological sites and understanding of hominin-carnivore interactions as they relate to early hominin diet and behavior.
Open Access
The impact of armed conflict on agricultural production the case of Libya: 1970-2017
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2022) Bdawi, Elbahlul, author; Hoag, Dana, advisor; Graff, Gregory, committee member; Kling, Robert, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
I examine the long-term impacts of a recent civil war on the agricultural sector within Libya. Due to the associated destruction and market disruption, armed conflict affects the agricultural sector in complex ways including reducing future growth potential by eroding physical and environmental capital. Libya, with its arid climate, low soil fertility and low agricultural productivity, represents an underdeveloped sector that minimizes the inherent complexity to investigate this impact. However, governmental interest in the agricultural sector has been inconsistent as the dominant oil revenue compensates for agricultural deficits through large subsidies. This absence of attention and oversight has resulted in a lack of quality agricultural data, making it difficult to develop beneficial policies to improve sector growth. Based on its simplicity and ease of interpretation, a Cobb-Douglas style production function with Solow-Swan modification is used to characterize the agricultural sector. Though limited, data was collected from FAO and ILO on land, irrigation, fertilizer, machinery, and labor in Libya spanning from 1970 to 2017 covering periods of stability and conflict in order to estimate agricultural sector growth compared to the status quo. To account for the long-term impacts of conflict on growth, inputs are divided into environmental capital, physical capital, and labor. Next, elasticity parameters are estimated through an OLS regression of the Cobb-Douglas production function before and after conflict. A Chow/QLR test is used to confirm the existence and timing of the structural break in the production function arising at the onset of the 2011 conflict. Finally, the impact of post-conflict growth rates are compared using the pre-conflict and conflict regression parameters. Changes in the estimated parameters from the start of the conflict were significant at the 5% level for both the labor and physical inputs, while the environmental elasticity parameter change was not significant. The conflict elasticity estimates were -0.518, -0.803, and -18.9 for the Physical, Environmental and Labor inputs, compared to their pre-con ict values of 0.107, 0.146, and 1.315, respectively. The two key questions are whether the growth path can recover to pre-conflict levels and the associated production losses resulting over the period the sector takes to return to those pre-conflict rates. A preliminary cost-analysis was applied to estimate the required investment to generate an increase in agricultural GDP. The most cost-efficient way to increase the production after conflict (under the assumption of a return to pre-conflict elasticities) is to increase the quantity/quality of fertilizer used. Increasing machinery is the least efficient way to grow the sector GDP. This may reflect two realities in Libya: weak soil quality and inefficient use of machinery, due to diseconomies of size with smaller plots. Lessons from conflicts in other post-conflict countries suggest that a necessary but insufficient condition is the application of good agricultural policies to rebuild the sector. New policies could improve agricultural returns to surpass losses due to conflict if post-conflict productivity is improved. These policies must be combined with good management and reliable data to effect positive changes within the sector. In Libya's case, the primary post-conflict policies should include improving data collection and focusing on increased education and training to enhance the agricultural sector's rehabilitation. I estimated 3 specific scenarios of the post-conflict future consisting of business-as-usual (BAU), a scenario with convergence between the pre-conflict and post-conflict growth paths within 50 years, and another with a convergence of 20 years. Based on the experiences of other post-conflict countries, Libya's agricultural production will likely converge back to the pre-conflict agricultural GDP trajectory within 10-15 years, so long as there is a minimal transition period and agricultural policies are consistent and well managed. The expected cost to the economy is measured by the discounted difference between the pre-conflict trajectory GDP and the estimated post-conflict GDP until the convergence point. For the likely 20 year convergence, there is an estimated opportunity cost of USD2010 25.0 billion. Should the sector return to business-as-usual, the present discounted value of the conflict is USD2010 49.0 billion. The impact of the conflict is lessened by poor productivity before the conflict. It appears that the conflict slowed business-as-usual, but did not significantly erode environmental capital, which would further cripple the recovery.
Open Access
Understanding protected areas: an analysis of drivers of forest loss and conservation trends
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2022) Powlen, Kathryn Ann, author; Gavin, Michael, advisor; Boone, Randall, committee member; Jones, Kelly, committee member; Solomon, Jennifer, committee member
Global forests harbor much of the world's terrestrial biodiversity, provide critical ecosystem services, and directly support the livelihoods of over a billion people. Nonetheless, forest cover continues to decline rapidly, largely due to human-driven land use changes, such as conversion for agriculture, urban expansion, and increased forest market demands. Protected areas are one of the most common conservation tools used to counter global forest loss. However, forest conversion has been found to persist in protected areas globally. Understanding the diverse factors driving forest cover change in protected area is critical for ensuring forest conservation success. This dissertation contributes evidence to help advance our understanding of protected area performance through three empirical manuscripts. Each manuscript uses a unique approach to examine drivers of conservation outcomes in protected areas at different scales. All three manuscripts are focused on Mexico's protected area network. The first manuscript uses a machine learning approach – random forest regression – to identify the main drivers of deforestation in protected areas across Mexico. By comparing the relative importance of multiple socioeconomic, biophysical, and protected area design characteristics in driving forest loss, this manuscript highlights the important role that placement characteristics, such as topography and proximity to development, can play in protected area conservation success. Additionally, results from this manuscript demonstrate the nonlinearity of the relationships between most forest loss predictors and observed deforestation. The second manuscript uses a propensity score matching approach to quantify the influence of protected area management effectiveness on forest loss outcomes in protected areas across Mexico. This manuscript finds critical evidence that protected areas with high levels of management effectiveness reduce forest loss to a greater extent than those with lower management effectiveness. This manuscript also finds that multiple dimensions of management, such as effective planning, collaborative decision-making, equitable benefit sharing, as well as sufficient financial and human resources, can contribute to the reduction of forest loss. The final manuscript examines how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced protected areas and conservation outcomes across Mexico. This manuscript measures protected area managers' perceptions of the impacts of the pandemic on protected area inputs, mechanisms, moderators, and non-compliance. We find a perceived decrease in human capacity, monitoring capacity, and tourism, and an increase in a number of non-compliant activities in 2020 compared to 2019. Understanding how protected areas are impacted by unexpected global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic is critical for building more resilient protected area networks in the future. Together the three manuscripts demonstrate the range of factors that can influence protected area performance, including landscape characteristics, protected area management practices, and global events. By advancing our understanding of the factors influencing protected area performance, we can improve conservation planning, more strategically allocate resources, and more proactively protect key biodiversity areas in the future.
Open Access
Using ecological niche modeling to identify the potential range of novel invasive toadflax genotypes in the U.S. northern Rockies
(Colorado State University. Libraries, 2017) McCartney, Kevin R., author; Ward, Sarah, advisor; Kumar, Sunil, committee member; Sing, Sharlene, committee member; Boone, Randall, committee member
Dalmatian toadflax (Linaria dalmatica [L.] Mill.) and yellow toadflax (Linaria vulgaris Mill.) are vigorous invasive weeds posing significant management challenges. Predictions of suitable environments for these aggressive, emergent hybrid taxa are urgently required. Publishing predictive maps of the potential geographic distribution of toadflax will facilitate weed and land managers' efforts in maximizing limited resources for locating and controlling present and future populations of these invaders. The invaded ranges of Dalmatian and yellow toadflax span the Intermountain West, which encompasses the study area (i.e. Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado). These two species are listed as noxious weeds in all three states, with legal requirements for control in Wyoming and Colorado. Their hybrid progeny have even greater invasive potential; yet, relatively little is known about the current distribution of – and management approaches for – the hybrid. Ecological niche modeling with MaxEnt was performed for each taxon to identify favorable environmental characteristics and to predict fundamental niches in the study area. Areas at high risk of hybrid invasion were identified based on: a) known hybrid occurrence and associated environmental conditions; b) zones environmentally suitable for co-occurrence of the parental species; and c) areas common to both a) and b). Hybridization hot spots were predicted for western Montana; northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern Wyoming; and the Western Slope and Front Range of Colorado. Model output also indicated that hybrid toadflax would have greater ecological amplitude than its progenitors, with potential hybrid invasion in much of north central Montana where the parental species have not been reported. These methods for predicting the distribution of an emerging hybrid taxon with little occurrence data can be applied to similar taxa. Managers working to control the spread of toadflax can use these results to prioritize areas of high invasion risk. To solicit feedback from those involved with managing toadflax, seven people were interviewed regarding their level of knowledge of hybrid toadflax and the usability of the maps. There was a lack of awareness among interviewees regarding the potential geographic spread of the hybrid, and there were six requests for localized hot spot maps. By generating predictive maps of hybrid toadflax distribution and reaching out to weed and land managers, awareness of this taxon will increase and managers will be attentive to ongoing biocontrol and herbicide research.