Title: Modeling U.S. cattle movements until the cows come home: who ships to whom and how many? Authors: Stefan Sellman, Lindsay Beck-Johnson, Clayton Hallman, Ryan S. Miller, Katharine A. Owers Bonner, Katie Portacci, Colleen T. Webb, Tom Lindström Departments: Department of Physics, Chemistry and Biology, Division of Theoretical Biology, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America License: See LICENSE.txt Abstract: Livestock movements between agricultural premises is an important pathway for the spread of infectious disease. Data providing details about the origin and destination of shipments, as well as information about the shipment size is an important component of computer models used to formulate mitigation strategies and design surveillance programs. The United States (U.S.) currently lacks a comprehensive database of farm animal shipments, which hinders such efforts. With the U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM), earlier work has successfully scaled up from limited data based on interstate certificates of veterinary inspection (CVI) to comprehensive county-level shipment networks at the national scale. In this work, we present three major improvements to earlier versions of USAMM: (1) increased resolution of the model and simulated networks to the level of individual premises; (2) predictions of shipment sizes; (3) taking into account the types and herd sizes of the premises. We fitted parameters in a Bayesian framework to two sets of CVI data consisting of sub-samples of one year's between-state beef and dairy shipments. Through posterior predictive simulation, we then created 1,000 synthetic beef and dairy networks, which we make publicly available to support livestock disease modeling. The simulated networks were validated against summary statistics of the training data as well as out-of-sample CVI data from subsequent years. This new development opens up the possibility of using USAMM in a broader spectrum of applications where information about shipment size and premises identity is necessary and gives novel insights into the U.S. cattle shipment network. Files: This repository contains the following README.txt LICENSE.txt cattle_FLAPS_for_USAMMv3.txt USAMMv3_cattle_networks.zip (with subfolders beef_networks and dairy_networks) Description: Each file in the zipped subfolders of USAMMv3_cattle_networks represents a single simulated cattle shipment network among the counties of the contiguous United States, generated from the U.S. Animal Movement Model (USAMM) version 3. Each file is a tab-delimited .txt file with 14 columns: oCountyId - Origin county FIPS code. dCountyId - Destination county FIPS code. dayOfYear - Day 1 = 1/1, day 365 = 12/31. volume - Number of animal shipped. commodity - Beef (b) or dairy (d). period - Quarter of the year. oStateAbbr - Origin state abbreviation. dStateAbbr - Destination state abbreviation. oPremId - Origin premises id. Matches ids from the premises data (FLAPS) file. dPremId - Destination premises id. Matches ids from the premises data (FLAPS) file. oPty - Origin premises type (Frm, farm; Fdl, feedlot; Mkt, market). oBinnedSize - Binned herd size of origin premises (for farms and feedlots) or yearly turn over volume (market). dPty - Destination premises type (Frm, farm; Fdl, feedlot; Mkt, market). dBinnedSize - Binned herd size of destination premises (for farms and feedlots) or yearly turn over volume (market). Files in the beef_networks folder describe shipment networks for beef production only. Files in the dairy_networks folder describe shipment networks for dairy production only. Each zipped folder contains 1000 files, representing 1000 shipment networks. An accompanying file, cattle_FLAPS_for_USAMMv3.txt, is provided with FLAPS file information. Id - Premises id matching id columns in cattle network files. County- County FIPS code. X/Y - Projected coordinates. Lat/Lon - Latitude and longitude. type - b (beef farm), d (dairy farm), f (feedlot), m (market). b - Number of beef animals. For markets this is the estimated annual volume of cattle (i.e. unspecified if it it beef or dairy). d - Number of dairy animals. Funding: This work is supported by funding provided by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate under contract number D15PC00278. The findings and conclusions in this preliminary publication have not been formally disseminated by the US Department of Agriculture and should not be construed to represent any agency determination or policy. The analyses, views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the regulatory opinions, official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Keywords: animal movement, network prediction, cattle Spatial Coverage: Contiguous United States Temporal Coverage: 2009 Associated publications: Sellman, S., Beck-Johnson, L. M., Hallman, C., Miller, R. S., Owers Bonner, K. A., Portacci, K., Webb, C. T., Lindström, T., 2022. Modeling U.S. cattle movements until the cows come home: Who ships to whom and how many? Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 203, 107483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2022.107483 Additional notes: Download county FIPS code tables at https://www.census.gov/geo/reference/codes/cou.html